Utah Jazz fans have known for the last 2 years that Paul Milsap was good but did they know that he was this good? The rest of the league has taken notice with his recent promotion to starter as his coming out party. He has started the last 12 games with Boozer being out and his numbers make you wonder who should start when Boozer gets healthy. 12 games - 18.7 pts, 11.7 rbs, 2.5 assists, 2 steals and 1 block per night. He's also has 12 straight double doubles (13 if you include tonight's Nets game.) Those are some impressive numbers for an undersized 6-7 PF that was taken in the 2d round.
You look at him now and you wonder how he slipped to the second round but undersized PF's aren't highly regarded by NBA scouts. At some point scouts are going to have to catch on that tough guys that are a little short are better than taller guys with no heart. Craig Smith, Leon Powe, and Jason Maxiell are guys that can play but weren't highly regarded due to their size. If you can play, there is a place for you in the league. Milsap and these guys have proven themselves but bad GM's will continue to take untested 7 footers over them. Part of the problem is that if someone takes Milsap in the first round, you get blasted for taking a guy that doesn't physically fit the mold of an NBA PF. You can gamble in the second round, so if Milsap ends up a bust then nobody remembers. A lot of teams out there that wish that they could have had Milsap. He went 47th in the 06 draft but if you did it all over again, only Aldridge, Roy, Gay, Brewer and Rondo would be taken ahead of him.
MIlsap overcomes his limitations with tremendous energy and a knack for being around the ball. He doesn't usually out jump his opponents but finds himself in the right spot at the right time. Especially on the offensive glass, he seems to know where the ball is going instead of having to fight for the ball. Not that he can't fight for the ball, which he also does very well. His activity on offense also translates to defense. Bigger players can shoot over him but he does force them to take jumpers instead of getting to the basket. One number that sticks out is the 2 steals a game. His hands are extremely active and he regularly deflects interior passes. When he plays with Brewer, AK and Knight, the Jazz have their best defensive unit capable of making stops.
Boozer himself was a second round pick so he knows a thing or two about making the most of your opportunities. They get their points in different ways, Boozer with a variety of pick and rolls, elbow jumpers and post moves while Milsap gets rewarded for his constant hustle with put backs and cuts to the basket. Milsap is developing a jump shot and is only getting better each year. As I have alluded to in previous posts, Boozer is really important for this offense to run smoothly. He gets his points against good defenders and has an uncanny connection with Williams. He commands double teams which Milsap has yet to see and is also a better interior passer. Boozer is an all star, an Olympic team member and when he comes back it will make big difference but you have to wonder if he is going to stay here next year.
The team next year is going to look quite different with all of the free agents on the team. With his previous history and Miami being a lot nicer than Salt Lake, I wouldn't feel safe until Boozer signs on the dotted line. Boozer is opting out and is probably looking for Elton Brand money - 5 years 80 million so having Milsap is good insurance. Would you rather commit 15+ million for five years to Boozer or sign Milsap for 5-6 years at 6-8 million a year and have money left over for someone else? Even with Boozer, this team is missing a player to be championship level so I don't know if it would be wise to throw big money to a guy who isn't taking you to the finals.
Williams is the franchise now and paying Boozer 15 million a year will only hurt this team in the long run. I would rather pay Milsap 50% of Boozers money and get 80% of his production. It would be great if they didn't lose Boozer for nothing but bad contracts ruin franchises and the Jazz already have AK's bad contract. The Jazz are usually pretty frugal so I can't imagine them breaking the bank for Boozer. In the end, it will be good for Milsap and good for the Jazz.
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Celtics Jazz game notes
I went to the Boston vs. Utah game the other night and although the game was moderately close the whole night, the Celtics were clearly on a different level than the Jazz. Rondo and Perkins played excellent games and it was obvious that Rondo was quicker than anyone else on the floor. I'm not sure if it was his ankle or not, but Williams looked like he was standing still when he was trying to guard Rondo. He could get into the lane anytime that he wanted and didn't have to take a jump shot all night. You have to play off of Rondo and make him a jump shooter to take him out of his game but that is easier said that done. Rondo has all the tools to be a Devin Harris type point guard with better defense if he learned to hit the jumper. He is still young but NBA players stop developing after a while and this is already his 4th year so I wonder if he will ever learn to shoot well.
Looking at the box score, it looks like the big 3 had decent nights but the game told a different story. Ray Allen's shot was definitely off and he was passing up open jumpers most of the night. Paul Pierce struggled but he takes enough shots that he scores double figures. I liked how the Jazz put AK on him in the 4th which frustrated him. The hidden story was Garnett. He was 8-13 for 19pts, 10 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals, 2 blocks - a very efficient line but he looked unstoppable. He did whatever he wanted and virtually scored whenever he wanted. He never forced a shot, always looked to pass out of double teams and if he shot more, he could have easily scored 30. His game was effortless yet intense and you can tell that he lets his teammates shine when its possible. He is averaging only 13 shots a game and only 16pts, 9.6 boards - all career lows since his rookie year but his impact on the team might be at its peak. I watch a lot of Celtic games since I live in Boston and he is a player where the numbers do not tell the whole story. He could easily get 25, 12 and 5 if he forced his game. The Celtics win because he doesn't.
Paul Milsap
Milsap had a career night the other night. Most of his points came on cuts to the basket, I bet that he was assisted on half his points but he hit some jumpers that I didn't know that he had in his arsenal. He hit a fade away 20 footer that had the fans in Boston thinking that Karl Malone came out of retirement. He has a great touch around the basket and he is efficient, only taking shots that come to him in the offense. Other than some silly fouls, he plays tough defense and gets steals and blocks that Boozer doesn't even try for. When Boozer comes back, I don't know who you take off the floor between Boozer, Okur and Milsap at the end of games. Okur is money at the end of the game but he makes a bettert matador the way he plays defense. Boozer never comes up with big plays on defense and Milsap plays hard but is undersized. You have to have 2 way players at the end of games to make stops in close games and Milsap is the only one of the three that can do that.
Looking at the box score, it looks like the big 3 had decent nights but the game told a different story. Ray Allen's shot was definitely off and he was passing up open jumpers most of the night. Paul Pierce struggled but he takes enough shots that he scores double figures. I liked how the Jazz put AK on him in the 4th which frustrated him. The hidden story was Garnett. He was 8-13 for 19pts, 10 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals, 2 blocks - a very efficient line but he looked unstoppable. He did whatever he wanted and virtually scored whenever he wanted. He never forced a shot, always looked to pass out of double teams and if he shot more, he could have easily scored 30. His game was effortless yet intense and you can tell that he lets his teammates shine when its possible. He is averaging only 13 shots a game and only 16pts, 9.6 boards - all career lows since his rookie year but his impact on the team might be at its peak. I watch a lot of Celtic games since I live in Boston and he is a player where the numbers do not tell the whole story. He could easily get 25, 12 and 5 if he forced his game. The Celtics win because he doesn't.
Paul Milsap
Milsap had a career night the other night. Most of his points came on cuts to the basket, I bet that he was assisted on half his points but he hit some jumpers that I didn't know that he had in his arsenal. He hit a fade away 20 footer that had the fans in Boston thinking that Karl Malone came out of retirement. He has a great touch around the basket and he is efficient, only taking shots that come to him in the offense. Other than some silly fouls, he plays tough defense and gets steals and blocks that Boozer doesn't even try for. When Boozer comes back, I don't know who you take off the floor between Boozer, Okur and Milsap at the end of games. Okur is money at the end of the game but he makes a bettert matador the way he plays defense. Boozer never comes up with big plays on defense and Milsap plays hard but is undersized. You have to have 2 way players at the end of games to make stops in close games and Milsap is the only one of the three that can do that.
Saturday, December 13, 2008
The MWC Bowling league
I have never understood why bowl games were such a big deal when there are 30+ bowl games. That means that over 60 of the FBS schools get "rewarded" with a bowl game. The other thing is that bowl game names change every few years when the sponsoring company's stock tanks. You don't know if a bowl game is important because it isn't the same bowl game anymore.
The bowl season is about to begin and the MWC has 5 of their 9 teams playing in the college post season. Just like the regular season, these bowl games have more meaning for the MWC than they have in the past. It's like the team that has a great regular season and then flames out in the playoffs. Those teams are remembered as either overrated or chokers - both labels that the MWC don't want hanging on them till next year. Having a winning record in bowl games will go a long way in establishing themselves as a premiere conference.
MWC bowl games
At New Orleans
Payout: $17 million
Utah (12-0) vs. Alabama (12-1), 8 p.m. (FOX)
This is another great game for the MWC. Alabama was the number one team till the last week of the season so this isn't the Pitt team that they trashed in 2005. This is the second best team in the SEC, a top 5 team and was one game away from the national championship. They have a ton of history and a big name coach in Nick Saban to boot. No one in the national media thinks that Utah is legitimate and Alabama will have all of the pressure on them to win. The knock on non-BCS teams is that they play weak schedules but if they beat Alabama which went undefeated in the SEC regular season, it would strongly propose that that Utah could have done the same in a major conference. That will also boost both BYU and TCU as their losses have come from Utah.
Look closely at Alabama's schedule and you will see that it wasn't as tough as you would suspect coming from an SEC team. They have played 3 ranked teams other than Florida. They are Georgia - a former number one that really flamed out, LSU - showed its true colors by the end of the season falling out of the polls and Clemson which finished 7-5. Their pretty boy quarterback John Parker Wilson manages games but doesn't win them. All of their games against good schools were close and he only threw 9 TDs all season. Alabama really doesn't have the firepower to blow people out and it wouldn't be surprising if Utah won this game close. Utah has managed to win its close games and this shouldn't be any different.
So I expect a 4-1 post season, with the Utah and Colorado State games being toss ups. No one remembers the regular season but bowl memories are quite long so hopefully it will turn out well for the non-BCS folks.
The bowl season is about to begin and the MWC has 5 of their 9 teams playing in the college post season. Just like the regular season, these bowl games have more meaning for the MWC than they have in the past. It's like the team that has a great regular season and then flames out in the playoffs. Those teams are remembered as either overrated or chokers - both labels that the MWC don't want hanging on them till next year. Having a winning record in bowl games will go a long way in establishing themselves as a premiere conference.
MWC bowl games
New Mexico Bowl
At Albuquerque
Payout: $750,000
Colorado State (6-6) vs. Fresno State (7-5), 2:30 p.m. (ESPN)
This is one lame bowl game. Does anyone care who wins this one? Fresno State was a major disappointment and you wonder what would have happened if they had beaten Wisconsin earlier in the year. Colorado State isn't exactly a world beater but it did have to finish well to get into this bowl game. It is nice to see them get out of the MWC basement as they used to be a football power. This is a toss up but maybe the fact that it is being played in MWC territory will help declare a victor.
Las Vegas Bowl
Payout: $1 million
BYU (10-2) vs. Arizona (7-5), 8 p.m. (ESPN)
Back to the Las Vegas Bowl again. BYU can't be very excited to be going back to sin city when they had designs on the BCS. In the end, this isn't a bad place for BYU to land. It is practically a home game for BYU with so many fans going down from Utah. They play a weak Arizona team that has already lost to New Mexico earlier this year which means more victory fodder for BYU. They will get credit for beating another PAC-10 squad and go 3-0 for the year against BCS conference teams. I expect them to squeeze out a close victory which is better than getting embarrassed by a good team. There is always next year.
Poinsettia Bowl
At San Diego
Payout: $750,000
Boise State (12-0) vs. TCU (10-2), 8 p.m. (ESPN)
This is the best bowl matchup outside of the title game and will mean a lot in establishing the Mountain West as the best non-BCS conference. TCU with its speedy defense vs. Boise State putting up crazy points makes it even more interesting. I'm surprised that Boise State took this bowl game. The payout is relatively meager and there are large risks with playing TCU. Boise State is undefeated and ranked in the top 10 but they can't shake the feeling that it is all due to playing in a weak conference. TCU has the defense to shut Boise State's offense down and if they look bad here then they will be exposed as the cream puff beaters that they are. If the win, well they were expected to win because they are undefeated. A loss would also prove that Boise State wouldn't have gone undefeated if they played in the MWC, let alone in a bigger conference. TCU might end up being ranked in the final top 10. I've been betting against Boise State all season and I will bet against them again with TCU stomping them like the stomped BYU.
Armed Forces Bowl
At Fort Worth, Texas
Payout: $750,000
Houston (7-5) vs. Air Force (8-4), Noon (ESPN)
This is a rematch of a close regular season game that Air Force won in Houston. Well the game isn't in Houston but it is in Texas and I imagine it will be favoring the Lone Star representative. Houston has a good offense and really has only one bad loss. They have good wins against Tulsa and East Carolina and other then their slip up to Marshall, their losses come from Air Force, Colorado State, Ok State and Rice. This one will probably be close but Air Force has been consistent in beating the teams that they are supposed to beat and I expect more of the same.
