The season is three days old and already lots of things to talk about
The Rockets are good. When did a Rocket team score 112 points and Mcgrady only take 10 shots? Artest might be the best player on a team that won 50+ games without him. Mcgrady doesn't have to be ON every night, he can just score when he needs to, grab rebounds, get assists but doesn't have to dominate for the Rockets to win if Artest carries some of the scoring burden. Yao is pretty much automatic at about 25 and 10 every night as long as he is healthy. He is like the Asian kid that used to sit next to you in math class. Not flashy and doesn't look good but always got the highest grade on the test. The Rockets can score, defend, have great one on one defenders, rebound exceptionally and have role players that play their role. No one on this team needs to exceed their capablities in order for them to win. Now if Mcgrady can find a donor to get him some heart, this team might be championship caliber.
The Lakers are good. Last year was the first year that the team had any kind of success and they went all the way to the finals. This year they have the swagger of a returning champion, or at least the favorite to be the champion and they know it. Bynum wasn't amazing last night but he didn't need to be for them to win. What's great about this team is that they are deep enough that no one guy needs to be consistent. Kobe is very consistent but then Odom has always disappeared every second game or so. Gasol can be shut down and Bynum is too young to be consistent, but all Kobe needs is one of them to have a good game for the Lakers to win. Jordan Farmar keeps getting better and is going to take a lot of minutes from Fisher this year, which is good because I've always hated that robotic shooting motion and the put your head down he's going left again drives of his. This is another team that has stars but also great role players. Just of note, I'm not a big Bynum fan but now with that contract he just signed, he just joined the hall of fame for all of the other overpriced big men that get rewarded for playing well in a handful of games. He's better than Calvin Booth, Jim Macilvaine, Jon Koncac, and Erik Dampier but will he be better than Big Country Reeves who was 16 and 8 in his prime. If you don't believe me look it up.
I was watching a replay of Hakeem Olajawon's first game in the NBA today on NBA tv and he was impressive but even more impressive was Ralph Sampson. He was in his second year I think at the time and this guy was 7'4" but moved liked someone 6'8". He was grabbing rebounds high in the air, not flat footed like most 7 footers that lack mobility. There was a possession where he blocked a shot and then Hakeem blocked the next one that lead to a fast break, talk about tough interior defense. Too bad he only shined for a couple of years or that duo might have gone down as the best of all time.
It was a bold move by Dantoni to sit Curry and Marbury the other night. Luckily his strategy worked and the Knicks won but we will see what happens if they go on a losing streak. I can understand Curry not playing because you get the same thing with more efficiency with Randolph. They basically cancel each other out so why have two of them. Knick fans have been waiting 2 years to see David Lee gets starters minutes. What was Isiah thinking? He is the only guy on the team that hustles and he was only playing 20 minutes a game. He can easily average a Charles Oakley style 15 and 10 on pure hustle. He is a perfect compliment to a guy like Randolph because he doesn't need to dominate the ball and he creates his own possessions. I've already said that I'm not a Duhon fan and I think 20 minutes of Marbury can give you more than 20 minutes of Duhon. I like Nate Robinson off the bench but if he is your starting point guard then your team is in trouble. He doesn't like to pass and has too many match up problems defensively to be on the floor for the whole game. We'll see what will happen but its nice for Knick fans to have something to cheer for even if it is only for one game.
Ok, before everyone goes crazy over this Kevin Love kid, I have to remind everyone that it was just one game against a very bad team. I don't know if there is any precedent for a goofy 6'10 white guy that can't jump and doesn't move well to be very good in this league. I'm sick of people talking about this guy's outlet passes, that is all I have heard about since he started last year at UCLA. How many outlet passes can you make in a game, 2, 3? The only guy I can think of that has the same size and movement is Mehmet Okur but he isn't a good comparison.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Predictions for the New Year
So some random picks and predictions
ROY - Greg Oden. I would pick Beasley if he was on a team without a star like Durant last year. He could jack up 20 shots a game and get his numbers but he wont get as many touches with Wade fully healed and Marion looking to prove himself. Oden wont see many touches either but that actually helps him. He can concentrate on rebounds and good defense. If he averages 12 points on put backs, 10 boards and 2 blocks, he will win the ROY. Others in the mix - Beasley, OJ Mayo. Surprises: Chris Douglas-Roberts and Joey Dorsey. Busts: Both Lopez Twins. The Collins twins are about the retire so these guys can take their place.
