Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Milsap making a case for starters minutes

Utah Jazz fans have known for the last 2 years that Paul Milsap was good but did they know that he was this good? The rest of the league has taken notice with his recent promotion to starter as his coming out party. He has started the last 12 games with Boozer being out and his numbers make you wonder who should start when Boozer gets healthy. 12 games - 18.7 pts, 11.7 rbs, 2.5 assists, 2 steals and 1 block per night. He's also has 12 straight double doubles (13 if you include tonight's Nets game.) Those are some impressive numbers for an undersized 6-7 PF that was taken in the 2d round.

You look at him now and you wonder how he slipped to the second round but undersized PF's aren't highly regarded by NBA scouts. At some point scouts are going to have to catch on that tough guys that are a little short are better than taller guys with no heart. Craig Smith, Leon Powe, and Jason Maxiell are guys that can play but weren't highly regarded due to their size. If you can play, there is a place for you in the league. Milsap and these guys have proven themselves but bad GM's will continue to take untested 7 footers over them. Part of the problem is that if someone takes Milsap in the first round, you get blasted for taking a guy that doesn't physically fit the mold of an NBA PF. You can gamble in the second round, so if Milsap ends up a bust then nobody remembers. A lot of teams out there that wish that they could have had Milsap. He went 47th in the 06 draft but if you did it all over again, only Aldridge, Roy, Gay, Brewer and Rondo would be taken ahead of him.

MIlsap overcomes his limitations with tremendous energy and a knack for being around the ball. He doesn't usually out jump his opponents but finds himself in the right spot at the right time. Especially on the offensive glass, he seems to know where the ball is going instead of having to fight for the ball. Not that he can't fight for the ball, which he also does very well. His activity on offense also translates to defense. Bigger players can shoot over him but he does force them to take jumpers instead of getting to the basket. One number that sticks out is the 2 steals a game. His hands are extremely active and he regularly deflects interior passes. When he plays with Brewer, AK and Knight, the Jazz have their best defensive unit capable of making stops.

Boozer himself was a second round pick so he knows a thing or two about making the most of your opportunities. They get their points in different ways, Boozer with a variety of pick and rolls, elbow jumpers and post moves while Milsap gets rewarded for his constant hustle with put backs and cuts to the basket. Milsap is developing a jump shot and is only getting better each year. As I have alluded to in previous posts, Boozer is really important for this offense to run smoothly. He gets his points against good defenders and has an uncanny connection with Williams. He commands double teams which Milsap has yet to see and is also a better interior passer. Boozer is an all star, an Olympic team member and when he comes back it will make big difference but you have to wonder if he is going to stay here next year.

The team next year is going to look quite different with all of the free agents on the team. With his previous history and Miami being a lot nicer than Salt Lake, I wouldn't feel safe until Boozer signs on the dotted line. Boozer is opting out and is probably looking for Elton Brand money - 5 years 80 million so having Milsap is good insurance. Would you rather commit 15+ million for five years to Boozer or sign Milsap for 5-6 years at 6-8 million a year and have money left over for someone else? Even with Boozer, this team is missing a player to be championship level so I don't know if it would be wise to throw big money to a guy who isn't taking you to the finals.

Williams is the franchise now and paying Boozer 15 million a year will only hurt this team in the long run. I would rather pay Milsap 50% of Boozers money and get 80% of his production. It would be great if they didn't lose Boozer for nothing but bad contracts ruin franchises and the Jazz already have AK's bad contract. The Jazz are usually pretty frugal so I can't imagine them breaking the bank for Boozer. In the end, it will be good for Milsap and good for the Jazz.

Celtics Jazz game notes

I went to the Boston vs. Utah game the other night and although the game was moderately close the whole night, the Celtics were clearly on a different level than the Jazz. Rondo and Perkins played excellent games and it was obvious that Rondo was quicker than anyone else on the floor. I'm not sure if it was his ankle or not, but Williams looked like he was standing still when he was trying to guard Rondo. He could get into the lane anytime that he wanted and didn't have to take a jump shot all night. You have to play off of Rondo and make him a jump shooter to take him out of his game but that is easier said that done. Rondo has all the tools to be a Devin Harris type point guard with better defense if he learned to hit the jumper. He is still young but NBA players stop developing after a while and this is already his 4th year so I wonder if he will ever learn to shoot well.