At New Orleans
Payout: $17 million
Utah (12-0) vs. Alabama (12-1), 8 p.m. (FOX)
This is another great game for the MWC. Alabama was the number one team till the last week of the season so this isn't the Pitt team that they trashed in 2005. This is the second best team in the SEC, a top 5 team and was one game away from the national championship. They have a ton of history and a big name coach in Nick Saban to boot. No one in the national media thinks that Utah is legitimate and Alabama will have all of the pressure on them to win. The knock on non-BCS teams is that they play weak schedules but if they beat Alabama which went undefeated in the SEC regular season, it would strongly propose that that Utah could have done the same in a major conference. That will also boost both BYU and TCU as their losses have come from Utah.
Look closely at Alabama's schedule and you will see that it wasn't as tough as you would suspect coming from an SEC team. They have played 3 ranked teams other than Florida. They are Georgia - a former number one that really flamed out, LSU - showed its true colors by the end of the season falling out of the polls and Clemson which finished 7-5. Their pretty boy quarterback John Parker Wilson manages games but doesn't win them. All of their games against good schools were close and he only threw 9 TDs all season. Alabama really doesn't have the firepower to blow people out and it wouldn't be surprising if Utah won this game close. Utah has managed to win its close games and this shouldn't be any different.
So I expect a 4-1 post season, with the Utah and Colorado State games being toss ups. No one remembers the regular season but bowl memories are quite long so hopefully it will turn out well for the non-BCS folks.
Friday, December 12, 2008
Good win against Portland for the Jazz
Last night's win against Portland was the best win for the Jazz all season. They haven't played many tough games so far and Portland has been playing well of late. The Jazz really dominated this game for 4 quarters and it was never even that close in the second half. Their two wins against Portland are their only quality wins this season. The last couple home games haven't inspired confidence and fans are not used to having 3 home losses so early in the season.
The most impressive thing was how they ramped up their defense when Portland would make mini runs. Multiple times when the lead was cut to 8 or 10 the Jazz would respond with stops. They were much more active than usual and in the second half used some strong double teams forcing bad passes. What was also different was some strong double teams in the post which is unusal for Sloan. They also didn't let Portland get in the lane and get to the free throw line. TV announcers always talk about the Jazz's no lay up policy - or better put - just hack anyone that gets by you defense. I can't stand watching Mehmet Okur not trying to block a shot but just hack to stop a guy from getting a lay up. If you just played good defense, other teams wouldn't hit 70% of their lay ups in traffic as they hit 70% of their free throws. The Jazz haven't been hacking as much but it might have to do with Harpring and Boozer being injured as they are the some of the worst foul mongers.
Another nice wrinkle was having AK play Roy during the fourth quarter. Roy went crazy in the 3d and it looked like he was ready to take over the game. AK guarded him the rest of the way and really shut him down. He didn't have many touches and his 7 points came on a 3 where Kirilenko rotated off, a lay up where Kirilenko lost him and a meaningless lay up in the final minute. For some reason, Sloan has lost confidence in AK and has been playing him less and less minutes and not having him finish games. If you want AK to be a useless player by the end of the season, keep playing him 22 minutes a game and have him sit at the end of games. His handling of Andre will go down as his biggest mistake and possibly the reason why this current group never wins a championship.
I'm not worried about Williams as it will take some time for him to be at full strength. He looked good passing the ball last night with some great dishes after penetration but he still looks ordinary with this finishes. He gets a ton of his lay ups blocked and he had another bad shooting night. When he goes into the lane, I hope that that he passes because it is embarrassing how many time his shot gets thrown back at this face. I'm sure this will get better as he gets more explosive.
Milsap and Okur really have been playing excellent of late. You have Boozer go down and the new stars show up. I love Milsap's energy and hustle and he has developed some nice moves around the basket. He definitely is more than just a bruiser down and shows a nice touch around the basket. Of course he doesn't have the offensive skill of Boozer but if Boozer played with half the heart that Milsap plays with on defense then the Jazz would be set. Milsap still gets overmatched by bigger guys. He had a hard time with Aldridge last night but he gets blocks and steals that Boozer doesn't even try for.
As impressed as I am with Milsap's play, this team is really different with Boozer playing. Let's say that Milsap starts all season and averages 15 and 10. That would be impressive but Milsap gets his points in completely different ways than Boozer does. Boozer creates his own shot and commands a double team in the post giving other players open shots. When the Jazz need a crucial score, they can go to Boozer for a mid range jumper or go pick and roll. Milsap doesn't have the same automatic scoring. Automatic scoring is a premium in this league. Guys like Boozer get 15-10 on off nights. Scoring in the NBA is largely dependant getting double teams and forcing bad match ups. Boozer creates mismatches every night where as Milsap doesn't. That doesn't mean that Milsap integral to the team's success, in fact he might be the team's MVP so far this season. We will see what happens when he comes up for contract because if Boozer leaves, it would definitely soften the blow if Milsap is here to take his spot. Right now, they have the best of both worlds and Milsap coming off the bench for 25+ minutes will mean success for the Jazz.
It makes me sick every time Harpring comes in the game and the announcer states the obligatory "oh he is the toughest guy in the NBA." "He is more of a football player, he comes from a football family." " He is so tough, just a great guy to have on your bench." As you might have guessed, I really dislike Matt Harpring. He had has day as the star of the team 5 or so years ago and he did a nice job but those days are long past and so are his knees. For some reason, Sloan never gets mad at him for jacking up a shot every time he touches the ball. He plays for 8 minutes and takes 4 shots. He can't defend anyone and had 3 fouls during his limited duty. He is an awful passer and I'm surprised that there haven't been more injuries on the Jazz from him hitting people during practice. He is definitely the crazy white guy on the court that is running around like a mad man breathing really hard, can't control his momentum and knocks you in the nose with an elbow. Sloan has to stop playing this guy. If you are going to give 8 minutes to someone, why not give them to CJ miles or Morris Almond? Why not give them to Kirilenko who is getting less than 20 minutes a game? I know it is only 8 minutes but this team is deep and you have young guys that are developing and need time out there. Announcer should recognize that he is just a skillless brute and a huge liability on defense.
The most impressive thing was how they ramped up their defense when Portland would make mini runs. Multiple times when the lead was cut to 8 or 10 the Jazz would respond with stops. They were much more active than usual and in the second half used some strong double teams forcing bad passes. What was also different was some strong double teams in the post which is unusal for Sloan. They also didn't let Portland get in the lane and get to the free throw line. TV announcers always talk about the Jazz's no lay up policy - or better put - just hack anyone that gets by you defense. I can't stand watching Mehmet Okur not trying to block a shot but just hack to stop a guy from getting a lay up. If you just played good defense, other teams wouldn't hit 70% of their lay ups in traffic as they hit 70% of their free throws. The Jazz haven't been hacking as much but it might have to do with Harpring and Boozer being injured as they are the some of the worst foul mongers.
Another nice wrinkle was having AK play Roy during the fourth quarter. Roy went crazy in the 3d and it looked like he was ready to take over the game. AK guarded him the rest of the way and really shut him down. He didn't have many touches and his 7 points came on a 3 where Kirilenko rotated off, a lay up where Kirilenko lost him and a meaningless lay up in the final minute. For some reason, Sloan has lost confidence in AK and has been playing him less and less minutes and not having him finish games. If you want AK to be a useless player by the end of the season, keep playing him 22 minutes a game and have him sit at the end of games. His handling of Andre will go down as his biggest mistake and possibly the reason why this current group never wins a championship.
I'm not worried about Williams as it will take some time for him to be at full strength. He looked good passing the ball last night with some great dishes after penetration but he still looks ordinary with this finishes. He gets a ton of his lay ups blocked and he had another bad shooting night. When he goes into the lane, I hope that that he passes because it is embarrassing how many time his shot gets thrown back at this face. I'm sure this will get better as he gets more explosive.
Milsap and Okur really have been playing excellent of late. You have Boozer go down and the new stars show up. I love Milsap's energy and hustle and he has developed some nice moves around the basket. He definitely is more than just a bruiser down and shows a nice touch around the basket. Of course he doesn't have the offensive skill of Boozer but if Boozer played with half the heart that Milsap plays with on defense then the Jazz would be set. Milsap still gets overmatched by bigger guys. He had a hard time with Aldridge last night but he gets blocks and steals that Boozer doesn't even try for.
As impressed as I am with Milsap's play, this team is really different with Boozer playing. Let's say that Milsap starts all season and averages 15 and 10. That would be impressive but Milsap gets his points in completely different ways than Boozer does. Boozer creates his own shot and commands a double team in the post giving other players open shots. When the Jazz need a crucial score, they can go to Boozer for a mid range jumper or go pick and roll. Milsap doesn't have the same automatic scoring. Automatic scoring is a premium in this league. Guys like Boozer get 15-10 on off nights. Scoring in the NBA is largely dependant getting double teams and forcing bad match ups. Boozer creates mismatches every night where as Milsap doesn't. That doesn't mean that Milsap integral to the team's success, in fact he might be the team's MVP so far this season. We will see what happens when he comes up for contract because if Boozer leaves, it would definitely soften the blow if Milsap is here to take his spot. Right now, they have the best of both worlds and Milsap coming off the bench for 25+ minutes will mean success for the Jazz.
It makes me sick every time Harpring comes in the game and the announcer states the obligatory "oh he is the toughest guy in the NBA." "He is more of a football player, he comes from a football family." " He is so tough, just a great guy to have on your bench." As you might have guessed, I really dislike Matt Harpring. He had has day as the star of the team 5 or so years ago and he did a nice job but those days are long past and so are his knees. For some reason, Sloan never gets mad at him for jacking up a shot every time he touches the ball. He plays for 8 minutes and takes 4 shots. He can't defend anyone and had 3 fouls during his limited duty. He is an awful passer and I'm surprised that there haven't been more injuries on the Jazz from him hitting people during practice. He is definitely the crazy white guy on the court that is running around like a mad man breathing really hard, can't control his momentum and knocks you in the nose with an elbow. Sloan has to stop playing this guy. If you are going to give 8 minutes to someone, why not give them to CJ miles or Morris Almond? Why not give them to Kirilenko who is getting less than 20 minutes a game? I know it is only 8 minutes but this team is deep and you have young guys that are developing and need time out there. Announcer should recognize that he is just a skillless brute and a huge liability on defense.
Friday, December 5, 2008
Quarter year report
It is only early December but 25% of the season is already over for the Jazz. After 20 games we have learned some things that we didn't know before the season started and some things are still up in the air.
What we have learned:
CJ Miles is an NBA rotation player.
While he hasn't put up amazing numbers, you couldn't have expected much more from a 21 yr old that hasn't played much. 20 games, 19 starts, 22 minutes a game, 10.7 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 2.1 apg and two 20+ point games. It is strange watching the Jazz with some many guys that can catch an alley oop. There are tons of players that show flashes of brilliance for one play or one quarter but what is more impressive is his confidence. He is staying in the Sloan offense and takes that shots that present themselves. Miles looks to pass to the right player and he is confident enough to pass up a shot. I wish he played with a little bit more energy, like Morris Almond, but Almond is a desperate man playing for a contract so there is a different level of urgency. I can see CJ taking all of Harpring's minutes as instant offense off the bench. He has the potential to be a solid starter if he learns to do something other than score. You have to love how effortless that lefty jump shot looks.
Kosta Koufos, back up center of the future.
The Jazz haven't had a big man that can block shots since Ostertag and nobody wants to go back to the days of Ostertag. He probably lost more assists for Stockton than actually scoring off his passes. I'm not projecting Koufos to be a starer in the league anytime soon but he has done some nice things in limited playing time. He plays with a lot of energy. He moves pretty well for a 7 footer and shows a decent jumper. He doesn't have rocks for hands. That's it, that all someone has to do prove he is better than Collins. I don't see why Sloan wouldn't play him 10 minutes a game to get him some experience and hopefully block a couple of shots. As I am writing this, I am stunned by how stubborn coach Sloan is. The fact that Collins is still on this team and up till last year was getting 10+ mintues a game is amazing. It is 4 on 5 when he is on the floor. I would much prefer Koufos or Fesenko taking all of his minutes.
Sloan's system is more important than players
The Jazz have had a ton of injuries and different players getting minutes every night but the Jazz continue to get their wins and even without Williams or Boozer, this would be a .500 team. It shows the strength of an offensive system that enhances the abilities of the players. Really talented teams can win running and gunning but as the Olympics this past summer showed, a good team offensive can compete with an ultra-talented team. Half of Brewer's points are lay ups off of back cuts and dives to the basket that are system driven. Harpring did a lot of the same things but took more jumpers than slashing to the basket. Miles will eventually learn the same things. Shandon Anderson and Bryon Russell used to do the same things 10 years ago. Jerry Sloan has his faults but having an offensive system that works is what keeps him employed as an NBA head coach. Sloan would do wonders with a young talented team that needs discipline.
Still waiting for answers
Morris Almond's future
He didn't get his contract extended but has been getting some playing time these last couple of games and even played most of the fourth quarter the other night. Almond has been playing well with the limited minutes that he gets and it sounds like he works hard in practice. He plays with good energy and is a natural offensive player. The problem is that Brewer and Miles are in front of him. Brewer is a better athlete and defender. Miles has more potential as an all around player. I see Almond becoming an Eddie House type gunner in a few years. I hope they deal him and get a 1st round pick in return.
