College Fooball Notes

This has been an amazing college football season for non-BCS fans. There are 2 teams in the top 10, both with legitimate chances of being undefeated and playing in a BCS bowl. BYU, TCU and Ball State will be in the top 20 and Air Force will probably be ranked 25th this week. 4 ranked teams in one poll for the MWC would be a milestone that proves to a lot of people that the MWC has really improved. I think a lot of objective people would vote the Mountain West at least the fourth best conference, and maybe even the third.

TCU
TCU will probably fall to about 18-20 after losing to a mentally tough Utah team. I think that they were at a disadvantage having not played any close games recently. All of their games have been blowouts (even the loss against OK and the win vs BYU) and there is a different mentality needed with a game that is close in the fourth quarter. Utah has played close games all season and won and that type of training was vital with pressure situations in the fourth quarter. TCU is probably the better, more talented team but Utah outplayed them in this one game elimination for a spot in the BCS.

UTAH
With Penn State losing today, Utah moves up one spot to the 7th spot and maybe even higher for beating a good team in TCU. With the way the schedule works, Alabama, Texas, and USC look like they will win out their seasons and so will only move up. The loser of the OK-Texas Tech game will drop below Utah. Florida has a mildly tough game left in Florida State, but they should win that. Utah will probably still be ranked 7th and BYU ranked 12th or so when they play in two weeks. This is assuming that BYU beats Air Force on the road, which might not happen. I haven't looked it up, but I am assuming that this is the highest that both teams will be ranked while playing each other, which will make this rivalry game even more exciting. Too bad nobody will see it except the four people who subscribe tho the MTN.

BCS scenarios
I expect Utah to beat BYU, but do they have any chance to get into the Championship game? What happens if Oklahoma beats Texas Tech but then loses to Ok State. Oklahoma would be eliminated with 2 losses. Texas wins the Big 12 south division and plays in the BIG 12 championship game. Losing to Missouri would make them a 2 loss team. If Alabama beats Florida to win the SEC championship game, then Florida would also have 2 losses. That would leave only USC to leap frog and comparing the resumes and conferences of the two schools, Utah would have as good or better of an argument than USC. Utah would boast wins over BYU, TCU, Air Force and Oregon State, winning the MWC which is stronger than the Pac 10 this year and an undefeated record. USC has wins over Ohio State, Oregon and Cal, but lost to Oregon State and the MWC has owned the PAC 10 this year. I'm not saying that Utah is better than USC but that their body of work over the course of the year would be more deserving than USC. There are a lot of big IF's in this little scenario but it is amazing that a non-BCS school has a plausible chance to play in the championship game this late in the year.

BYU
BYU is in an interesting position as it looked like they were done after the TCU loss and somehow the computers have resurrected them in the BCS polls. The jumped from 20 to 15 with a sorry win over Colorado State and we will see where they are this week. Perhaps at 13-14 with Georgia nearly losing, OK state now with 2 losses and TCU with 2 losses. If BYU beats Air Force, then like I mentioned before BYU plays Utah ranked 12th or so and Utah 7th. They would most likely end up in the top 12 in the BCS polls but would they leap frog an undefeated Boise State team? Probably not and while theoretically BYU would be the second non BCS qualifier, there is no way that a BCS bowl would pick BYU over Ohio State, Georgia, or Missouri. Too bad that not being chosen is going to mean the Las Vegas Bowl. Why can't BYU end up in a bowl game vs Michigan State, LSU or North Carolina and prove that they can hang with the BCS? The Mountain West undervalues itself by binding their conference winners to play fourth place teams in the PAC-10.

Playoff vs Current System
With Obama mentioning an eight team playoff, the buzz about a new system is gaining strength again. What teams this year would get into an eight team playoff? Would it be conference winners or would it be by polls? As bad as the BCS system is, I don't see any how an eight team playoff would be any better for getting non-BCS in the mix. Would Utah even make it to an eight team playoff this year? I actually think that a guaranteed spot for non-BCS teams for a BCS bowl is about as equitable as it needs to be. The Big 12 and SEC actually get cheated out of a spot in a bowl game by having their conference championship games. A small conference like the Big East with only eight mediocre teams benefits the most as you have a higher chance of winning the conference championship (1/8 is better than 1/12.) I think the fact that Boise State has a legitimate shot at a BCS bowl coming from the WAC, when if they were in any other conference they wouldn't be conference champs, is very generous.