MVP - Lebron James. Voters like surprises and winning teams. The MVP doesn't usually go to the best player but usually the best player on a contending team or a player that is playing a level above his previous level on a winning team, but not the best player in the league. Lebron James can play exactly the same as last year and win the MVP simply because Mo Williams is on the team now and they will finish near the top of the East. I don't expect him to put up better numbers than last year's phenomenal 30-7-7 but the team will win more games. Kobe won his MVP and so voters are looking for a someone new. Chris Paul became the new blood last year and is a lock for the MVP if his team wins the West, even if he Deron Williams has a better year. Look for Yao Ming as the dark horse to win the MVP as his Rockets will win their division and be near the top of the West. The Media would love to give it to Yao - he is a great guy and he would fit international image of the NBA that everybody wants to promote.
Random notes
I'm not sold on the Hornets. The Hornets are the Jazz of last year. They were the surprise regular season team that played well in the playoffs. No one had any expectations for them so any success was a bonus. They add Posey and people are declaring them the next NBA champs. I like Chris Paul. He reminds me of KJ. KJ was great but he couldn't take a team to the finals by himself, he needed Barkley. West and Chandler are nice players but aren't superstars. Stojakovic played well last year but he is well past his prime. Morris Peterson isn't a starter but would be nice to come off the bench for instant offense. Posey is the proverbial final piece for a championship team but I think that the Hornets overpaid for a player only useful when well, you just need that last player. Championship teams nowadays need three stars and the Hornest don't have the star power, or the role players to make them a legit championship team. Speaking of comparisons, Deron Williams reminds me a little of Tim Hardaway. Both are deceptively quick with ridiculous crossovers, good jumpers and could lay off the Mcdonalds. I think the Hornets take a step back this year. Losing Pargo will hurt them off the bench.
The Knicks, the Knicks. My hometown Knicks are a mess even before the season starts. We'll see if Dantoni is really as good as people think he is. Chris Duhon the starting point guard? He barely started at Duke. There is a clear distinction between starting point guards and back up point guards in this league. Sometimes teams get away with playing back ups as starters if the rest of their team is great, such as the Jordan Bulls or the Shaq/Kobe Lakers (Fisher is not a real starter as both Golden State and Utah found out) but the Knicks don't have the personnel to disguise Duhon. They have so much dead weight on that team - Curry, Marbury...this isn't a one year rebuilding project, it is more like a three year plan. Nobody remembers how bad Scott Layden was because Isiah Thomas is by far the worst GM in the history of sports.
Best at each position
PG
1. Chris Paul - Steals and already being the #1 guy on his team gives him the edge over Williams.
2. Deron Williams - Becomes Utah's clear leader, needs to take more 3's and play better D.
3. Baron Davis - Too injury prone to be higher, too much talent to be much lower.
4. Steven Nash - You know what you will get with him and has the best jump shot in the league.
5. Jose Calderon - Efficient, will do a great job running a very good surprise Raptors team.
SG
1. Kobe Bryant - Lost a little respect in the Finals when he couldn't take over at will. Also wasn't the best player on the floor at the Olympics most of the time. That honor went to either Wade or James
2. Tracy Mcgrady - Will shine with less pressure on him to perform.
3.Manu Ginobili - A little risky with the injury but had his best year last year and is pretty much unstoppable when he is on.
4. Allen Iverson - Up in years but has always been an underrated passer. Can still score better than most.
5. Kevin Martin - One dimensional scorer is very efficient at that one dimension, needs to develop his passing though to be able to carry a team. At this point is a younger, better version of Michael Redd.
SF
1. Lebron James - Best talent in the game. His physique makes Kobe look like he is still in high school.
2. Carmelo Anthony - Scores so easily, inside, outside, can get 30 on just about anybody without really trying. Doesn't do too much more. Looks like he is happy getting his numbers.
3. Paul Pierce - Showed what he can do in the clutch. Not speedy but gets to the basket when he wants to.
4. Kevin Durant - Will put up big numbers again but needs to average close to 10 boards like he is supposed to. Can't be a one dimensional scorer.
5. Josh Smith - Amazing athlete but little refined skill. Still, he does it all. He is the black Andre Kirilenko. Would love to have this guy running around as my fourth best player on my team.
PF
1. Amare Stoudemire - With Nash passing to him can score almost at will. I love that he doesn't lay the ball up if he can dunk it.
2. Tim Duncan - On the decline but few have proven that they are all around better just yet
3. Kevin Garnett - His decline in numbers meant little for wins.
4. Chris Bosh - Best USA big man this year, has the talent to be at the top next year
5. Dirk Nowitzki - Can take over a game, has proven he can be the man and more versatile than Boozer who would be next on the list.
C
1. Yao Ming - Great shooter and has go to moves to score. No other center has go to moves to score.
2. Dwight Howard - Should be better than Ming soon but needs to work on some moves other than the two hand flush. Looked lost at the Olympics.
3. Andrew Bogut - Getting better each year and who else is going to score for the Bucks?
4. Mehmet Okur - Sadly, even though he plays no defense, he makes this list as he can score better than most and is a underrated rebounder.