AK fully loaded or shooting blanks?
AK has played pretty well as the sixth man and his numbers have inched back towards his production from a couple of years ago. Overall, everyone is very happy with what he has provided off the bench and how he has handled the perceived demotion. There are a couple of things that make me wonder if the joy will last throughout the season. AK needs touches to be involved in the offense and for that, he needs minutes. His minutes are already tailing off a little as they did as the season progressed last year. When the team is at full strength, his minutes might get cut even more. I think it has to do with Sloan being harder on him than other players on the team. It puzzles me how much Sloan complains about his play when AK does more of the little things that don't show up in the box score than anyone else. He leads the team in deflections and hustle plays. In the end, it will depend on Sloan's ability to adapt and let AK play his game. If he can't do it and limits his minutes, AK will be unhappy and his production will tail off. At some point AK needs to be in Golden State playing for Don Nelson and with his taller twin brother Andres Biedrins. Also, Deron Williams doesn't like passing to AK. Just watch, he hates to pass him the ball.
Team Defense
So I mentioned in the season preview that the biggest issue with the Jazz is their lack of good team defense and that still holds true. The Jazz have get a lot of steals but there is a huge difference between stealing the ball and playing good defense. If you watch the team down the stretch of a close game, the Jazz might force the occasional turnover but they don't get regular stops. You don't see the defense tighten up and force tough shots. Steals means jumping in passing lanes. Stops means good team defense. This I think, falls on the coach. Good team defense is system oriented and Sloan's unwillingness to experiment with more zone defenses, double teams and different switching schemes is what keeps the Jazz from being better.
Just a playoff team or contender
The Jazz are definitely a playoff team but there are few title contenders. The definite contenders so far are Boston, LA and the Cleveland. The possible contenders are Houston, New Orleans, San Antonio and Utah. That's it. Portland is still too young and Denver will be a nice regular season team but without enough talent to win it all. The Jazz defense and road record will tell you if they are better than last year.
What we have learned:
CJ Miles is an NBA rotation player.
While he hasn't put up amazing numbers, you couldn't have expected much more from a 21 yr old that hasn't played much. 20 games, 19 starts, 22 minutes a game, 10.7 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 2.1 apg and two 20+ point games. It is strange watching the Jazz with some many guys that can catch an alley oop. There are tons of players that show flashes of brilliance for one play or one quarter but what is more impressive is his confidence. He is staying in the Sloan offense and takes that shots that present themselves. Miles looks to pass to the right player and he is confident enough to pass up a shot. I wish he played with a little bit more energy, like Morris Almond, but Almond is a desperate man playing for a contract so there is a different level of urgency. I can see CJ taking all of Harpring's minutes as instant offense off the bench. He has the potential to be a solid starter if he learns to do something other than score. You have to love how effortless that lefty jump shot looks.
Kosta Koufos, back up center of the future.
The Jazz haven't had a big man that can block shots since Ostertag and nobody wants to go back to the days of Ostertag. He probably lost more assists for Stockton than actually scoring off his passes. I'm not projecting Koufos to be a starer in the league anytime soon but he has done some nice things in limited playing time. He plays with a lot of energy. He moves pretty well for a 7 footer and shows a decent jumper. He doesn't have rocks for hands. That's it, that all someone has to do prove he is better than Collins. I don't see why Sloan wouldn't play him 10 minutes a game to get him some experience and hopefully block a couple of shots. As I am writing this, I am stunned by how stubborn coach Sloan is. The fact that Collins is still on this team and up till last year was getting 10+ mintues a game is amazing. It is 4 on 5 when he is on the floor. I would much prefer Koufos or Fesenko taking all of his minutes.
Sloan's system is more important than players
The Jazz have had a ton of injuries and different players getting minutes every night but the Jazz continue to get their wins and even without Williams or Boozer, this would be a .500 team. It shows the strength of an offensive system that enhances the abilities of the players. Really talented teams can win running and gunning but as the Olympics this past summer showed, a good team offensive can compete with an ultra-talented team. Half of Brewer's points are lay ups off of back cuts and dives to the basket that are system driven. Harpring did a lot of the same things but took more jumpers than slashing to the basket. Miles will eventually learn the same things. Shandon Anderson and Bryon Russell used to do the same things 10 years ago. Jerry Sloan has his faults but having an offensive system that works is what keeps him employed as an NBA head coach. Sloan would do wonders with a young talented team that needs discipline.
Still waiting for answers
Morris Almond's future
He didn't get his contract extended but has been getting some playing time these last couple of games and even played most of the fourth quarter the other night. Almond has been playing well with the limited minutes that he gets and it sounds like he works hard in practice. He plays with good energy and is a natural offensive player. The problem is that Brewer and Miles are in front of him. Brewer is a better athlete and defender. Miles has more potential as an all around player. I see Almond becoming an Eddie House type gunner in a few years. I hope they deal him and get a 1st round pick in return.
AK fully loaded or shooting blanks?
AK has played pretty well as the sixth man and his numbers have inched back towards his production from a couple of years ago. Overall, everyone is very happy with what he has provided off the bench and how he has handled the perceived demotion. There are a couple of things that make me wonder if the joy will last throughout the season. AK needs touches to be involved in the offense and for that, he needs minutes. His minutes are already tailing off a little as they did as the season progressed last year. When the team is at full strength, his minutes might get cut even more. I think it has to do with Sloan being harder on him than other players on the team. It puzzles me how much Sloan complains about his play when AK does more of the little things that don't show up in the box score than anyone else. He leads the team in deflections and hustle plays. In the end, it will depend on Sloan's ability to adapt and let AK play his game. If he can't do it and limits his minutes, AK will be unhappy and his production will tail off. At some point AK needs to be in Golden State playing for Don Nelson and with his taller twin brother Andres Biedrins. Also, Deron Williams doesn't like passing to AK. Just watch, he hates to pass him the ball.
Team Defense
So I mentioned in the season preview that the biggest issue with the Jazz is their lack of good team defense and that still holds true. The Jazz have get a lot of steals but there is a huge difference between stealing the ball and playing good defense. If you watch the team down the stretch of a close game, the Jazz might force the occasional turnover but they don't get regular stops. You don't see the defense tighten up and force tough shots. Steals means jumping in passing lanes. Stops means good team defense. This I think, falls on the coach. Good team defense is system oriented and Sloan's unwillingness to experiment with more zone defenses, double teams and different switching schemes is what keeps the Jazz from being better.
Just a playoff team or contender
The Jazz are definitely a playoff team but there are few title contenders. The definite contenders so far are Boston, LA and the Cleveland. The possible contenders are Houston, New Orleans, San Antonio and Utah. That's it. Portland is still too young and Denver will be a nice regular season team but without enough talent to win it all. The Jazz defense and road record will tell you if they are better than last year.
Sunday, November 30, 2008
College Football: Good wins, bad wins, good losses, bad losses.
The college football regular season ended yesterday with some big upsets and some real confusion on the top of the BCS picture. Although I would like to write about the relative merits of each of top 5 team and why they belong or don't belong in the title game, ESPN and CNNSI will do that for me x 10 for the rest of the week. There are still the SEC and Big 12 title games to be played but we will have to wait for them to add to the confusion. The biggest problem in polling is that there is no standard for what wins and losses are worth. What is the difference in the value of a win against a Top 10 team vs a bottom 40 team? Between a win against a weak opponent vs a loss to the number one team? Between a loss to a really bad team vs a loss to a good team? Why does a loss at the beginning of the season mean less than a loss at the end of the season? Computer numbers try to do this but then you see crazy things like a 5-7 Virginia team being ranked ahead of a 10-2 Tulsa team last week. At some point wins are wins and losses are losses and no human would rank a 5-7 team over a 10-2 team.
I stated in a previous post that the BYU has no incentive to play tough games and I think that holds true for all schools. The difference between a good win vs a easy win is not great enough to risk a possible loss. The penalty for losing a tough game is enormous, virtual elimination from BCS consideration and millions of dollars lost in payouts, exposure and recruiting. Why risk it? Alabama is the only undefeated among the top 5 and it is most likely due to playing the weakest schedule. Its best wins are against Georgia and LSU, which don't look so good now. Compare that with Texas that had to play Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech on consecutive weeks, there is no question as to who played the tougher schedule. Even if Alabama beats Florida it would have played only 2 teams in the top 25 at the time of bowl season. If you were the head coach, which schedule would you pick if boosters are demanding a championship?
There are going to be a lot of Boise State fans out there that want a BCS bid but nothing on their schedule justifies it. Utah and Boise State is another good example of why teams should schedule bad teams. The difference between them in the polls is just 3 spots but Utah played a much tougher schedule. Boise State's best win was vs. Oregon at Oregon and then the rest of the schedule were pretty much automatic Ws. So what did Utah get for beating BYU and TCU this year? three measly spots (and a BCS bid.) If Utah had the choice to switch those teams and play Nevada and Hawaii instead, you get a much easier schedule and still a higher ranking than Boise State.
Despite the confusion, I am still against non-BCS power teams playing each other during the regular season. While Utah and Boise State playing a non-conference game would clarify the who is best argument, it just eliminates non-BCS teams from rankings and media attention. How else will anyone know about Boise State unless it is undefeated? Do you think anyone at ESPN would care about a one loss Bronco team? The non-BCS are the uncool kids that the cool kids don't want anything to do with. The only way to make them pay attention is to be good enough to beat them and not beat up on each other. BYU and Boise State will start playing in a couple of years and I think it will just eliminate the loser from the national spotlight. Sure it makes for entertaining football but that isn't looking at the big picture. Anyway, how much credit is BYU going to get for beating a team that no one thinks is really that good. They will say that BYU got a win vs an overrated team and that Boise State was exposed as the weak team that they are. The rosier alternative would be not playing each other and playing terrible teams, winning and having more teams that go undefeated for the season.
MWC fans would like to add Boise state to the mix to add credibility to the conference but I don't see the benefits. This year all four non-BCS powers are in the top 25 but what would have happened if Boise State was in the MWC? It would have been very difficult for all of them to still be there as it would tack another tough game on each other their schedules, and 3 on to Boise State's. The Bronco's might be 9-3 this year and not ranked at all. Other issues are that that Boise State has not had historically had strong basketball program and its non-revenue sports also aren't as competitive as the MWC's. Finally, Academically the MWC aren't all Harvard's but are at a different level than Boise State. If I were to have a say, I would have TCU move to the Sun Belt and Utah move to the MAC so that everyone can go dominate their own little conferences and be players in BCS race. Lets petition to have BYU change their contract with Boise State to Bowling Green.
This is why people want a playoff but these same questions will have to be answered to determine who will get in to the playoff. College Basketball doesn't have national champion controversy but there is a lot of controversy about who gets invited to the tournament. In basketball it isn't that big of a deal because the confusion is over the final spots between 64 teams. The last team invited rarely makes any real noise during March Madness. The largest a college football tourney could be is only 16 teams. It wouldn't be crazy to see the number one team lose to the 16th ranked team so getting the right teams would be very important. Even acknowledging the problems, it might be better to have controversy surrounding who gets in to be the champion, and not who the champion is.
I stated in a previous post that the BYU has no incentive to play tough games and I think that holds true for all schools. The difference between a good win vs a easy win is not great enough to risk a possible loss. The penalty for losing a tough game is enormous, virtual elimination from BCS consideration and millions of dollars lost in payouts, exposure and recruiting. Why risk it? Alabama is the only undefeated among the top 5 and it is most likely due to playing the weakest schedule. Its best wins are against Georgia and LSU, which don't look so good now. Compare that with Texas that had to play Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech on consecutive weeks, there is no question as to who played the tougher schedule. Even if Alabama beats Florida it would have played only 2 teams in the top 25 at the time of bowl season. If you were the head coach, which schedule would you pick if boosters are demanding a championship?
There are going to be a lot of Boise State fans out there that want a BCS bid but nothing on their schedule justifies it. Utah and Boise State is another good example of why teams should schedule bad teams. The difference between them in the polls is just 3 spots but Utah played a much tougher schedule. Boise State's best win was vs. Oregon at Oregon and then the rest of the schedule were pretty much automatic Ws. So what did Utah get for beating BYU and TCU this year? three measly spots (and a BCS bid.) If Utah had the choice to switch those teams and play Nevada and Hawaii instead, you get a much easier schedule and still a higher ranking than Boise State.
Despite the confusion, I am still against non-BCS power teams playing each other during the regular season. While Utah and Boise State playing a non-conference game would clarify the who is best argument, it just eliminates non-BCS teams from rankings and media attention. How else will anyone know about Boise State unless it is undefeated? Do you think anyone at ESPN would care about a one loss Bronco team? The non-BCS are the uncool kids that the cool kids don't want anything to do with. The only way to make them pay attention is to be good enough to beat them and not beat up on each other. BYU and Boise State will start playing in a couple of years and I think it will just eliminate the loser from the national spotlight. Sure it makes for entertaining football but that isn't looking at the big picture. Anyway, how much credit is BYU going to get for beating a team that no one thinks is really that good. They will say that BYU got a win vs an overrated team and that Boise State was exposed as the weak team that they are. The rosier alternative would be not playing each other and playing terrible teams, winning and having more teams that go undefeated for the season.