Looking at the box score, it looks like the big 3 had decent nights but the game told a different story. Ray Allen's shot was definitely off and he was passing up open jumpers most of the night. Paul Pierce struggled but he takes enough shots that he scores double figures. I liked how the Jazz put AK on him in the 4th which frustrated him. The hidden story was Garnett. He was 8-13 for 19pts, 10 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals, 2 blocks - a very efficient line but he looked unstoppable. He did whatever he wanted and virtually scored whenever he wanted. He never forced a shot, always looked to pass out of double teams and if he shot more, he could have easily scored 30. His game was effortless yet intense and you can tell that he lets his teammates shine when its possible. He is averaging only 13 shots a game and only 16pts, 9.6 boards - all career lows since his rookie year but his impact on the team might be at its peak. I watch a lot of Celtic games since I live in Boston and he is a player where the numbers do not tell the whole story. He could easily get 25, 12 and 5 if he forced his game. The Celtics win because he doesn't.

Paul Milsap
Milsap had a career night the other night. Most of his points came on cuts to the basket, I bet that he was assisted on half his points but he hit some jumpers that I didn't know that he had in his arsenal. He hit a fade away 20 footer that had the fans in Boston thinking that Karl Malone came out of retirement. He has a great touch around the basket and he is efficient, only taking shots that come to him in the offense. Other than some silly fouls, he plays tough defense and gets steals and blocks that Boozer doesn't even try for. When Boozer comes back, I don't know who you take off the floor between Boozer, Okur and Milsap at the end of games. Okur is money at the end of the game but he makes a bettert matador the way he plays defense. Boozer never comes up with big plays on defense and Milsap plays hard but is undersized. You have to have 2 way players at the end of games to make stops in close games and Milsap is the only one of the three that can do that.

Saturday, December 13, 2008

The MWC Bowling league

I have never understood why bowl games were such a big deal when there are 30+ bowl games. That means that over 60 of the FBS schools get "rewarded" with a bowl game. The other thing is that bowl game names change every few years when the sponsoring company's stock tanks. You don't know if a bowl game is important because it isn't the same bowl game anymore.

The bowl season is about to begin and the MWC has 5 of their 9 teams playing in the college post season. Just like the regular season, these bowl games have more meaning for the MWC than they have in the past. It's like the team that has a great regular season and then flames out in the playoffs. Those teams are remembered as either overrated or chokers - both labels that the MWC don't want hanging on them till next year. Having a winning record in bowl games will go a long way in establishing themselves as a premiere conference.

MWC bowl games

New Mexico Bowl
At Albuquerque
Payout: $750,000

Colorado State (6-6) vs. Fresno State (7-5), 2:30 p.m. (ESPN)

This is one lame bowl game. Does anyone care who wins this one? Fresno State was a major disappointment and you wonder what would have happened if they had beaten Wisconsin earlier in the year. Colorado State isn't exactly a world beater but it did have to finish well to get into this bowl game. It is nice to see them get out of the MWC basement as they used to be a football power. This is a toss up but maybe the fact that it is being played in MWC territory will help declare a victor.

Las Vegas Bowl
Payout: $1 million

BYU (10-2) vs. Arizona (7-5), 8 p.m. (ESPN)

Back to the Las Vegas Bowl again. BYU can't be very excited to be going back to sin city when they had designs on the BCS. In the end, this isn't a bad place for BYU to land. It is practically a home game for BYU with so many fans going down from Utah. They play a weak Arizona team that has already lost to New Mexico earlier this year which means more victory fodder for BYU. They will get credit for beating another PAC-10 squad and go 3-0 for the year against BCS conference teams. I expect them to squeeze out a close victory which is better than getting embarrassed by a good team. There is always next year.