5. Greg Oden - Will eventually move up but as a rookie I would like to see him stay healthy and average 12-10- and 2 blocks. He wont be the superstar that most people predict but he will contribute to a winning team.
ROY - Greg Oden. I would pick Beasley if he was on a team without a star like Durant last year. He could jack up 20 shots a game and get his numbers but he wont get as many touches with Wade fully healed and Marion looking to prove himself. Oden wont see many touches either but that actually helps him. He can concentrate on rebounds and good defense. If he averages 12 points on put backs, 10 boards and 2 blocks, he will win the ROY. Others in the mix - Beasley, OJ Mayo. Surprises: Chris Douglas-Roberts and Joey Dorsey. Busts: Both Lopez Twins. The Collins twins are about the retire so these guys can take their place.
MVP - Lebron James. Voters like surprises and winning teams. The MVP doesn't usually go to the best player but usually the best player on a contending team or a player that is playing a level above his previous level on a winning team, but not the best player in the league. Lebron James can play exactly the same as last year and win the MVP simply because Mo Williams is on the team now and they will finish near the top of the East. I don't expect him to put up better numbers than last year's phenomenal 30-7-7 but the team will win more games. Kobe won his MVP and so voters are looking for a someone new. Chris Paul became the new blood last year and is a lock for the MVP if his team wins the West, even if he Deron Williams has a better year. Look for Yao Ming as the dark horse to win the MVP as his Rockets will win their division and be near the top of the West. The Media would love to give it to Yao - he is a great guy and he would fit international image of the NBA that everybody wants to promote.
Random notes
I'm not sold on the Hornets. The Hornets are the Jazz of last year. They were the surprise regular season team that played well in the playoffs. No one had any expectations for them so any success was a bonus. They add Posey and people are declaring them the next NBA champs. I like Chris Paul. He reminds me of KJ. KJ was great but he couldn't take a team to the finals by himself, he needed Barkley. West and Chandler are nice players but aren't superstars. Stojakovic played well last year but he is well past his prime. Morris Peterson isn't a starter but would be nice to come off the bench for instant offense. Posey is the proverbial final piece for a championship team but I think that the Hornets overpaid for a player only useful when well, you just need that last player. Championship teams nowadays need three stars and the Hornest don't have the star power, or the role players to make them a legit championship team. Speaking of comparisons, Deron Williams reminds me a little of Tim Hardaway. Both are deceptively quick with ridiculous crossovers, good jumpers and could lay off the Mcdonalds. I think the Hornets take a step back this year. Losing Pargo will hurt them off the bench.
The Knicks, the Knicks. My hometown Knicks are a mess even before the season starts. We'll see if Dantoni is really as good as people think he is. Chris Duhon the starting point guard? He barely started at Duke. There is a clear distinction between starting point guards and back up point guards in this league. Sometimes teams get away with playing back ups as starters if the rest of their team is great, such as the Jordan Bulls or the Shaq/Kobe Lakers (Fisher is not a real starter as both Golden State and Utah found out) but the Knicks don't have the personnel to disguise Duhon. They have so much dead weight on that team - Curry, Marbury...this isn't a one year rebuilding project, it is more like a three year plan. Nobody remembers how bad Scott Layden was because Isiah Thomas is by far the worst GM in the history of sports.
Best at each position
PG
1. Chris Paul - Steals and already being the #1 guy on his team gives him the edge over Williams.
2. Deron Williams - Becomes Utah's clear leader, needs to take more 3's and play better D.
3. Baron Davis - Too injury prone to be higher, too much talent to be much lower.
4. Steven Nash - You know what you will get with him and has the best jump shot in the league.
5. Jose Calderon - Efficient, will do a great job running a very good surprise Raptors team.
SG
1. Kobe Bryant - Lost a little respect in the Finals when he couldn't take over at will. Also wasn't the best player on the floor at the Olympics most of the time. That honor went to either Wade or James
2. Tracy Mcgrady - Will shine with less pressure on him to perform.
3.Manu Ginobili - A little risky with the injury but had his best year last year and is pretty much unstoppable when he is on.
4. Allen Iverson - Up in years but has always been an underrated passer. Can still score better than most.
5. Kevin Martin - One dimensional scorer is very efficient at that one dimension, needs to develop his passing though to be able to carry a team. At this point is a younger, better version of Michael Redd.
SF
1. Lebron James - Best talent in the game. His physique makes Kobe look like he is still in high school.
2. Carmelo Anthony - Scores so easily, inside, outside, can get 30 on just about anybody without really trying. Doesn't do too much more. Looks like he is happy getting his numbers.