MWC fans would like to add Boise state to the mix to add credibility to the conference but I don't see the benefits. This year all four non-BCS powers are in the top 25 but what would have happened if Boise State was in the MWC? It would have been very difficult for all of them to still be there as it would tack another tough game on each other their schedules, and 3 on to Boise State's. The Bronco's might be 9-3 this year and not ranked at all. Other issues are that that Boise State has not had historically had strong basketball program and its non-revenue sports also aren't as competitive as the MWC's. Finally, Academically the MWC aren't all Harvard's but are at a different level than Boise State. If I were to have a say, I would have TCU move to the Sun Belt and Utah move to the MAC so that everyone can go dominate their own little conferences and be players in BCS race. Lets petition to have BYU change their contract with Boise State to Bowling Green.
This is why people want a playoff but these same questions will have to be answered to determine who will get in to the playoff. College Basketball doesn't have national champion controversy but there is a lot of controversy about who gets invited to the tournament. In basketball it isn't that big of a deal because the confusion is over the final spots between 64 teams. The last team invited rarely makes any real noise during March Madness. The largest a college football tourney could be is only 16 teams. It wouldn't be crazy to see the number one team lose to the 16th ranked team so getting the right teams would be very important. Even acknowledging the problems, it might be better to have controversy surrounding who gets in to be the champion, and not who the champion is.
Friday, November 28, 2008
Disgruntled Players
Perhaps it is because I've always been somewhat of a head case, I'm loathe to criticize disgruntled players like the average fan. Players are seen as overpaid egomaniacs that cry as soon as they don't get their way but I try not to see them that way. I see them as people that are trying to find happiness just like everyone else. Sure, making 20 million dollars a year can warp anybody's perspective but I don't think an exorbitant salary gives fans and media a free pass at unbridled critisim. We as fans say that if we were making that kind of money, we would go out there and give it our all every night and never complain. What I say is that fans should get off the internet at work and do their job well before we talk about others. What it really comes down to is that NBA players are human and some humans work hard every night and some need extra motivation to give it their all.
Stephon Marbury is probably one of the top five guards in terms of overall talent and athletic ability. He has speed, size, and leaping ability that few point guards have. He even looks chiseled even though he doesn't seem the type to spend endless hours in the gym. A 20 million dollar contract and a new coach later, his career is now more known for the trouble he is causing off the court than on the court. If you haven't been following, it appears that coach Dantoni asked him to play the other night and Marbury refused or channeling his inner Bartleby, that he would prefer not to. Reactions have ranged from Dantoni's utter disbelief to teammate Quentin Richardson saying he doesn't support Marbury to fans thinking this is more of his selfish antics. The one thing I don't read is support. Granted, he is not the most likable guy but I think he is doing the only thing he knows to maintain his dignity.
The Knicks at the start of the season were clearly going a different direction and Marbury was not going with them. Marbury played sparingly in the preseason and has not had a regular season minute - despite having career numbers of nearly 20 points and 8 assists. The Knicks brought in Chris Duhon who has played decently but isn't a NBA level starting point guard. They gave Nate Robinson all of the back up minutes and the message was very clear - Marbury wasn't wanted on the team and they were looking to get rid of him.
So if you were Stephon Marbury, how would you feel about being told that lesser players were going to get your minutes. That your hometown Knicks feel that you are so destructive of a presence they don't even want you to practice with the team or play during garbage time. This is often talked about in terms of a messy divorce and that is exactly what it is, a very messy divorce. Their love has turned into hate and there is so much hate that one partner is acting illogically and spitefully to advance it own way forward. I'm talking about the Knicks of course. The divorce was a long time in the making with Marbury the current fall guy for Isiah Thomas' reckless antics. Marbury's only choice was to accept their plans and sit on the bench and use his leverage, a 20 million dollar contract that the Knicks are obligated to pay but didn't want to pay. What would you do in a divorce, just let the other side humiliate you and then take your money too?
Where was Quentin Richardson at the start of the season when Marbury wasn't playing? I didn't hear him sticking up for Marbury saying that he should get playing time because it would be best for the team. Why is best for the team now and wasn't best for the team then? The Knicks didn't trade a point guard. Jamal Crawford isn't a saint either. He is someone you hate playing with. He is the guy on the playground that thinks he is the best player on the court and shoots every time he touches the ball. He is sitting in the corner yelling for the ball and you pass him the ball to shut him up. Then he does some crazy dribble move and takes a fall away jumper with 2 guys on him and makes it. Now he thinks he can take any shot he wants except he misses the next six shots.
So you are still living in the same house as your ex wife and she makes some deals that put her in a situation where she needs your help. She comes to you and begs you for help and even says that maybe that you can work things out for the next year or so. At this point, Marbury has been beyond insulted by the Knicks. This isn't some fight between two friends, this is now war between two enemies and reconciliation is not possible. Why would Marbury put himself out there and help his former partner when she went and told the rest of the world that he was useless. That players half as talented were better than him. That he is the cause of the team's problems. That he is being selfish. That they were better off without him, all in front of his friends and family. Crawling back and playing for the Knicks would look desperate and there is no way that if I was in that situation would now go back and get abused. Divorces happend for a reason and the reasons in this one are clearer than most. Marbury should stick to his guns and force the Knicks into doing something that helps Marbury and not just themselves.
Why didn't Dantoni and Walsh think of needing Marbury before they traded Crawford? I doubt that they just thought of moving Crawford. They were looking for a buyer since the beginning of the season and had been showcasing him to increase his value. They did a good job with that. Very smart to also showcase Randolph when no one wanted him before the season started. Marbury isn't exactly a character guy but the Knicks have been unfaithful to their fans and players for many years now and Marbury should hold out for every dollar that he is owed and make the Knicks pay for every mistake they have made.
Stephon Marbury is probably one of the top five guards in terms of overall talent and athletic ability. He has speed, size, and leaping ability that few point guards have. He even looks chiseled even though he doesn't seem the type to spend endless hours in the gym. A 20 million dollar contract and a new coach later, his career is now more known for the trouble he is causing off the court than on the court. If you haven't been following, it appears that coach Dantoni asked him to play the other night and Marbury refused or channeling his inner Bartleby, that he would prefer not to. Reactions have ranged from Dantoni's utter disbelief to teammate Quentin Richardson saying he doesn't support Marbury to fans thinking this is more of his selfish antics. The one thing I don't read is support. Granted, he is not the most likable guy but I think he is doing the only thing he knows to maintain his dignity.
The Knicks at the start of the season were clearly going a different direction and Marbury was not going with them. Marbury played sparingly in the preseason and has not had a regular season minute - despite having career numbers of nearly 20 points and 8 assists. The Knicks brought in Chris Duhon who has played decently but isn't a NBA level starting point guard. They gave Nate Robinson all of the back up minutes and the message was very clear - Marbury wasn't wanted on the team and they were looking to get rid of him.
So if you were Stephon Marbury, how would you feel about being told that lesser players were going to get your minutes. That your hometown Knicks feel that you are so destructive of a presence they don't even want you to practice with the team or play during garbage time. This is often talked about in terms of a messy divorce and that is exactly what it is, a very messy divorce. Their love has turned into hate and there is so much hate that one partner is acting illogically and spitefully to advance it own way forward. I'm talking about the Knicks of course. The divorce was a long time in the making with Marbury the current fall guy for Isiah Thomas' reckless antics. Marbury's only choice was to accept their plans and sit on the bench and use his leverage, a 20 million dollar contract that the Knicks are obligated to pay but didn't want to pay. What would you do in a divorce, just let the other side humiliate you and then take your money too?
Where was Quentin Richardson at the start of the season when Marbury wasn't playing? I didn't hear him sticking up for Marbury saying that he should get playing time because it would be best for the team. Why is best for the team now and wasn't best for the team then? The Knicks didn't trade a point guard. Jamal Crawford isn't a saint either. He is someone you hate playing with. He is the guy on the playground that thinks he is the best player on the court and shoots every time he touches the ball. He is sitting in the corner yelling for the ball and you pass him the ball to shut him up. Then he does some crazy dribble move and takes a fall away jumper with 2 guys on him and makes it. Now he thinks he can take any shot he wants except he misses the next six shots.
So you are still living in the same house as your ex wife and she makes some deals that put her in a situation where she needs your help. She comes to you and begs you for help and even says that maybe that you can work things out for the next year or so. At this point, Marbury has been beyond insulted by the Knicks. This isn't some fight between two friends, this is now war between two enemies and reconciliation is not possible. Why would Marbury put himself out there and help his former partner when she went and told the rest of the world that he was useless. That players half as talented were better than him. That he is the cause of the team's problems. That he is being selfish. That they were better off without him, all in front of his friends and family. Crawling back and playing for the Knicks would look desperate and there is no way that if I was in that situation would now go back and get abused. Divorces happend for a reason and the reasons in this one are clearer than most. Marbury should stick to his guns and force the Knicks into doing something that helps Marbury and not just themselves.
Why didn't Dantoni and Walsh think of needing Marbury before they traded Crawford? I doubt that they just thought of moving Crawford. They were looking for a buyer since the beginning of the season and had been showcasing him to increase his value. They did a good job with that. Very smart to also showcase Randolph when no one wanted him before the season started. Marbury isn't exactly a character guy but the Knicks have been unfaithful to their fans and players for many years now and Marbury should hold out for every dollar that he is owed and make the Knicks pay for every mistake they have made.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
The Derrick Rose Bulls
The Jazz lost a tough game last night to the Bulls on a last second shot by Larry Hughes but it felt like the Bulls were quicker all night. The score was only 101-100 despite the whole game being fast break after fast break. At first the Jazz tried to match them at the running game and they did a pretty decent job but the Bulls were just slightly more athletic. Watching the entertaining first half, I was reminded of how different this Jazz team is from the ones of the past. Brewer is a great finisher and that alley-oop that he caught was the first one like that from a Jazz player since David Benoit. Miles and Price can both dunk the ball and Milsap runs the break really well too. This team is not lacking for speed and leaping ability but it isn't the style of play that they can maintain all game. They still play best using their break as a secondary weapon and relying on their half court offense to build their leads. Other teams, like the Bulls can run with the Jazz and can out sprint them in a track meet. No team, except for the Spurs, can out execute them in the half court.
Derrick Rose was really impressive last night. He is as tall as Deron Williams but looks a bit quicker and with better hops. There were some plays last night where defenders underestimated his speed and he just blew right by them. What was very nice to see was his mid range jumper which most youngsters don't like to take. We'll see if he will turn out to be a point guard but he could be a great combo guard. He looks like a very strong rookie of the year candidate.
The Bulls are a good example of a talented team that is not well assembled. Almost every position has someone that could be near all star caliber but they don't play well as a team. The Bulls signed Deng to a huge long term deal and he comes off the bench yesterday to score 2 points. Tyrus Thomas is immensely athletic and he comes off the bench to score 2 points. Andreas Nocioni would be a fantastic sixth man on another team. Ben Gordon can score but he is an undersized 2 guard that doesn't deserve a huge contract. I think Gordon should have taken the offer from last summer because I don't think he is going to see that kind of money again. There are a lot of scorers in this league and most are more versatile than he is. Is he much better than Catino Mobley? He could be a nice compliment to Rose if Rose learns to play more of natural point but I doubt he will be in Chicago long enough to find out. If someone gives him 10 million a year, they are going to be regretting it for the life of the contract. I bet the Bulls wish they didn't give Deng so much money right now either.
Derrick Rose was really impressive last night. He is as tall as Deron Williams but looks a bit quicker and with better hops. There were some plays last night where defenders underestimated his speed and he just blew right by them. What was very nice to see was his mid range jumper which most youngsters don't like to take. We'll see if he will turn out to be a point guard but he could be a great combo guard. He looks like a very strong rookie of the year candidate.
The Bulls are a good example of a talented team that is not well assembled. Almost every position has someone that could be near all star caliber but they don't play well as a team. The Bulls signed Deng to a huge long term deal and he comes off the bench yesterday to score 2 points. Tyrus Thomas is immensely athletic and he comes off the bench to score 2 points. Andreas Nocioni would be a fantastic sixth man on another team. Ben Gordon can score but he is an undersized 2 guard that doesn't deserve a huge contract. I think Gordon should have taken the offer from last summer because I don't think he is going to see that kind of money again. There are a lot of scorers in this league and most are more versatile than he is. Is he much better than Catino Mobley? He could be a nice compliment to Rose if Rose learns to play more of natural point but I doubt he will be in Chicago long enough to find out. If someone gives him 10 million a year, they are going to be regretting it for the life of the contract. I bet the Bulls wish they didn't give Deng so much money right now either.