Poinsettia Bowl
At San Diego
Payout: $750,000

Boise State (12-0) vs. TCU (10-2), 8 p.m. (ESPN)

This is the best bowl matchup outside of the title game and will mean a lot in establishing the Mountain West as the best non-BCS conference. TCU with its speedy defense vs. Boise State putting up crazy points makes it even more interesting. I'm surprised that Boise State took this bowl game. The payout is relatively meager and there are large risks with playing TCU. Boise State is undefeated and ranked in the top 10 but they can't shake the feeling that it is all due to playing in a weak conference. TCU has the defense to shut Boise State's offense down and if they look bad here then they will be exposed as the cream puff beaters that they are. If the win, well they were expected to win because they are undefeated. A loss would also prove that Boise State wouldn't have gone undefeated if they played in the MWC, let alone in a bigger conference. TCU might end up being ranked in the final top 10. I've been betting against Boise State all season and I will bet against them again with TCU stomping them like the stomped BYU.

Armed Forces Bowl
At Fort Worth, Texas
Payout: $750,000

Houston (7-5) vs. Air Force (8-4), Noon (ESPN)

This is a rematch of a close regular season game that Air Force won in Houston. Well the game isn't in Houston but it is in Texas and I imagine it will be favoring the Lone Star representative. Houston has a good offense and really has only one bad loss. They have good wins against Tulsa and East Carolina and other then their slip up to Marshall, their losses come from Air Force, Colorado State, Ok State and Rice. This one will probably be close but Air Force has been consistent in beating the teams that they are supposed to beat and I expect more of the same.


Sugar Bowl
At New Orleans
Payout: $17 million

Utah (12-0) vs. Alabama (12-1), 8 p.m. (FOX)

This is another great game for the MWC. Alabama was the number one team till the last week of the season so this isn't the Pitt team that they trashed in 2005. This is the second best team in the SEC, a top 5 team and was one game away from the national championship. They have a ton of history and a big name coach in Nick Saban to boot. No one in the national media thinks that Utah is legitimate and Alabama will have all of the pressure on them to win. The knock on non-BCS teams is that they play weak schedules but if they beat Alabama which went undefeated in the SEC regular season, it would strongly propose that that Utah could have done the same in a major conference. That will also boost both BYU and TCU as their losses have come from Utah.

Look closely at Alabama's schedule and you will see that it wasn't as tough as you would suspect coming from an SEC team. They have played 3 ranked teams other than Florida. They are Georgia - a former number one that really flamed out, LSU - showed its true colors by the end of the season falling out of the polls and Clemson which finished 7-5. Their pretty boy quarterback John Parker Wilson manages games but doesn't win them. All of their games against good schools were close and he only threw 9 TDs all season. Alabama really doesn't have the firepower to blow people out and it wouldn't be surprising if Utah won this game close. Utah has managed to win its close games and this shouldn't be any different.

So I expect a 4-1 post season, with the Utah and Colorado State games being toss ups. No one remembers the regular season but bowl memories are quite long so hopefully it will turn out well for the non-BCS folks.

Friday, December 12, 2008

Good win against Portland for the Jazz

Last night's win against Portland was the best win for the Jazz all season. They haven't played many tough games so far and Portland has been playing well of late. The Jazz really dominated this game for 4 quarters and it was never even that close in the second half. Their two wins against Portland are their only quality wins this season. The last couple home games haven't inspired confidence and fans are not used to having 3 home losses so early in the season.

The most impressive thing was how they ramped up their defense when Portland would make mini runs. Multiple times when the lead was cut to 8 or 10 the Jazz would respond with stops. They were much more active than usual and in the second half used some strong double teams forcing bad passes. What was also different was some strong double teams in the post which is unusal for Sloan. They also didn't let Portland get in the lane and get to the free throw line. TV announcers always talk about the Jazz's no lay up policy - or better put - just hack anyone that gets by you defense. I can't stand watching Mehmet Okur not trying to block a shot but just hack to stop a guy from getting a lay up. If you just played good defense, other teams wouldn't hit 70% of their lay ups in traffic as they hit 70% of their free throws. The Jazz haven't been hacking as much but it might have to do with Harpring and Boozer being injured as they are the some of the worst foul mongers.