3. Paul Pierce - Showed what he can do in the clutch. Not speedy but gets to the basket when he wants to.
4. Kevin Durant - Will put up big numbers again but needs to average close to 10 boards like he is supposed to. Can't be a one dimensional scorer.
5. Josh Smith - Amazing athlete but little refined skill. Still, he does it all. He is the black Andre Kirilenko. Would love to have this guy running around as my fourth best player on my team.
PF
1. Amare Stoudemire - With Nash passing to him can score almost at will. I love that he doesn't lay the ball up if he can dunk it.
2. Tim Duncan - On the decline but few have proven that they are all around better just yet
3. Kevin Garnett - His decline in numbers meant little for wins.
4. Chris Bosh - Best USA big man this year, has the talent to be at the top next year
5. Dirk Nowitzki - Can take over a game, has proven he can be the man and more versatile than Boozer who would be next on the list.
C
1. Yao Ming - Great shooter and has go to moves to score. No other center has go to moves to score.
2. Dwight Howard - Should be better than Ming soon but needs to work on some moves other than the two hand flush. Looked lost at the Olympics.
3. Andrew Bogut - Getting better each year and who else is going to score for the Bucks?
4. Mehmet Okur - Sadly, even though he plays no defense, he makes this list as he can score better than most and is a underrated rebounder.
5. Greg Oden - Will eventually move up but as a rookie I would like to see him stay healthy and average 12-10- and 2 blocks. He wont be the superstar that most people predict but he will contribute to a winning team.
Friday, October 24, 2008
Western Conference notes on the new season
The upcoming season is just a couple days away and I wanted to write about some of the stories to follow for the upcoming year.
Andrew Bynum and the Lakers - When was the last time that a young "project" center became the player that people thought he would be? Think about all of the big men projects drafted in the last couple of years in the first round of the draft and if you did the draft over again, would you take that player? Just off the top of my head Jermaine O'neal comes to mind who Portland drafted and gave up on and Al Jefferson looks like he might be a star. Lakers fans and the media are so high on Bynum you thought he was 20 and 10 last year before he was injured but looking at his numbers he was 13-10, which is very good for a young player but where is that headed? Watching him move, he moves pretty well for a big man but he doesn't have the scoring ability of Jefferson and he doesn't have the dexterity of O'neal, nor the tenacity. You wonder about his heart, but he is young and certainly you can 't give up on a guy that is that big and young. The problem is that fans are expecting him to put up Kareem numbers and they should be happy if he puts up 12-10 this year and not mess up the front court balance.
The Rockets - First off I don't see Artest being a problem on this team whatsoever. The team was good without him and it isn't depending on him to be the main guy or even the second guy. How did Houston get this guy for almost nothing? It seems like Houston every year makes a move that fills a major hole in the team. Artest brings them amazing toughness, a toughness that Yao and Mcgrady never will have. I don't think that you can learn it as an adult. It is something that you are raised with and Artest definitely has it. Battier, Artest and even Mcgrady when he wants to be are very good defenders on the perimeter. Yao is a liability in the middle but otherwise the team rebounds well, with Scola, Yao, Landry and Hayes all very good rebounders. Scola is crafty - can you use the word crafty for someone that isn't white or approaching 40? - I really like him a lot, he scores when he needs to and does all of the things that a team needs without the numbers. He is just a really smart player and a great compliment to Yao. You have to love Landry off the bench, he provides tremendous energy and should take almost all of Hayes' minutes. I even like Luther Head as a three point specialist. The question has always been Alston, but he looked very good the second half of last year. Look for Yao to garner some MVP talk this next year with a winning team.
The decline of the Suns, Mavericks and the Spurs - The three teams that have dominated the league the last couple of years are on the decline with aging players and not having done enough to revamp with youngsters. They are still playoff teams but not championship contenders. The Suns with the Shaq move have gained on a television personality more than a basketball player. Steve Nash will be good but his best years are well behind him and he wont be one of the top 5 point guards anymore. Jason Kidd might not even be a top 10 point guard by the end of the season. Dirk peaked the year before his MVP season. The Suns and the Mavericks are good enough to win 50 games but winning 50 games only fools fans into thinking that your team has a chance in the playoffs when it really would be better to retool and go young. As for the Spurs, they are a little bit more complicated as Parker is still young and Ginobili had his best year last year but Duncan is showing signs of age. I think that he is a the point where he isn't going to be the dominant low post player he once was. He is heading for the 18-9 type numbers this year and while the team plays great defense, that is the first thing that goes with age. His block numbers are down, his free throw numbers are down, both signs of losing movement. The supporting cast is even worse with Finley, Thomas, and Bowen all over 35 and they didn't have good years last year so you can't expect much this upcoming year.