The Jazz lost but I am still optimistic about their play. CJ Miles is making regular contributions and is doing it in an efficient manner. Okur has had 2 good shooting games in a row and is looking like he is in end of last season form. Overall I think the team is in good shape. A starting five of D. Williams, Boozer, Okur, Brewer and an improved CJ Miles and Kirilenko, Milsap, Price and Korver off the bench is very formidable. The Jazz have a lot of players who need minutes and I wonder if it would benefit them to trade Boozer by the deadline so that they don't lose him for free when he opts out of the contract. Korver and Okur will want to stay in Utah but I even if Boozer publicilly said that he was staying in Utah I wouldn't believe him. Packaging him with Almond might net the Jazz a defensive presence that they sorely need. With all of the steps that the Jazz are taking with their young guys, it is still all on the offensive end. The Jazz need their 2d best player to make a commitment to the defensive end or I can' t see this team being much better than contenders and not title holders.
Monday, November 24, 2008
NBA notes Thanksgiving week
Happy Thanksgiving week! The NBA season is already almost a month old and this past weekend the Knicks made a splash by moving two huge contracts. Kudos to the Knicks for trading two guys that had almost no value at the beginning of the season.
If you watch Jamal Crawford play, you are amazed at some of the shots he makes and more amazed by how wild the rest of the misses are. He is an undisciplined scorer with no conscious that would be best coming off the bench for a good team for 25 minutes. He shoots a low percentage and doesn't pass the ball well either. Between Marbury and Crawford, it looks like Crawford was the better teammate but that isn't really a ringing endorsement. He will fit into Don Nelson's style of play well, just like he fit into Dantoni's style well because of the lack of emphasis on defense, or shot selection, or anything other jacking up crazy shots.
No one has ever doubted Al Harrington's talent. He can score, handle, rebound and shoot so he shouldn't have a problem on the Knicks. His biggest problem is that he thinks he is the best player on the team and he should be the focus of the offense. That is probably the biggest problem among talented NBA players, the lack of acceptance of their place in the pecking order. On a bad team, Harrington could average 20 points a game but his team would lose 50 games. On a good team Harrington is the third option, rebounds and defends the other teams best player. He's been in the league long enough to know where his place is and if he doesn't, then you don't want him on your team of he destroys the team's chemistry.
The Zach Randolph deal was just unloading a large contract for two guys that have no future with the Knicks. Tim Thomas is one of my least favorite players. He plays when he wants to but he usually doesn't, unless it is contract year and then he plays well. Classic guy who is running to the bank to cash his paycheck and never looks back. Catino Mobley is an undersized shooting guard that definitely can score but is overmatched by taller guards. Again, he is a good back up playing too many minutes as a starter. I'm not sure how Randolph fits with Kaman as they both really dominate the ball but the Clipper's season was over before it began. As long as they don't give away players to the Lakers, who cares what they do.
The Knicks are basically throwing away this year and next year so that they can have the CHANCE to get Lebron James. Two whole seasons thrown in the trash just for the opportunity to give a guy a max contract. Lebron James is Lebron James but does that make any sense? I guess you could say that this season was going to be a lottery year and that next year was hopeless as well but how can you do that to your fans? How can you expect fans to care about your team for the next two years if the management had said that they aren't going to care. If you have season tickets this year can you get a full refund? I would be really upset having to watch a starting lineup of Chris Duhon, Wilson Chandler, Quentin Richardson, David lee and Catino Mobley. Is that exciting? One of the most expensive tickets in the league and this the team they are going to put out for the next two years. Even worse is that they gave their number one pick to Utah a while ago that is protected this next year, but is unprotected the following year. That means that if they stay bad for two years like they plan to, the Jazz are going to own their 2010 lottery pick. Hope it ends up being number one.
There are a lot of free agents going to be available in 2010 but there a couple of issues that I have an issue with this forward thinking. When was the last time that a free agent turned the fortunes of a team around? Trades can turn change things for a team but I can't remember the last time that a major free agent signing changed the future of a franchise. Most free agent signings are too long and too high priced and end up backfiring on the team. I'll have to look up recent free agent signings and how many of them justify their contract. Actually, the Jazz signed Carlos Boozer and Okur the same summer, then got Williams and two years later really reaped the benefits. Those were reasonable signings for guys that were competitively priced. That rarely happens in the free agent market.
If you watch Jamal Crawford play, you are amazed at some of the shots he makes and more amazed by how wild the rest of the misses are. He is an undisciplined scorer with no conscious that would be best coming off the bench for a good team for 25 minutes. He shoots a low percentage and doesn't pass the ball well either. Between Marbury and Crawford, it looks like Crawford was the better teammate but that isn't really a ringing endorsement. He will fit into Don Nelson's style of play well, just like he fit into Dantoni's style well because of the lack of emphasis on defense, or shot selection, or anything other jacking up crazy shots.
No one has ever doubted Al Harrington's talent. He can score, handle, rebound and shoot so he shouldn't have a problem on the Knicks. His biggest problem is that he thinks he is the best player on the team and he should be the focus of the offense. That is probably the biggest problem among talented NBA players, the lack of acceptance of their place in the pecking order. On a bad team, Harrington could average 20 points a game but his team would lose 50 games. On a good team Harrington is the third option, rebounds and defends the other teams best player. He's been in the league long enough to know where his place is and if he doesn't, then you don't want him on your team of he destroys the team's chemistry.
The Zach Randolph deal was just unloading a large contract for two guys that have no future with the Knicks. Tim Thomas is one of my least favorite players. He plays when he wants to but he usually doesn't, unless it is contract year and then he plays well. Classic guy who is running to the bank to cash his paycheck and never looks back. Catino Mobley is an undersized shooting guard that definitely can score but is overmatched by taller guards. Again, he is a good back up playing too many minutes as a starter. I'm not sure how Randolph fits with Kaman as they both really dominate the ball but the Clipper's season was over before it began. As long as they don't give away players to the Lakers, who cares what they do.
The Knicks are basically throwing away this year and next year so that they can have the CHANCE to get Lebron James. Two whole seasons thrown in the trash just for the opportunity to give a guy a max contract. Lebron James is Lebron James but does that make any sense? I guess you could say that this season was going to be a lottery year and that next year was hopeless as well but how can you do that to your fans? How can you expect fans to care about your team for the next two years if the management had said that they aren't going to care. If you have season tickets this year can you get a full refund? I would be really upset having to watch a starting lineup of Chris Duhon, Wilson Chandler, Quentin Richardson, David lee and Catino Mobley. Is that exciting? One of the most expensive tickets in the league and this the team they are going to put out for the next two years. Even worse is that they gave their number one pick to Utah a while ago that is protected this next year, but is unprotected the following year. That means that if they stay bad for two years like they plan to, the Jazz are going to own their 2010 lottery pick. Hope it ends up being number one.
There are a lot of free agents going to be available in 2010 but there a couple of issues that I have an issue with this forward thinking. When was the last time that a free agent turned the fortunes of a team around? Trades can turn change things for a team but I can't remember the last time that a major free agent signing changed the future of a franchise. Most free agent signings are too long and too high priced and end up backfiring on the team. I'll have to look up recent free agent signings and how many of them justify their contract. Actually, the Jazz signed Carlos Boozer and Okur the same summer, then got Williams and two years later really reaped the benefits. Those were reasonable signings for guys that were competitively priced. That rarely happens in the free agent market.
Sunday, November 23, 2008
Role players learning their roles
In a previous post, I mentioned that championship teams have role players that know their roles. Everybody has to be comfortable with the contributions that they are making. They have to come in and be energetic and defer to the stars when the stars are in. A malcontent can disrupt even the most talented of teams. Gordon Giracek was only a bit player last year but I couldn't think of a worse role player. He thought too much of himself. He demanded the ball and shot whenever he touched it. He wanted minutes when he didn't deserve them. He even thought he was a good defender which pointed towards his inflated ego. Statistically, Korver hasn't been much of an upgrade but Korver knows his role on this team and that is is much more important than talent. Oh, and he is a better shooter too.
I'm just going to forget the San Antonio loss even happened. It seems like Utah hasn't won there since Adrian Dantley was on this team and when you have George Hill and Rober Mason turning in video game like performances, you just chalk it up as one of those crazy losses.
The Suns, the Bucks and the Memphis games were good examples of how the team is developing. Two years ago with Boozer and Williams out, this team would never have had a chance to get a win. Just not enough offense. Now, the bench guys know how to run Sloan's offense. CJ Miles with 2 back to back 20 point games was impressive, but more impressive was that it wasn't on forced shots. He did it when the shots were there for him to take. Same with Brewer last night, It wasn't a case of Brewer being hot and just taking crazy shots that go in. Anyone can have a hot night and take nutty shots that fall but different guys are playing well every night within the concept of the team. One night it is Milsap, another it is Miles.
I've never been a big CJ Miles fan as he looks like he is running half speed most of the time but his play of late has been phenomenal. I'm hoping that all of Harpring's minutes go to him and that CJ learns to play a little tougher defense. Brewer's numbers are not much different than last year but you can see a huge difference in his confidence. Now he comes around screens looking to shoot and as awkward as his shot looks, its falling. I don't cringe when he pulls up for a 15 foot jumper. I just hope that it doesn't mean he stops going to basket because that is still where he makes his money.
This little stretch of injuries is going to help the Jazz tremendously by the end of the year. Williams and Boozer will be consistent and Okur is going to do what he does. Milsap looks like his offensive game has improved with some nifty little post moves. His defense is what really sets him apart and I bet he averages 2 blocks a game if he got more minutes. Kirilenko is playing better than last year but I'm still waiting to see if he can improve his defensive numbers. Part of the problem is minutes. He just isn't getting enough. He is the most versatile player on the team and deserves to play 35+ minutes, especially when the key players are hurt. It makes me crazy to watch Sloan stick with his rotation and limit him to 30-31 minutes. Winning without their stars is going to pay dividends in the long run.
I'm just going to forget the San Antonio loss even happened. It seems like Utah hasn't won there since Adrian Dantley was on this team and when you have George Hill and Rober Mason turning in video game like performances, you just chalk it up as one of those crazy losses.
The Suns, the Bucks and the Memphis games were good examples of how the team is developing. Two years ago with Boozer and Williams out, this team would never have had a chance to get a win. Just not enough offense. Now, the bench guys know how to run Sloan's offense. CJ Miles with 2 back to back 20 point games was impressive, but more impressive was that it wasn't on forced shots. He did it when the shots were there for him to take. Same with Brewer last night, It wasn't a case of Brewer being hot and just taking crazy shots that go in. Anyone can have a hot night and take nutty shots that fall but different guys are playing well every night within the concept of the team. One night it is Milsap, another it is Miles.
I've never been a big CJ Miles fan as he looks like he is running half speed most of the time but his play of late has been phenomenal. I'm hoping that all of Harpring's minutes go to him and that CJ learns to play a little tougher defense. Brewer's numbers are not much different than last year but you can see a huge difference in his confidence. Now he comes around screens looking to shoot and as awkward as his shot looks, its falling. I don't cringe when he pulls up for a 15 foot jumper. I just hope that it doesn't mean he stops going to basket because that is still where he makes his money.
This little stretch of injuries is going to help the Jazz tremendously by the end of the year. Williams and Boozer will be consistent and Okur is going to do what he does. Milsap looks like his offensive game has improved with some nifty little post moves. His defense is what really sets him apart and I bet he averages 2 blocks a game if he got more minutes. Kirilenko is playing better than last year but I'm still waiting to see if he can improve his defensive numbers. Part of the problem is minutes. He just isn't getting enough. He is the most versatile player on the team and deserves to play 35+ minutes, especially when the key players are hurt. It makes me crazy to watch Sloan stick with his rotation and limit him to 30-31 minutes. Winning without their stars is going to pay dividends in the long run.
10-2 Disappointing year for BYU
Expectations were so high this year you wonder if in the end that it worked against BYU. A high preseason ranking, dreams of a perfect season and secret aspirations for a second national title might have been too much pressure for even the most talented team to bear. Last night's Utah vs BYU game was close until the fourth quarter and then the pressure got to Max Hall. He uncharacteristically threw five interceptions, practically his tally for the entire season. Can you blame it all on Hall? I think some of the blame falls on the coaches. The differences in the outcomes for the two different teams are as disparate as their philosophies in self-promotion.
I'm sure that Bronco Mendenhall's slogan "quest for perfection" was conceived with the best of intentions. Every school in their heart of hearts is hoping that they go undefeated and have a chance at the national championship. It is a part of sports to aim for the best, to strive for something that is realistically out of reach. The fans and media sure did buy into the idea that BYU had the potential to go undefeated but football isn't golf. It isn't an individual pursuit with a stagnant competitor. It is an undulating team sport with dynamic opponents that you can't predict. Utah finished strongly last year and privately they felt that they could win the MWC. Some even mentioned that both teams could meet undefeated but BYU was the team that won most of the attention. Utah quietly went about their business. Even with BYU's loss to TCU, they could have salvaged the season against their hated rivals. The problem is that BYU didn't plan for an opponent that was stronger, faster and in the end, more perfect than they were.