Another nice wrinkle was having AK play Roy during the fourth quarter. Roy went crazy in the 3d and it looked like he was ready to take over the game. AK guarded him the rest of the way and really shut him down. He didn't have many touches and his 7 points came on a 3 where Kirilenko rotated off, a lay up where Kirilenko lost him and a meaningless lay up in the final minute. For some reason, Sloan has lost confidence in AK and has been playing him less and less minutes and not having him finish games. If you want AK to be a useless player by the end of the season, keep playing him 22 minutes a game and have him sit at the end of games. His handling of Andre will go down as his biggest mistake and possibly the reason why this current group never wins a championship.

I'm not worried about Williams as it will take some time for him to be at full strength. He looked good passing the ball last night with some great dishes after penetration but he still looks ordinary with this finishes. He gets a ton of his lay ups blocked and he had another bad shooting night. When he goes into the lane, I hope that that he passes because it is embarrassing how many time his shot gets thrown back at this face. I'm sure this will get better as he gets more explosive.

Milsap and Okur really have been playing excellent of late. You have Boozer go down and the new stars show up. I love Milsap's energy and hustle and he has developed some nice moves around the basket. He definitely is more than just a bruiser down and shows a nice touch around the basket. Of course he doesn't have the offensive skill of Boozer but if Boozer played with half the heart that Milsap plays with on defense then the Jazz would be set. Milsap still gets overmatched by bigger guys. He had a hard time with Aldridge last night but he gets blocks and steals that Boozer doesn't even try for.

As impressed as I am with Milsap's play, this team is really different with Boozer playing. Let's say that Milsap starts all season and averages 15 and 10. That would be impressive but Milsap gets his points in completely different ways than Boozer does. Boozer creates his own shot and commands a double team in the post giving other players open shots. When the Jazz need a crucial score, they can go to Boozer for a mid range jumper or go pick and roll. Milsap doesn't have the same automatic scoring. Automatic scoring is a premium in this league. Guys like Boozer get 15-10 on off nights. Scoring in the NBA is largely dependant getting double teams and forcing bad match ups. Boozer creates mismatches every night where as Milsap doesn't. That doesn't mean that Milsap integral to the team's success, in fact he might be the team's MVP so far this season. We will see what happens when he comes up for contract because if Boozer leaves, it would definitely soften the blow if Milsap is here to take his spot. Right now, they have the best of both worlds and Milsap coming off the bench for 25+ minutes will mean success for the Jazz.

It makes me sick every time Harpring comes in the game and the announcer states the obligatory "oh he is the toughest guy in the NBA." "He is more of a football player, he comes from a football family." " He is so tough, just a great guy to have on your bench." As you might have guessed, I really dislike Matt Harpring. He had has day as the star of the team 5 or so years ago and he did a nice job but those days are long past and so are his knees. For some reason, Sloan never gets mad at him for jacking up a shot every time he touches the ball. He plays for 8 minutes and takes 4 shots. He can't defend anyone and had 3 fouls during his limited duty. He is an awful passer and I'm surprised that there haven't been more injuries on the Jazz from him hitting people during practice. He is definitely the crazy white guy on the court that is running around like a mad man breathing really hard, can't control his momentum and knocks you in the nose with an elbow. Sloan has to stop playing this guy. If you are going to give 8 minutes to someone, why not give them to CJ miles or Morris Almond? Why not give them to Kirilenko who is getting less than 20 minutes a game? I know it is only 8 minutes but this team is deep and you have young guys that are developing and need time out there. Announcer should recognize that he is just a skillless brute and a huge liability on defense.

Friday, December 5, 2008

Quarter year report

It is only early December but 25% of the season is already over for the Jazz. After 20 games we have learned some things that we didn't know before the season started and some things are still up in the air.

What we have learned:
CJ Miles is an NBA rotation player.
While he hasn't put up amazing numbers, you couldn't have expected much more from a 21 yr old that hasn't played much. 20 games, 19 starts, 22 minutes a game, 10.7 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 2.1 apg and two 20+ point games. It is strange watching the Jazz with some many guys that can catch an alley oop. There are tons of players that show flashes of brilliance for one play or one quarter but what is more impressive is his confidence. He is staying in the Sloan offense and takes that shots that present themselves. Miles looks to pass to the right player and he is confident enough to pass up a shot. I wish he played with a little bit more energy, like Morris Almond, but Almond is a desperate man playing for a contract so there is a different level of urgency. I can see CJ taking all of Harpring's minutes as instant offense off the bench. He has the potential to be a solid starter if he learns to do something other than score. You have to love how effortless that lefty jump shot looks.