Greg Oden - My philosophy on big men is that very few are great and then there are some servicible centers and then the rest are awful. Are there any just good centers? Guys that are good but not stars. Yao and Howard are the superstars but who do you have after that? Tyson Chandler, Andrew Bogut, Eddie Curry, Mehmet Okur, Kaman, Biedrens, big Z are all OK players but none of them are more then the third best player on their teams. I think Oden might be different. I don't think that Oden is going to be the best player on a team but I think me could be in a couple of years the second best player on the team. Maybe like Alonzo Mourning, a star but not a superstar. In a couple years 18 and 12 with good defense but not someone you can build your team around. The thing is that Portland has so much talent he could be the fourth best player on Portland in a couple of years.
Andrew Bynum and the Lakers - When was the last time that a young "project" center became the player that people thought he would be? Think about all of the big men projects drafted in the last couple of years in the first round of the draft and if you did the draft over again, would you take that player? Just off the top of my head Jermaine O'neal comes to mind who Portland drafted and gave up on and Al Jefferson looks like he might be a star. Lakers fans and the media are so high on Bynum you thought he was 20 and 10 last year before he was injured but looking at his numbers he was 13-10, which is very good for a young player but where is that headed? Watching him move, he moves pretty well for a big man but he doesn't have the scoring ability of Jefferson and he doesn't have the dexterity of O'neal, nor the tenacity. You wonder about his heart, but he is young and certainly you can 't give up on a guy that is that big and young. The problem is that fans are expecting him to put up Kareem numbers and they should be happy if he puts up 12-10 this year and not mess up the front court balance.
The Rockets - First off I don't see Artest being a problem on this team whatsoever. The team was good without him and it isn't depending on him to be the main guy or even the second guy. How did Houston get this guy for almost nothing? It seems like Houston every year makes a move that fills a major hole in the team. Artest brings them amazing toughness, a toughness that Yao and Mcgrady never will have. I don't think that you can learn it as an adult. It is something that you are raised with and Artest definitely has it. Battier, Artest and even Mcgrady when he wants to be are very good defenders on the perimeter. Yao is a liability in the middle but otherwise the team rebounds well, with Scola, Yao, Landry and Hayes all very good rebounders. Scola is crafty - can you use the word crafty for someone that isn't white or approaching 40? - I really like him a lot, he scores when he needs to and does all of the things that a team needs without the numbers. He is just a really smart player and a great compliment to Yao. You have to love Landry off the bench, he provides tremendous energy and should take almost all of Hayes' minutes. I even like Luther Head as a three point specialist. The question has always been Alston, but he looked very good the second half of last year. Look for Yao to garner some MVP talk this next year with a winning team.
The decline of the Suns, Mavericks and the Spurs - The three teams that have dominated the league the last couple of years are on the decline with aging players and not having done enough to revamp with youngsters. They are still playoff teams but not championship contenders. The Suns with the Shaq move have gained on a television personality more than a basketball player. Steve Nash will be good but his best years are well behind him and he wont be one of the top 5 point guards anymore. Jason Kidd might not even be a top 10 point guard by the end of the season. Dirk peaked the year before his MVP season. The Suns and the Mavericks are good enough to win 50 games but winning 50 games only fools fans into thinking that your team has a chance in the playoffs when it really would be better to retool and go young. As for the Spurs, they are a little bit more complicated as Parker is still young and Ginobili had his best year last year but Duncan is showing signs of age. I think that he is a the point where he isn't going to be the dominant low post player he once was. He is heading for the 18-9 type numbers this year and while the team plays great defense, that is the first thing that goes with age. His block numbers are down, his free throw numbers are down, both signs of losing movement. The supporting cast is even worse with Finley, Thomas, and Bowen all over 35 and they didn't have good years last year so you can't expect much this upcoming year.
Greg Oden - My philosophy on big men is that very few are great and then there are some servicible centers and then the rest are awful. Are there any just good centers? Guys that are good but not stars. Yao and Howard are the superstars but who do you have after that? Tyson Chandler, Andrew Bogut, Eddie Curry, Mehmet Okur, Kaman, Biedrens, big Z are all OK players but none of them are more then the third best player on their teams. I think Oden might be different. I don't think that Oden is going to be the best player on a team but I think me could be in a couple of years the second best player on the team. Maybe like Alonzo Mourning, a star but not a superstar. In a couple years 18 and 12 with good defense but not someone you can build your team around. The thing is that Portland has so much talent he could be the fourth best player on Portland in a couple of years.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Utah Jazz 08-09 season preview
This will be my first post in what I hope to make a regular blog about the the Utah Jazz, the NBA and I reserve the right to get crazy and throw in a piece or two about life outside the basketball world. Today I will start with my season preview for the upcoming 08-09 season for the Jazz.