The polls don't matter at this point for Utah as they have won the automatic qualifier for the non-BCS. Boise State also won in a close game so it was good for the MWC that Utah won or Boise State would have won the bid. You have to wonder about a conference where a team can go undefeated in 04, 06 and so far in 08. Even as dominant as USC has been over the last five years, with some serious NFL talent, they manage to slip up to a conference rival most seasons. Some will say that it proves that Boise State is a great team but I think it says a lot more about the quality of their schedule and the weakness of the conference. I had written that Boise State would have posted the same record as BYU if they had played BYU's schedule. Well, I think BYU goes undefeated if they play Boise State's schedule. TCU too. Same with another 20 teams in other conferences. You can't blame Boise State for their conference and they did beat their lone ranked foe on the road in Oregon, but I don't feel their team is cheated out of a BCS spot, they simply didn't deserve it. What more could they have done? Nothing really but the same could be asked for Utah. What more could Utah have done to have a chance at the national title? Nothing, but no one feels bad that they won't even be considered.
So it looks like BYU is going to the Las Vegas Bowl to play some awful Pac-10 team. It would be nice to have another chance at a decent school in a bowl game but I'm afraid that they would lose, thus going 0-3 vs good schools. Its better that they play a mediocre team like Arizona so that they can eek out a victory and preserve some of their dignity. There is always next year. Hopefully they have learned their lesson and will start the year humble instead of having it force fed to them by better teams.
I'm sure that Bronco Mendenhall's slogan "quest for perfection" was conceived with the best of intentions. Every school in their heart of hearts is hoping that they go undefeated and have a chance at the national championship. It is a part of sports to aim for the best, to strive for something that is realistically out of reach. The fans and media sure did buy into the idea that BYU had the potential to go undefeated but football isn't golf. It isn't an individual pursuit with a stagnant competitor. It is an undulating team sport with dynamic opponents that you can't predict. Utah finished strongly last year and privately they felt that they could win the MWC. Some even mentioned that both teams could meet undefeated but BYU was the team that won most of the attention. Utah quietly went about their business. Even with BYU's loss to TCU, they could have salvaged the season against their hated rivals. The problem is that BYU didn't plan for an opponent that was stronger, faster and in the end, more perfect than they were.
The polls don't matter at this point for Utah as they have won the automatic qualifier for the non-BCS. Boise State also won in a close game so it was good for the MWC that Utah won or Boise State would have won the bid. You have to wonder about a conference where a team can go undefeated in 04, 06 and so far in 08. Even as dominant as USC has been over the last five years, with some serious NFL talent, they manage to slip up to a conference rival most seasons. Some will say that it proves that Boise State is a great team but I think it says a lot more about the quality of their schedule and the weakness of the conference. I had written that Boise State would have posted the same record as BYU if they had played BYU's schedule. Well, I think BYU goes undefeated if they play Boise State's schedule. TCU too. Same with another 20 teams in other conferences. You can't blame Boise State for their conference and they did beat their lone ranked foe on the road in Oregon, but I don't feel their team is cheated out of a BCS spot, they simply didn't deserve it. What more could they have done? Nothing really but the same could be asked for Utah. What more could Utah have done to have a chance at the national title? Nothing, but no one feels bad that they won't even be considered.
So it looks like BYU is going to the Las Vegas Bowl to play some awful Pac-10 team. It would be nice to have another chance at a decent school in a bowl game but I'm afraid that they would lose, thus going 0-3 vs good schools. Its better that they play a mediocre team like Arizona so that they can eek out a victory and preserve some of their dignity. There is always next year. Hopefully they have learned their lesson and will start the year humble instead of having it force fed to them by better teams.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Should BYU fans be rooting for Utah?
This weekend's contest between BYU and Utah is probably the most anticipated game in the history of this rivalry so hopefully it lives up to expectations. Most games with this much hype turn out to be blowouts. There is a lot more on the line than bragging rights between family members. Major media outlets had been talking about this game even before the season began. In fact, why isn't this game covered on ESPN! Talk about a wasted opportunity to showcase its talent. The most important game in the history of the conference and only 2000 dish network subscribers will see the game on TV. Whatever the contract dispute, it shows some shortsightedness that needs to be reprimanded. Why not sign a one year deal just so that this game gets on TV? The problem with the Mtn is that it only reaches subscribers, which means you are a die hard MWC football fan already. The people you are trying to reach are general college football fans who are interested in a good game but wouldn't normally turn on a BYU game. How can you ever expect to recruit nationally if no one has even seen you play?
Final BCS scenarios.
So the non-BCS is looking like a 3 horse race with the finish line this weekend. Utah obviously has the clearest path. It controls its own destiny with computer numbers that Boise State can't match and a win preserves their lead in the Harris/Coaches polls. Utah might even leapfrog USC with an impressive win vs. BYU. Also, the Ok-Texas Tech game will determine if they jump a 2 loss Okalahoma. I doubt Texas Tech falls below Utah from a loss to a top 5 Oklahoma team.
Boise State is almost guaranteed the spot if Utah falls this weekend. They still have a semi-tough game against Nevada on the road. All they can do is win out and hope that Utah loses. Nevada played them well last year and more importantly, can a freshman quarterback really go undefeated? Going undefeated in even the worst conference is difficult. All it takes is one bad game. This is that bad game.
Ball State falling behind BYU last week was their virtual elimination from a BCS bowl. Even though Ball State plays a strong Central Michigan team helping their SOS, BYU's computer numbers will jump even more with a game against a #7 Utah, thus preserving their current lead if both teams win.
BYU needs to beat Utah and Boise State needs to lose one of the their last two games. It would be hard to rank a Utah team higher than a BYU team that just beat them and has the same number of losses. Boise State would probably fall 10 spots if they lose to any WAC opponent so that would place BYU around 12 in the polls, high enough to qualify for the automatic bid. They looked like they were finished a couple of week ago but all of the pieces might magically fall into place for them to get to their goal.
Long term outlook of non BCS teams
So looking past the immediate ramifications of a win or loss for either school, what would a win or loss mean for the long term. Part of that question is answered by another question. Setting all allegiances aside, which team would best represent the non-BCS in a bowl game?. In other words, who would have a chance at winning against a team like Oklahoma, Texas, or USC?
Boise State getting the bid is the least attractive option for the non-BCS. It has played the weakest schedule of the 3 schools and in one of the weakest conferences. It would be like Hawaii all over again but at least Hawaii had a Heisman Candidate in Colt Brennan that made the team interesting. A BCS bowl loss would only prove to detractors that non-BCS teams play bad teams and don't really belong there in first place. This might justify the eventual removal or stiffer requirements for automatic qualification for non-BCS teams. Of the three schools, it has the most modest chance of sustaining itself long term. The program is a young program with a lot of success that is dependent on their current coaching staff. It hasn't had the time to endure conference changes, coaches leaving, player scandals and the like that can tear a program down. The non-BCS doesn't need two hit wonders. What it needs are marquee teams that represent the group well. With all that being said, 2 BCS bowls in three years would be very impressive.
BYU getting the bid has its advantages and disadvantages. Getting a one loss team in would mean that the non-BCS had gained tremendous respect over the last few years. Nobody would ever have predicted that a one loss team would even qualify. A BYU win over a one loss team such as USC or Alabama in a bowl game would be a tremendous argument against the one loss handicap that the current non-BCS teams receive. It would justify the MWC's high rankings throughout the year and further the view the notion that it iis better than some of the BCS conferences. Sustaining that for two to three more years would provide legitimate credentials to gain entry into the BCS party. BYU also travels well and would bring its own fans to a game in any destination, especially Arizona. It also has the highest chance of sustainability as it is the best known program, the one with the most history and will be ranked in the top 15 next year in the preseason with many skill positions returning starters. The big down side is that not having an undefeated team is just not that exciting. An undefeated team makes it historic, David vs Goliath, a must watch college football game with a possibility of having an outside claim at the national championship. There is a sense of the unknown creating intrigue. A one loss team will be..well...boring for everyone outside of Utah.
I think that Utah getting the bid would create the most drama. It would have the best wins resume and it has some decent history on its side. Two BCS games with two different coaches shows sustainability. It would prove all of the things that a win by BYU provides but as an undefeated team. It could end up as high as 3d in the polls. If the national title game is close and Utah wins in a blowout, it could even get a few votes for #1 in the final AP poll. Finally, I think it is the best team all around, offense and defense that would give a good game to a BCS opponent. BYU also has had a horrific bowl history. Even last year's Las Vegas Bowl win was pretty pathetic considering UCLA wasn't even ranked.
Still, being a BYU fan you don't necessarily care for what is best for the conference, more what is best for your school so I can only hope BYU wins in a good game.
Prediction: Utah 28-BYU-21.
Final BCS scenarios.
So the non-BCS is looking like a 3 horse race with the finish line this weekend. Utah obviously has the clearest path. It controls its own destiny with computer numbers that Boise State can't match and a win preserves their lead in the Harris/Coaches polls. Utah might even leapfrog USC with an impressive win vs. BYU. Also, the Ok-Texas Tech game will determine if they jump a 2 loss Okalahoma. I doubt Texas Tech falls below Utah from a loss to a top 5 Oklahoma team.
Boise State is almost guaranteed the spot if Utah falls this weekend. They still have a semi-tough game against Nevada on the road. All they can do is win out and hope that Utah loses. Nevada played them well last year and more importantly, can a freshman quarterback really go undefeated? Going undefeated in even the worst conference is difficult. All it takes is one bad game. This is that bad game.
Ball State falling behind BYU last week was their virtual elimination from a BCS bowl. Even though Ball State plays a strong Central Michigan team helping their SOS, BYU's computer numbers will jump even more with a game against a #7 Utah, thus preserving their current lead if both teams win.
BYU needs to beat Utah and Boise State needs to lose one of the their last two games. It would be hard to rank a Utah team higher than a BYU team that just beat them and has the same number of losses. Boise State would probably fall 10 spots if they lose to any WAC opponent so that would place BYU around 12 in the polls, high enough to qualify for the automatic bid. They looked like they were finished a couple of week ago but all of the pieces might magically fall into place for them to get to their goal.
Long term outlook of non BCS teams
So looking past the immediate ramifications of a win or loss for either school, what would a win or loss mean for the long term. Part of that question is answered by another question. Setting all allegiances aside, which team would best represent the non-BCS in a bowl game?. In other words, who would have a chance at winning against a team like Oklahoma, Texas, or USC?
Boise State getting the bid is the least attractive option for the non-BCS. It has played the weakest schedule of the 3 schools and in one of the weakest conferences. It would be like Hawaii all over again but at least Hawaii had a Heisman Candidate in Colt Brennan that made the team interesting. A BCS bowl loss would only prove to detractors that non-BCS teams play bad teams and don't really belong there in first place. This might justify the eventual removal or stiffer requirements for automatic qualification for non-BCS teams. Of the three schools, it has the most modest chance of sustaining itself long term. The program is a young program with a lot of success that is dependent on their current coaching staff. It hasn't had the time to endure conference changes, coaches leaving, player scandals and the like that can tear a program down. The non-BCS doesn't need two hit wonders. What it needs are marquee teams that represent the group well. With all that being said, 2 BCS bowls in three years would be very impressive.
BYU getting the bid has its advantages and disadvantages. Getting a one loss team in would mean that the non-BCS had gained tremendous respect over the last few years. Nobody would ever have predicted that a one loss team would even qualify. A BYU win over a one loss team such as USC or Alabama in a bowl game would be a tremendous argument against the one loss handicap that the current non-BCS teams receive. It would justify the MWC's high rankings throughout the year and further the view the notion that it iis better than some of the BCS conferences. Sustaining that for two to three more years would provide legitimate credentials to gain entry into the BCS party. BYU also travels well and would bring its own fans to a game in any destination, especially Arizona. It also has the highest chance of sustainability as it is the best known program, the one with the most history and will be ranked in the top 15 next year in the preseason with many skill positions returning starters. The big down side is that not having an undefeated team is just not that exciting. An undefeated team makes it historic, David vs Goliath, a must watch college football game with a possibility of having an outside claim at the national championship. There is a sense of the unknown creating intrigue. A one loss team will be..well...boring for everyone outside of Utah.
I think that Utah getting the bid would create the most drama. It would have the best wins resume and it has some decent history on its side. Two BCS games with two different coaches shows sustainability. It would prove all of the things that a win by BYU provides but as an undefeated team. It could end up as high as 3d in the polls. If the national title game is close and Utah wins in a blowout, it could even get a few votes for #1 in the final AP poll. Finally, I think it is the best team all around, offense and defense that would give a good game to a BCS opponent. BYU also has had a horrific bowl history. Even last year's Las Vegas Bowl win was pretty pathetic considering UCLA wasn't even ranked.
Still, being a BYU fan you don't necessarily care for what is best for the conference, more what is best for your school so I can only hope BYU wins in a good game.
Prediction: Utah 28-BYU-21.
Monday, November 17, 2008
Home team vs the Road team. Which team is the real Jazz?
Two good opponenets, two competitive games, two different outcomes. The difference? Two different venues. The loss to the Lebron Jameses wasn't surprising or embarrassing. It was the last game of a 5 game road trip and the 2d half of a back to back so it was more of a scheduling loss but they had a lot of energy for 3 quarters. The game was close throughout until the Cavs went on a run in the fourth. The Jazz didn't have their full squad and the lack of poise in key situations shows on the road in tight games. 1-4 on the road trip with all four losses being winnable games. The home team always makes a run in the NBA and I'm not too worried because this is where a good point guard makes the difference. Not that it made much of a difference last year with their poor road record but last year was last year. This is Williams' team now and in those pressure moments on the road in a close game when the crowd is going crazy, he has the composure to slow the game down and find the right people.
