The knock against non BCS teams is that they play weak schedules and that they are ranked too high. Boise State and Ball State are undefeated but no one believes they would be undefeated in a BCS conference. They might be 5-5 in the SEC or the Big 12. Boise State would have trouble going undefeated in the Mountain West but it isn't their fault that they are in the WAC. Fairly or unfairly, Utah, BYU and TCU haven't had the same criticism levied against them because of the relative strength of the MWC this year. While I do feel that winning the MWC means something, I'm not sure if BYU's schedule has proven that they are a top 20 team.
BYU is ranked 14th in the coaches poll, 17th in the BCS but their ranking largely lies in being ranked highly in the preseason from last year's success. BYU fans will boast that they have a very healthy 9-1 record. They are also one of 11 teams in division 1A football with one loss or less. If they win the next two games they will be conference co-champions of the fourth best conference. Their only loss came to an 18th ranked TCU team with a very good defense. All of this is impressive except it disguses their awful schedule. Computer numbers have BYU's strength of schedule as low as 107(Sagarin ratings) which isn't much different than Boise State(115) and Ball State(118.) When the schedule was made, BYU didn't know that Washington was going to the worst team in college football. Same for UCLA being worse than last year. Here is BYU's schedule game by game.
1. W - Northern Iowa at home. Win fodder against an AA team. Every D1A football team other than Michigan beats this team. Can't count this win.
2. W - at Washington(0-9). Close win in the last second against a team that hasn't won a game all year. A win is a win. Washington's closest loss was 35-28 to Stanford.
3. W - UCLA(3-6) at home. The shutout isn't looking so hot right now as UCLA's best win is against 5-5 Stanford. One of those 5 wins was against Washington.
4. W - Wyoming(4-7) at home. Another meaningless shutout. Best win is against a Tennessee team with a lame duck coach. Still a nice win for the MWC!
5. W - at Utah State(2-8). Best win is against Hawaii. Boise State also crushed this team. Rivalry games count a little bit but does Michigan get credit for beating Western Michigan or Central Michigan or Northsoutheastern Michigan?
6. W - New Mexico(4-7) at home. Best win vs. Arizona. Probably the most impressive win for the MWC this year. New Mexico isn't a bad team but they are still 4-7.
7. L - at TCU(9-2). BYU gets blown out and TCU clearly has superior athletes. TCU's best win? Again, Stanford at 5-5 . Their best game is holding Oklahoma to 35 points while losing 35-10 in a game that was over by halftime. TCU might be overrated also.
8. W - UNLV(5-6) at home. BYU wins on a last second touchdown drive. This is BYU's best win to date. Let me repeat. THIS is BYU's best win to date. UNLV had a nice win against an underperforming Arizona State team.
9. W - at Colorado State(4-6.) Another last minute win. This was an important game 10 years ago. Colorado State's best win is UNLV.
10. W - San Diego State(1-9) at home. This was an important game 15 years ago. Have to stop living in the past. Only win is against Idaho. Good thing the MWC has the WAC to beat up on.
Combined record of opponents - 32-60 winning percentage of .347. No wins against a winning team. One blowout loss against a good team. I think Boise State and Ball State would have the same record if they played this schedule. In fact, I bet the top 40 teams would be 9-1 or better if they played this schedule. Does that mean that BYU is a bad team? No, just that they haven't proven anything this year. All of BYU's wins should count as one big win. Ok, perhaps 2 wins. They are like a 2 - 1 team. BYU has three real games left - Air Force today, Utah and then a bowl game. For them to stay ranked at the end of the year, they need to beat Utah. A win at Air Force and then a loss in Utah will only prove that BYU can beat up on mediocre teams but can't hang with the top programs. A 5-1 record after their bowl game would justify their current ranking and not perpetuate the idea that non-BCS teams are ranked too high.
BYU doesn't try to schedule four tough non-conference games because they don't need it to get national recognition. They usually schedule one or two tough non-conference games and two or three cream puffs. BYU is the one team in the non BCS that has the clout to get home at home series against good schools. Most smaller programs have to schedule 2 road games for every one home game against a name brand program. What incentive does a school like Ohio State have to play against Boise State? If they win, they were supposed to win being the BCS school. If they lose, then they suffer the embarrassment of losing to a non-BCS school. BYU doesn't even want to play tough games. If BYU didn't have to play TCU this year, say that they had played SMU and won, they would have a perfect record and probably be ranked in the top 5. If they had scheduled 4 tough non-conference games, they might have gone 2-2 and not be ranked at all. Same team, just different schedules. Which schedule would you choose if you were the athletic director? My gripe is that BYU is the one small conference team that can schedule good teams but they don't, and the teams that want to really can't.
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6 comments:
I like this article. It hurts but it's probably true.
no wins against a team with a winning record? wow, i didn't realize that. that hurts
I agree with this analysis. Well articulated. BYU should work on recruiting faster players at the skill positions before they expect to consistently compete with Top25 competition.
Great point on the incentives of their non-conference schedule. It doesn't make much sense for them to schedule tough opponents given BYU's favorable perception among poll voters.
I am going to fwd this post to all of the cougarfan-attics and see waht kind of response you get!
I've felt all along this year that they have been over-rated, but their offense certainly has been fun to watch. The only correction I suggest to your Mel Kiperesque analysis is that their No. Iowa game was a default game due to Fresno ST cancelling for some reason. Had they played Fresno ST then (on paper) their non-conf schedule doesn't look too bad with two Pac-10 teams and Fresno.
Enjoyed it and well done!
I would love BYU to schedule harder teams. I've heard that they have tried, but many BCS teams won't even come to Provo for whatever reason. Legit ranking or not, I don't mind looking at the win column and having it be in double digits. BYU will probably be ranked high again next year because they have a winning record from the previous year.
And since its rivalry week. I believe that 50% of U fans are not really U fans. Just BYU Haters. I respect real Ute Fans, but I want them to have a lot of turnovers Saturday
BYU has never had a problem with size, they get huge guys but they have a problem with speed. You saw it during the TCU game. BYU's secondary is usually its weakest link, other than the running game of course. Having Unga makes a big difference compared to the one dimensional teams of the past. Playing the smaller, slower teams in non-bcs teams and weak bcs teams keeps byu from looking bad.
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