This is an exciting year for the Jazz as 06-07 was a breakthrough playoff year and last year was the more realistic growth year. Teams tend to build on the previous year's success until a team peaks and then falls apart. Of course there are teams that just come out of nowhere - the 98-99 Knicks come to mind - but history tends to favor the team that gets past a new obstacle every year till they reach their goal or just don't have enough to get any further. Most teams fall in the latter category - the turn of the century Kings, the Utah Jazz of the 90's, Seattle of the 90's and countless other teams that get better every year but can't get past the last hurdle to make them world champs, not that being conference champions isn't great, or that winning a division isn't great but nowadays the only thing that seems to matter is if you take your team and win the title and while I don't agree with that being the only measure of success, I don't make the rules.
There are a lot of reasons to feel positive about this Jazz team. Last year they lost to the Lakers but weren't overwhelmed by them. You got the feeling that after playing them that the Jazz felt like they just needed to get their act together and that they could beat this team. The Lakers are still the team to beat in the West and the Jazz are probably the second best team in the West as they bring back a lot of experience. The same guys playing together for three to four years now builds unity and understanding that a team needs to get far in the playoffs.
1. Williams the unquestioned leader of the team - With his new contract this past year, his playoff performance in the last 2 years, playing with the Olympic team, having the trust of coach Sloan and his continued improvement each year, this will be the year that he becomes a true superstar and the "man" on the team. You could say that he has always been the man but his first year he was got limited minutes, two years ago he was the new kid on the big stage and last year Carlos Boozer really overshadowed him, especially with the great start that he got last year. As Boozer faded in the playoffs and Williams continued to play his best with pressure, he became the guy that the fans knew they could rely on in big moments, a lot like they knew that the team could turn to Stockton and that Malone was going to disappear in the fourth quarter. Expect even more from Williams this year. 20 and 12 and better defense playing nearly 40 minutes a game. Every good team needs to know its hierarchy to keep people in their roles. Williams is the clear leader.
2.Kirilenko as the sixth man. I'm surprised that they didn't go with this last year. AK plays his best when he feels that he is needed and plays his worst someone else can do his job. As the sixth man, he will be the best player on the floor with the second unit. AK has had problems playing with the first unit for a lot of reasons. Boozer is better down low and so is Okur so that leaves AK spotting up outside which isn't his game. I think you might see Shawn Marion drop in stats too if Beasley gets his minutes near the basket and Marion ends up floating on the outside. I always got the perception that Williams doesn't trust AK, that he doesn't like passing to him. There are lots of instances that I notice that AK is open on a fast break and Williams will purposely not pass to him and look for Boozer who is trailing the play. Williams trusts Boozer. He trusts Okur shooting 3s. He trusts Brewer on a cut. He even trust Hapring coming around a cut but needs to start to trust that Kirilenko isn't going to lauch a wild 3 and that he will make a good decision.
On the second unit, he would be the best passer, the second best rebounder, the best scorer, the best defender and so will make him want to be active. AK does well when people have confidence in him. He needs to play PF more and be near the basket blocking shots on defense and getting put backs on offense. I'm expecting him to be back to near his old numbers of 14 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 blocks and 1.5 steals.
3.Shut down defender. The Jazz need both an interior defender and a perimeter defender but if I were to pick between the two, I would say that they need a shut down wing defender more than the other. They have been destroyed by guys who put it on the floor and get the rim without any problems and it is usually the opponent's shooting guard. Lots of big games against the Jazz for opposing SGs. Bryant, Mcgrady, and Ginobili for example during the past couple of playoff series have basically ran around their defender and get to the basket only to get fouled again and again. Ray Allen and Michael Redd have had 50 pt games against the Jazz. I've always thought a guy like a Ron Artest - while not perfect for the Jazz - would do amazing things for their biggest hole on defense. Brewer is quick and gets steals and is young but I'm not sure if he is ever going to be a shut down defender. You have to have a certain mentality, an attitude that very few people have in the league, but most championship teams have one guy that can guard the other team's best player on the outside. The Spurs happen to have both in Duncan and Bowen.
KG this year really showed how much a team defensive attitude means to winning. Just looking at Boozer and KG's offensive stats, there wasn't that much difference, in fact, Boozer is probably the better scorer of the two and at this point the better rebounder but what they add to they team is incomparable. Boozer almost plays no defense. I would like to see how opposing PF's do against Boozer. He might give the Jazz 20-10 but he might give up 18-10 every night. Okur tries sometimes but then the other half the time is very happy to play matador and just watch the other guy score. I think playing AK more at the PF would be worse for scoring but better for team defense and overall wins in the playoffs. Milsap should find some more minutes as he plays very good defense for an undersized guy. In the end, the thing that keeps the Jazz from moving on in the playoffs is lack of defensive toughness. Can they get a stop when they need one in the closing minutes? I have confidence that they can get a score when they need to but when it comes down to stopping someone like Kobe or Ginobili, I can hear the referee's whistle blowing already.