My brothers and I had a rim that went up and down in our backyard and we would do crazy jams on it for hours. Lebron James looks like he is playing on an eight foot rim in his backyard all of the time. He gets up so high and dunks it so hard that you wonder if he is genetically engineered to play sports. This whole Kobe vs Lebron arguement ends this year as he officially takes the throne as the best player. Kobe has more refined skills but the sheer difference in physical strength, speed and size is too great to overcome. You don't even need to see his averages of 30-8-8 on a mediocre team to see his superiority. Anyone who watches him for even one quarter knows it is effortless. He is the big brother that says "enough" and bullies his way to the hoop. Kobe looks like a skinny KG out of high school compared to Lebron. Does he work out or just naturally look like that? He would be the greatest tight end of all time if he chose to play in the NFL. The combination of his quickness and size, you could go over the middle and he would be faster and bigger then anyone in the secondary. You could just lob it over the top and tell him to go jump for it with his 40+ inch vertical. I think most basketball players would make great wide outs in the NFL. Karl Malone might have been a fantatic tight end with his hands. He could catch anything that was within 10 feet of him and he would hurt people with his razor elbows.
Last night's game against the Suns went about the same for three quarters as the Cavs game except at home they have more reserve. They plug into their crowds energy and go on a 12 - 0 rub at a critical point in the game to pull out the win. The final score wasn't close but the game was close. Amare is unstoppable. A beast. He could average 14 points a game on dunks. He is another pure athlete almost in the Lebron class. Now if he only developed some post up moves to go with the dunks. They should do an experiment where they take 6-9+ guys with hops, long arms and coordination in the NBA and make them red zone wide outs in the NFL. Can you imagine Amare on a fade route? He would be Randy Moss but SIX inches taller and a higher vertical leap! Most of the cornerbacks are 5-11 to 6-3 and would be sniffing his armpits on touchdown grabs.
The whole team had a nice game last night. The second unit again with Knight, Milsap, Kirilenko, Korver broke this game wide open. The +/- numbers bear it out with that group being about +15. This group has been consistently extending leads and playing better than the first unit early in the season.
CJ had his first 20 point night of the year and shot very well. You could see this coming as the last couple of games he shot it better and he looks more comfortable in the offense. I expect him to have his ups and downs but I can see him putting in 8-10 points a game by the end of the year. Boozer was solid again. He has a tough assignment almost every night with the league having so many good power forwards. You wonder why he moves so well laterally on offense and can't on defense. Actually, I used to be the same way when I played as a youngster.
AK getting to the line is the essential to his offense. He was 8-8 from the line and averages more free throws than anyone else on the team. You can see what a boost the team gets when he blocks a shot. It is sad to see Shaq at this stage of his career. I remember three years ago watching a game where Yao blocked his shot straight up. It wasn't on a double team or from a help defender. That was when I knew that he wasn't the same the Shaq anymore. The old Shaq never had his shot blocked. If he had the ball tipped he would come down the next five possessions and just dunk on the fool. Now Shaq gets blocked three times in one night with one rebound. Its time for him to devlop his law enforcemnt and rap carreer. I'm exposing my younger brothers here but I admit they used to own one of his rap CDs. I'm sure they would like to bury that in their past.
What happened to Koufos last night and why did Collins play for 12 minutes and 55 seconds? His line was 0 pts, 0-2 from the line, 0 assists, 0 blocks, 0 rebounds and 2 fouls. He drives me crazy. Worst player in the NBA. Why does Jerry Sloan still play him minutes when you have young guys that could benefit from the experience? Harpring is the same story. He played 11:49 and that is almost 12 minutes that Miles, Brewer, AK, or even Morris Almond could have used. I saw some article in the SLTribune saying that the Jazz could have used his defense against Lebron James. What is the media's fascination with this guy. Announcers love to talk about how tough he is but no one mentions that he isn't productive anymore.
My brothers and I had a rim that went up and down in our backyard and we would do crazy jams on it for hours. Lebron James looks like he is playing on an eight foot rim in his backyard all of the time. He gets up so high and dunks it so hard that you wonder if he is genetically engineered to play sports. This whole Kobe vs Lebron arguement ends this year as he officially takes the throne as the best player. Kobe has more refined skills but the sheer difference in physical strength, speed and size is too great to overcome. You don't even need to see his averages of 30-8-8 on a mediocre team to see his superiority. Anyone who watches him for even one quarter knows it is effortless. He is the big brother that says "enough" and bullies his way to the hoop. Kobe looks like a skinny KG out of high school compared to Lebron. Does he work out or just naturally look like that? He would be the greatest tight end of all time if he chose to play in the NFL. The combination of his quickness and size, you could go over the middle and he would be faster and bigger then anyone in the secondary. You could just lob it over the top and tell him to go jump for it with his 40+ inch vertical. I think most basketball players would make great wide outs in the NFL. Karl Malone might have been a fantatic tight end with his hands. He could catch anything that was within 10 feet of him and he would hurt people with his razor elbows.
Last night's game against the Suns went about the same for three quarters as the Cavs game except at home they have more reserve. They plug into their crowds energy and go on a 12 - 0 rub at a critical point in the game to pull out the win. The final score wasn't close but the game was close. Amare is unstoppable. A beast. He could average 14 points a game on dunks. He is another pure athlete almost in the Lebron class. Now if he only developed some post up moves to go with the dunks. They should do an experiment where they take 6-9+ guys with hops, long arms and coordination in the NBA and make them red zone wide outs in the NFL. Can you imagine Amare on a fade route? He would be Randy Moss but SIX inches taller and a higher vertical leap! Most of the cornerbacks are 5-11 to 6-3 and would be sniffing his armpits on touchdown grabs.
The whole team had a nice game last night. The second unit again with Knight, Milsap, Kirilenko, Korver broke this game wide open. The +/- numbers bear it out with that group being about +15. This group has been consistently extending leads and playing better than the first unit early in the season.
CJ had his first 20 point night of the year and shot very well. You could see this coming as the last couple of games he shot it better and he looks more comfortable in the offense. I expect him to have his ups and downs but I can see him putting in 8-10 points a game by the end of the year. Boozer was solid again. He has a tough assignment almost every night with the league having so many good power forwards. You wonder why he moves so well laterally on offense and can't on defense. Actually, I used to be the same way when I played as a youngster.
AK getting to the line is the essential to his offense. He was 8-8 from the line and averages more free throws than anyone else on the team. You can see what a boost the team gets when he blocks a shot. It is sad to see Shaq at this stage of his career. I remember three years ago watching a game where Yao blocked his shot straight up. It wasn't on a double team or from a help defender. That was when I knew that he wasn't the same the Shaq anymore. The old Shaq never had his shot blocked. If he had the ball tipped he would come down the next five possessions and just dunk on the fool. Now Shaq gets blocked three times in one night with one rebound. Its time for him to devlop his law enforcemnt and rap carreer. I'm exposing my younger brothers here but I admit they used to own one of his rap CDs. I'm sure they would like to bury that in their past.
What happened to Koufos last night and why did Collins play for 12 minutes and 55 seconds? His line was 0 pts, 0-2 from the line, 0 assists, 0 blocks, 0 rebounds and 2 fouls. He drives me crazy. Worst player in the NBA. Why does Jerry Sloan still play him minutes when you have young guys that could benefit from the experience? Harpring is the same story. He played 11:49 and that is almost 12 minutes that Miles, Brewer, AK, or even Morris Almond could have used. I saw some article in the SLTribune saying that the Jazz could have used his defense against Lebron James. What is the media's fascination with this guy. Announcers love to talk about how tough he is but no one mentions that he isn't productive anymore.
Saturday, November 15, 2008
BYU's first big win! College Football Round up
BYU 38 Air Force 24!! Whoo hoo! From my last post readers might have thought that I was a Utes fan but in the interest of full disclosure, I admit that I have BYU leanings. This is the first victory against a winning program all season and although Air Force isn't a national power, they have had a good season. Their two losses had been to Utah in a close game and to Navy in a rivalry game lost on special teams mistakes. They haven't played the toughest schedule in the world but you get the sense their unorthodox approach would give many good teams fits. In the end they are a small program that doesn't have the size and speed to compete with the bigger schools but tends to overachieve.
Utah disposed of San Diego State and while it isn't quite the undefeated heavyweight fight that fans had hoped for, two top 15 teams playing for the Mountain West Championship isn't bad. As I stated in my last post, BYU needs this win to legitimize their ranking and season. Their schedule allowed them to lose to TCU, have a couple weeks to mope around and then gain some momentum going into the Utah game. I expect a close game as the talent level on both sides are about equal. Utah's offense has been up and down all season and so has BYU's defense. Whichever of the two shows up on Saturday will determine the winner. Max Hall has had four good games in a row and I don't expect him to have a problem with Utah's defense. I'll make a prediction later in the week.
Utah already has a solid resume. Their win over Oregon State is looking better and better each week. The win over TCU showed they can win a good defensive battle. They've already beaten Air Force and although Michigan had their worst season in history, a win in the Big House has historical significance for a program looking for national recognition. A win over BYU would mean an undefeated season, a solid conference championship and three wins over top 25 schools. In fact, you could say that this team would be more deserving of a BCS bid than the 2004 team. The only difference is the level of star power. No Heisman candidate Alex Smith and no hot shot coach Urban Meyer this year.
College Football Notes.
ACC
The ACC revolving door keeps spinning and spinning. By my count, they have had 8 different teams ranked during the course of the year. Every week, there are three new teams ranked somewhere in the bottom half of the top 25 and the very next week they lose. This week North Carolina(16), Florida State(19) and Wake Forest(24) all lost. These three will drop out and three new teams will show up next week and promptly lose. Look for BC, Maryland and Miami to take their places. Does having having 10 teams in a conference between 5-5 and 7-3 mean that the whole conference is good or that the whole conference is bad?
The Decline of Notre Dame
Notre Dame's star is gets dimmer and dimmer as they get further away from their last national championship. I know that they beat a pretty good Navy team this week, but the fact that Notre Dame fans are so ecstatic about beating a midshipmen team that they had previously beaten 40+ games in a row shows that this is not an elite program anymore. It is difficult for me to understand how a school that recruits nationally as well as they do can go through this long of a rebuilding process.
Big 12 up, SEC down.
The conference supremacy race has been between the SEC and the BIG 12 all season but we are seeing some separation down the strech. The SEC's true colors are showing as a top heavy conference with its share of weak teams. Florida has crushed teams all year long and is the favorite to represent the SEC in the BCS championship. They still have to beat Florida State and Alabama, but they certainly have the means to do it.
If you really look at Alabama's schedule, they only have one notable win vs. Georgia and an overtime victory vs. LSU. The rest of it is pretty weak and it is reflected in the computer numbers. You get the feeling that someone will expose this team and Florida is the team to do it.
LSU does not have a good win this year. They have lost all of their big games and nearly losing to Troy proves they are a middling squad who never deserved to be in the national title picture. Anyone who has watched them struggle with their offense knew they weren't going to be very consistent.
Georgia is a disappointment as the season's preseason #1. Their marquee win is over LSU. If they play a decent team, the games are close so look for Georgia Tech to give them a good game.
Auburn and Tennessee's early season rankings proved to be creations of the east coast media machine. Everyone jumped on the Vandy bandwagon but then tires went flat. In essence, the SEC is a two team race while the BIG 12 has five excellent teams that can compete with anyone in the nation.
Conference Rankings
1. Big 12 - no contest. 5 teams ranked in the top 15. All of the games between top teams have been close, competitive contests. Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma have true championship potential. None of the top teams have bad losses, only losses to good teams.
2. SEC - distant second. Urban Meyer might be looking at his second national championship.
3. Big Ten - Penn State and Ohio State might not be title contenders but are very good teams. Respectable middle of the pack with Michigan State, Northwestern and Iowa distinguishes the Big Ten from the MWC. On the other hand, the bottom has suffered a lot of bad losses to non-BCS squads.
4. MWC - Solid top 4 teams but terrible bottom 3 teams. Best year in the history of the conference. Bowl victories will mean more than ever. Please sign a contract with ESPN. What is the VS channel? Don't they show a lot of wrestling?
5. ACC- A lot of parity in the league with any team being able to defeat another team on a given week. This would be a tough conference to go through undefeated.
6. PAC 10 - You wonder how good Oregon and Oregon State are but if Oregon State beats Arizona and then Oregon, they are going to the Rose Bowl. That will mean 2 BCS bids as USC will get an at large birth. They were humiliated in non conference play this year but you have to like that they didn't schedule cupcakes like the rest of the big conferences.
7. Big Least - Pollsters feel obligated to rank someone so they just pick whichever team has the best record that week. Did you even know that Cincinnati had a football team? Who knew that they were good last year too? Hopefully the BCS drops this league for the MWC in a couple of years.