Kosta Koufos, back up center of the future.
The Jazz haven't had a big man that can block shots since Ostertag and nobody wants to go back to the days of Ostertag. He probably lost more assists for Stockton than actually scoring off his passes. I'm not projecting Koufos to be a starer in the league anytime soon but he has done some nice things in limited playing time. He plays with a lot of energy. He moves pretty well for a 7 footer and shows a decent jumper. He doesn't have rocks for hands. That's it, that all someone has to do prove he is better than Collins. I don't see why Sloan wouldn't play him 10 minutes a game to get him some experience and hopefully block a couple of shots. As I am writing this, I am stunned by how stubborn coach Sloan is. The fact that Collins is still on this team and up till last year was getting 10+ mintues a game is amazing. It is 4 on 5 when he is on the floor. I would much prefer Koufos or Fesenko taking all of his minutes.

Sloan's system is more important than players
The Jazz have had a ton of injuries and different players getting minutes every night but the Jazz continue to get their wins and even without Williams or Boozer, this would be a .500 team. It shows the strength of an offensive system that enhances the abilities of the players. Really talented teams can win running and gunning but as the Olympics this past summer showed, a good team offensive can compete with an ultra-talented team. Half of Brewer's points are lay ups off of back cuts and dives to the basket that are system driven. Harpring did a lot of the same things but took more jumpers than slashing to the basket. Miles will eventually learn the same things. Shandon Anderson and Bryon Russell used to do the same things 10 years ago. Jerry Sloan has his faults but having an offensive system that works is what keeps him employed as an NBA head coach. Sloan would do wonders with a young talented team that needs discipline.

Still waiting for answers
Morris Almond's future
He didn't get his contract extended but has been getting some playing time these last couple of games and even played most of the fourth quarter the other night. Almond has been playing well with the limited minutes that he gets and it sounds like he works hard in practice. He plays with good energy and is a natural offensive player. The problem is that Brewer and Miles are in front of him. Brewer is a better athlete and defender. Miles has more potential as an all around player. I see Almond becoming an Eddie House type gunner in a few years. I hope they deal him and get a 1st round pick in return.

AK fully loaded or shooting blanks?
AK has played pretty well as the sixth man and his numbers have inched back towards his production from a couple of years ago. Overall, everyone is very happy with what he has provided off the bench and how he has handled the perceived demotion. There are a couple of things that make me wonder if the joy will last throughout the season. AK needs touches to be involved in the offense and for that, he needs minutes. His minutes are already tailing off a little as they did as the season progressed last year. When the team is at full strength, his minutes might get cut even more. I think it has to do with Sloan being harder on him than other players on the team. It puzzles me how much Sloan complains about his play when AK does more of the little things that don't show up in the box score than anyone else. He leads the team in deflections and hustle plays. In the end, it will depend on Sloan's ability to adapt and let AK play his game. If he can't do it and limits his minutes, AK will be unhappy and his production will tail off. At some point AK needs to be in Golden State playing for Don Nelson and with his taller twin brother Andres Biedrins. Also, Deron Williams doesn't like passing to AK. Just watch, he hates to pass him the ball.

Team Defense
So I mentioned in the season preview that the biggest issue with the Jazz is their lack of good team defense and that still holds true. The Jazz have get a lot of steals but there is a huge difference between stealing the ball and playing good defense. If you watch the team down the stretch of a close game, the Jazz might force the occasional turnover but they don't get regular stops. You don't see the defense tighten up and force tough shots. Steals means jumping in passing lanes. Stops means good team defense. This I think, falls on the coach. Good team defense is system oriented and Sloan's unwillingness to experiment with more zone defenses, double teams and different switching schemes is what keeps the Jazz from being better.

Just a playoff team or contender
The Jazz are definitely a playoff team but there are few title contenders. The definite contenders so far are Boston, LA and the Cleveland. The possible contenders are Houston, New Orleans, San Antonio and Utah. That's it. Portland is still too young and Denver will be a nice regular season team but without enough talent to win it all. The Jazz defense and road record will tell you if they are better than last year.