4. Brewer getting better. I understand why the Jazz resigned CJ Miles as they feel like he has talent and don't want him to go to another team and blossom, similar to Mo Williams, but I don't know where he is going to get minutes on this team. Even if he plays well, I can't see more than 15-20 minutes a game and those minutes can easily be distributed between Korver, Harpring, AK and Brewer. The biggest issue is that Brewer is going to need more minutes this year. He is guy that needs no plays run for him, is moving all the time and scores off of put backs and back cuts and is the team's best finisher on the break. Look for him to play 30 or more minutes a game as his defense improves. He will need to be out there to guard opposing SGs. I can see him easily averaging a very efficient 15 ppg, 2 steals, 3 rebounds, 3 assists without a single play being called for him. Korver demands time as the best shooter on this team and even with Harpring phasing out due to injury and age, AK will play starters minutes and CJ is going to be on the short end unless he becomes a shut down defender, which I don't see in the near future. I think they should showcase him for a couple of weeks and trade him, along with Almond for future picks.
5. The center spot. Okur played well at the end of the year and I don't mind Okur jacking up threes at the end of the game as he has proven to be clutch but the Jazz will never make it to the finals with both Okur and Boozer being strictly offensive minded. I don't see either Fesenko or Koufos contributing more than 5-10 minutes a game this year and Collins is probably the worst player in the NBA and I'm not quite sure how he still finds work. Even if they had picked up an old guy like Theo Ratliff, it would have vastly improved the defense up the middle.
The Jazz don't have a lot of competition in their division just yet and so I expect them to win a third straight division crown but I wouldn't be surprised if they ended up the fourth seed behind the Lakers, Hornets and Rockets or Spurs. On the other hand I can also see them winning the West and getting the first seed in a tight race. The best playoff scenario would be getting to the Western Conference finals again and meeting a team that they could beat like the Hornets or the Rockets, which in this deep conference is very possible. I'm not sure if the Jazz could beat the Spurs in a seven game series. The Lakers would be a better match up but Kobe going to the line gives them an edge. Prediction 55-27 First in division, second in conference. Loss to the Lakers in the Western Conference finals.
This is an exciting year for the Jazz as 06-07 was a breakthrough playoff year and last year was the more realistic growth year. Teams tend to build on the previous year's success until a team peaks and then falls apart. Of course there are teams that just come out of nowhere - the 98-99 Knicks come to mind - but history tends to favor the team that gets past a new obstacle every year till they reach their goal or just don't have enough to get any further. Most teams fall in the latter category - the turn of the century Kings, the Utah Jazz of the 90's, Seattle of the 90's and countless other teams that get better every year but can't get past the last hurdle to make them world champs, not that being conference champions isn't great, or that winning a division isn't great but nowadays the only thing that seems to matter is if you take your team and win the title and while I don't agree with that being the only measure of success, I don't make the rules.
There are a lot of reasons to feel positive about this Jazz team. Last year they lost to the Lakers but weren't overwhelmed by them. You got the feeling that after playing them that the Jazz felt like they just needed to get their act together and that they could beat this team. The Lakers are still the team to beat in the West and the Jazz are probably the second best team in the West as they bring back a lot of experience. The same guys playing together for three to four years now builds unity and understanding that a team needs to get far in the playoffs.
1. Williams the unquestioned leader of the team - With his new contract this past year, his playoff performance in the last 2 years, playing with the Olympic team, having the trust of coach Sloan and his continued improvement each year, this will be the year that he becomes a true superstar and the "man" on the team. You could say that he has always been the man but his first year he was got limited minutes, two years ago he was the new kid on the big stage and last year Carlos Boozer really overshadowed him, especially with the great start that he got last year. As Boozer faded in the playoffs and Williams continued to play his best with pressure, he became the guy that the fans knew they could rely on in big moments, a lot like they knew that the team could turn to Stockton and that Malone was going to disappear in the fourth quarter. Expect even more from Williams this year. 20 and 12 and better defense playing nearly 40 minutes a game. Every good team needs to know its hierarchy to keep people in their roles. Williams is the clear leader.