Utah disposed of San Diego State and while it isn't quite the undefeated heavyweight fight that fans had hoped for, two top 15 teams playing for the Mountain West Championship isn't bad. As I stated in my last post, BYU needs this win to legitimize their ranking and season. Their schedule allowed them to lose to TCU, have a couple weeks to mope around and then gain some momentum going into the Utah game. I expect a close game as the talent level on both sides are about equal. Utah's offense has been up and down all season and so has BYU's defense. Whichever of the two shows up on Saturday will determine the winner. Max Hall has had four good games in a row and I don't expect him to have a problem with Utah's defense. I'll make a prediction later in the week.
Utah already has a solid resume. Their win over Oregon State is looking better and better each week. The win over TCU showed they can win a good defensive battle. They've already beaten Air Force and although Michigan had their worst season in history, a win in the Big House has historical significance for a program looking for national recognition. A win over BYU would mean an undefeated season, a solid conference championship and three wins over top 25 schools. In fact, you could say that this team would be more deserving of a BCS bid than the 2004 team. The only difference is the level of star power. No Heisman candidate Alex Smith and no hot shot coach Urban Meyer this year.
College Football Notes.
ACC
The ACC revolving door keeps spinning and spinning. By my count, they have had 8 different teams ranked during the course of the year. Every week, there are three new teams ranked somewhere in the bottom half of the top 25 and the very next week they lose. This week North Carolina(16), Florida State(19) and Wake Forest(24) all lost. These three will drop out and three new teams will show up next week and promptly lose. Look for BC, Maryland and Miami to take their places. Does having having 10 teams in a conference between 5-5 and 7-3 mean that the whole conference is good or that the whole conference is bad?
The Decline of Notre Dame
Notre Dame's star is gets dimmer and dimmer as they get further away from their last national championship. I know that they beat a pretty good Navy team this week, but the fact that Notre Dame fans are so ecstatic about beating a midshipmen team that they had previously beaten 40+ games in a row shows that this is not an elite program anymore. It is difficult for me to understand how a school that recruits nationally as well as they do can go through this long of a rebuilding process.
Big 12 up, SEC down.
The conference supremacy race has been between the SEC and the BIG 12 all season but we are seeing some separation down the strech. The SEC's true colors are showing as a top heavy conference with its share of weak teams. Florida has crushed teams all year long and is the favorite to represent the SEC in the BCS championship. They still have to beat Florida State and Alabama, but they certainly have the means to do it.
If you really look at Alabama's schedule, they only have one notable win vs. Georgia and an overtime victory vs. LSU. The rest of it is pretty weak and it is reflected in the computer numbers. You get the feeling that someone will expose this team and Florida is the team to do it.
LSU does not have a good win this year. They have lost all of their big games and nearly losing to Troy proves they are a middling squad who never deserved to be in the national title picture. Anyone who has watched them struggle with their offense knew they weren't going to be very consistent.
Georgia is a disappointment as the season's preseason #1. Their marquee win is over LSU. If they play a decent team, the games are close so look for Georgia Tech to give them a good game.
Auburn and Tennessee's early season rankings proved to be creations of the east coast media machine. Everyone jumped on the Vandy bandwagon but then tires went flat. In essence, the SEC is a two team race while the BIG 12 has five excellent teams that can compete with anyone in the nation.
Conference Rankings
1. Big 12 - no contest. 5 teams ranked in the top 15. All of the games between top teams have been close, competitive contests. Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma have true championship potential. None of the top teams have bad losses, only losses to good teams.
2. SEC - distant second. Urban Meyer might be looking at his second national championship.
3. Big Ten - Penn State and Ohio State might not be title contenders but are very good teams. Respectable middle of the pack with Michigan State, Northwestern and Iowa distinguishes the Big Ten from the MWC. On the other hand, the bottom has suffered a lot of bad losses to non-BCS squads.
4. MWC - Solid top 4 teams but terrible bottom 3 teams. Best year in the history of the conference. Bowl victories will mean more than ever. Please sign a contract with ESPN. What is the VS channel? Don't they show a lot of wrestling?
5. ACC- A lot of parity in the league with any team being able to defeat another team on a given week. This would be a tough conference to go through undefeated.
6. PAC 10 - You wonder how good Oregon and Oregon State are but if Oregon State beats Arizona and then Oregon, they are going to the Rose Bowl. That will mean 2 BCS bids as USC will get an at large birth. They were humiliated in non conference play this year but you have to like that they didn't schedule cupcakes like the rest of the big conferences.
7. Big Least - Pollsters feel obligated to rank someone so they just pick whichever team has the best record that week. Did you even know that Cincinnati had a football team? Who knew that they were good last year too? Hopefully the BCS drops this league for the MWC in a couple of years.
Friday, November 14, 2008
Should BYU even be ranked in the top 25?
The knock against non BCS teams is that they play weak schedules and that they are ranked too high. Boise State and Ball State are undefeated but no one believes they would be undefeated in a BCS conference. They might be 5-5 in the SEC or the Big 12. Boise State would have trouble going undefeated in the Mountain West but it isn't their fault that they are in the WAC. Fairly or unfairly, Utah, BYU and TCU haven't had the same criticism levied against them because of the relative strength of the MWC this year. While I do feel that winning the MWC means something, I'm not sure if BYU's schedule has proven that they are a top 20 team.
BYU is ranked 14th in the coaches poll, 17th in the BCS but their ranking largely lies in being ranked highly in the preseason from last year's success. BYU fans will boast that they have a very healthy 9-1 record. They are also one of 11 teams in division 1A football with one loss or less. If they win the next two games they will be conference co-champions of the fourth best conference. Their only loss came to an 18th ranked TCU team with a very good defense. All of this is impressive except it disguses their awful schedule. Computer numbers have BYU's strength of schedule as low as 107(Sagarin ratings) which isn't much different than Boise State(115) and Ball State(118.) When the schedule was made, BYU didn't know that Washington was going to the worst team in college football. Same for UCLA being worse than last year. Here is BYU's schedule game by game.
1. W - Northern Iowa at home. Win fodder against an AA team. Every D1A football team other than Michigan beats this team. Can't count this win.
2. W - at Washington(0-9). Close win in the last second against a team that hasn't won a game all year. A win is a win. Washington's closest loss was 35-28 to Stanford.
3. W - UCLA(3-6) at home. The shutout isn't looking so hot right now as UCLA's best win is against 5-5 Stanford. One of those 5 wins was against Washington.
4. W - Wyoming(4-7) at home. Another meaningless shutout. Best win is against a Tennessee team with a lame duck coach. Still a nice win for the MWC!
5. W - at Utah State(2-8). Best win is against Hawaii. Boise State also crushed this team. Rivalry games count a little bit but does Michigan get credit for beating Western Michigan or Central Michigan or Northsoutheastern Michigan?
6. W - New Mexico(4-7) at home. Best win vs. Arizona. Probably the most impressive win for the MWC this year. New Mexico isn't a bad team but they are still 4-7.
7. L - at TCU(9-2). BYU gets blown out and TCU clearly has superior athletes. TCU's best win? Again, Stanford at 5-5 . Their best game is holding Oklahoma to 35 points while losing 35-10 in a game that was over by halftime. TCU might be overrated also.
8. W - UNLV(5-6) at home. BYU wins on a last second touchdown drive. This is BYU's best win to date. Let me repeat. THIS is BYU's best win to date. UNLV had a nice win against an underperforming Arizona State team.
9. W - at Colorado State(4-6.) Another last minute win. This was an important game 10 years ago. Colorado State's best win is UNLV.
10. W - San Diego State(1-9) at home. This was an important game 15 years ago. Have to stop living in the past. Only win is against Idaho. Good thing the MWC has the WAC to beat up on.
Combined record of opponents - 32-60 winning percentage of .347. No wins against a winning team. One blowout loss against a good team. I think Boise State and Ball State would have the same record if they played this schedule. In fact, I bet the top 40 teams would be 9-1 or better if they played this schedule. Does that mean that BYU is a bad team? No, just that they haven't proven anything this year. All of BYU's wins should count as one big win. Ok, perhaps 2 wins. They are like a 2 - 1 team. BYU has three real games left - Air Force today, Utah and then a bowl game. For them to stay ranked at the end of the year, they need to beat Utah. A win at Air Force and then a loss in Utah will only prove that BYU can beat up on mediocre teams but can't hang with the top programs. A 5-1 record after their bowl game would justify their current ranking and not perpetuate the idea that non-BCS teams are ranked too high.
BYU doesn't try to schedule four tough non-conference games because they don't need it to get national recognition. They usually schedule one or two tough non-conference games and two or three cream puffs. BYU is the one team in the non BCS that has the clout to get home at home series against good schools. Most smaller programs have to schedule 2 road games for every one home game against a name brand program. What incentive does a school like Ohio State have to play against Boise State? If they win, they were supposed to win being the BCS school. If they lose, then they suffer the embarrassment of losing to a non-BCS school. BYU doesn't even want to play tough games. If BYU didn't have to play TCU this year, say that they had played SMU and won, they would have a perfect record and probably be ranked in the top 5. If they had scheduled 4 tough non-conference games, they might have gone 2-2 and not be ranked at all. Same team, just different schedules. Which schedule would you choose if you were the athletic director? My gripe is that BYU is the one small conference team that can schedule good teams but they don't, and the teams that want to really can't.
BYU is ranked 14th in the coaches poll, 17th in the BCS but their ranking largely lies in being ranked highly in the preseason from last year's success. BYU fans will boast that they have a very healthy 9-1 record. They are also one of 11 teams in division 1A football with one loss or less. If they win the next two games they will be conference co-champions of the fourth best conference. Their only loss came to an 18th ranked TCU team with a very good defense. All of this is impressive except it disguses their awful schedule. Computer numbers have BYU's strength of schedule as low as 107(Sagarin ratings) which isn't much different than Boise State(115) and Ball State(118.) When the schedule was made, BYU didn't know that Washington was going to the worst team in college football. Same for UCLA being worse than last year. Here is BYU's schedule game by game.
1. W - Northern Iowa at home. Win fodder against an AA team. Every D1A football team other than Michigan beats this team. Can't count this win.
2. W - at Washington(0-9). Close win in the last second against a team that hasn't won a game all year. A win is a win. Washington's closest loss was 35-28 to Stanford.
3. W - UCLA(3-6) at home. The shutout isn't looking so hot right now as UCLA's best win is against 5-5 Stanford. One of those 5 wins was against Washington.
4. W - Wyoming(4-7) at home. Another meaningless shutout. Best win is against a Tennessee team with a lame duck coach. Still a nice win for the MWC!
5. W - at Utah State(2-8). Best win is against Hawaii. Boise State also crushed this team. Rivalry games count a little bit but does Michigan get credit for beating Western Michigan or Central Michigan or Northsoutheastern Michigan?
6. W - New Mexico(4-7) at home. Best win vs. Arizona. Probably the most impressive win for the MWC this year. New Mexico isn't a bad team but they are still 4-7.
7. L - at TCU(9-2). BYU gets blown out and TCU clearly has superior athletes. TCU's best win? Again, Stanford at 5-5 . Their best game is holding Oklahoma to 35 points while losing 35-10 in a game that was over by halftime. TCU might be overrated also.
8. W - UNLV(5-6) at home. BYU wins on a last second touchdown drive. This is BYU's best win to date. Let me repeat. THIS is BYU's best win to date. UNLV had a nice win against an underperforming Arizona State team.
9. W - at Colorado State(4-6.) Another last minute win. This was an important game 10 years ago. Colorado State's best win is UNLV.
10. W - San Diego State(1-9) at home. This was an important game 15 years ago. Have to stop living in the past. Only win is against Idaho. Good thing the MWC has the WAC to beat up on.
Combined record of opponents - 32-60 winning percentage of .347. No wins against a winning team. One blowout loss against a good team. I think Boise State and Ball State would have the same record if they played this schedule. In fact, I bet the top 40 teams would be 9-1 or better if they played this schedule. Does that mean that BYU is a bad team? No, just that they haven't proven anything this year. All of BYU's wins should count as one big win. Ok, perhaps 2 wins. They are like a 2 - 1 team. BYU has three real games left - Air Force today, Utah and then a bowl game. For them to stay ranked at the end of the year, they need to beat Utah. A win at Air Force and then a loss in Utah will only prove that BYU can beat up on mediocre teams but can't hang with the top programs. A 5-1 record after their bowl game would justify their current ranking and not perpetuate the idea that non-BCS teams are ranked too high.
BYU doesn't try to schedule four tough non-conference games because they don't need it to get national recognition. They usually schedule one or two tough non-conference games and two or three cream puffs. BYU is the one team in the non BCS that has the clout to get home at home series against good schools. Most smaller programs have to schedule 2 road games for every one home game against a name brand program. What incentive does a school like Ohio State have to play against Boise State? If they win, they were supposed to win being the BCS school. If they lose, then they suffer the embarrassment of losing to a non-BCS school. BYU doesn't even want to play tough games. If BYU didn't have to play TCU this year, say that they had played SMU and won, they would have a perfect record and probably be ranked in the top 5. If they had scheduled 4 tough non-conference games, they might have gone 2-2 and not be ranked at all. Same team, just different schedules. Which schedule would you choose if you were the athletic director? My gripe is that BYU is the one small conference team that can schedule good teams but they don't, and the teams that want to really can't.
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