2.Kirilenko as the sixth man. I'm surprised that they didn't go with this last year. AK plays his best when he feels that he is needed and plays his worst someone else can do his job. As the sixth man, he will be the best player on the floor with the second unit. AK has had problems playing with the first unit for a lot of reasons. Boozer is better down low and so is Okur so that leaves AK spotting up outside which isn't his game. I think you might see Shawn Marion drop in stats too if Beasley gets his minutes near the basket and Marion ends up floating on the outside. I always got the perception that Williams doesn't trust AK, that he doesn't like passing to him. There are lots of instances that I notice that AK is open on a fast break and Williams will purposely not pass to him and look for Boozer who is trailing the play. Williams trusts Boozer. He trusts Okur shooting 3s. He trusts Brewer on a cut. He even trust Hapring coming around a cut but needs to start to trust that Kirilenko isn't going to lauch a wild 3 and that he will make a good decision.
On the second unit, he would be the best passer, the second best rebounder, the best scorer, the best defender and so will make him want to be active. AK does well when people have confidence in him. He needs to play PF more and be near the basket blocking shots on defense and getting put backs on offense. I'm expecting him to be back to near his old numbers of 14 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 blocks and 1.5 steals.
3.Shut down defender. The Jazz need both an interior defender and a perimeter defender but if I were to pick between the two, I would say that they need a shut down wing defender more than the other. They have been destroyed by guys who put it on the floor and get the rim without any problems and it is usually the opponent's shooting guard. Lots of big games against the Jazz for opposing SGs. Bryant, Mcgrady, and Ginobili for example during the past couple of playoff series have basically ran around their defender and get to the basket only to get fouled again and again. Ray Allen and Michael Redd have had 50 pt games against the Jazz. I've always thought a guy like a Ron Artest - while not perfect for the Jazz - would do amazing things for their biggest hole on defense. Brewer is quick and gets steals and is young but I'm not sure if he is ever going to be a shut down defender. You have to have a certain mentality, an attitude that very few people have in the league, but most championship teams have one guy that can guard the other team's best player on the outside. The Spurs happen to have both in Duncan and Bowen.
KG this year really showed how much a team defensive attitude means to winning. Just looking at Boozer and KG's offensive stats, there wasn't that much difference, in fact, Boozer is probably the better scorer of the two and at this point the better rebounder but what they add to they team is incomparable. Boozer almost plays no defense. I would like to see how opposing PF's do against Boozer. He might give the Jazz 20-10 but he might give up 18-10 every night. Okur tries sometimes but then the other half the time is very happy to play matador and just watch the other guy score. I think playing AK more at the PF would be worse for scoring but better for team defense and overall wins in the playoffs. Milsap should find some more minutes as he plays very good defense for an undersized guy. In the end, the thing that keeps the Jazz from moving on in the playoffs is lack of defensive toughness. Can they get a stop when they need one in the closing minutes? I have confidence that they can get a score when they need to but when it comes down to stopping someone like Kobe or Ginobili, I can hear the referee's whistle blowing already.
4. Brewer getting better. I understand why the Jazz resigned CJ Miles as they feel like he has talent and don't want him to go to another team and blossom, similar to Mo Williams, but I don't know where he is going to get minutes on this team. Even if he plays well, I can't see more than 15-20 minutes a game and those minutes can easily be distributed between Korver, Harpring, AK and Brewer. The biggest issue is that Brewer is going to need more minutes this year. He is guy that needs no plays run for him, is moving all the time and scores off of put backs and back cuts and is the team's best finisher on the break. Look for him to play 30 or more minutes a game as his defense improves. He will need to be out there to guard opposing SGs. I can see him easily averaging a very efficient 15 ppg, 2 steals, 3 rebounds, 3 assists without a single play being called for him. Korver demands time as the best shooter on this team and even with Harpring phasing out due to injury and age, AK will play starters minutes and CJ is going to be on the short end unless he becomes a shut down defender, which I don't see in the near future. I think they should showcase him for a couple of weeks and trade him, along with Almond for future picks.
5. The center spot. Okur played well at the end of the year and I don't mind Okur jacking up threes at the end of the game as he has proven to be clutch but the Jazz will never make it to the finals with both Okur and Boozer being strictly offensive minded. I don't see either Fesenko or Koufos contributing more than 5-10 minutes a game this year and Collins is probably the worst player in the NBA and I'm not quite sure how he still finds work. Even if they had picked up an old guy like Theo Ratliff, it would have vastly improved the defense up the middle.
The Jazz don't have a lot of competition in their division just yet and so I expect them to win a third straight division crown but I wouldn't be surprised if they ended up the fourth seed behind the Lakers, Hornets and Rockets or Spurs. On the other hand I can also see them winning the West and getting the first seed in a tight race. The best playoff scenario would be getting to the Western Conference finals again and meeting a team that they could beat like the Hornets or the Rockets, which in this deep conference is very possible. I'm not sure if the Jazz could beat the Spurs in a seven game series. The Lakers would be a better match up but Kobe going to the line gives them an edge. Prediction 55-27 First in division, second in conference. Loss to the Lakers in the Western Conference finals.
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