Utah Jazz 08-09 season preview

This will be my first post in what I hope to make a regular blog about the the Utah Jazz, the NBA and I reserve the right to get crazy and throw in a piece or two about life outside the basketball world. Today I will start with my season preview for the upcoming 08-09 season for the Jazz.

This is an exciting year for the Jazz as 06-07 was a breakthrough playoff year and last year was the more realistic growth year. Teams tend to build on the previous year's success until a team peaks and then falls apart. Of course there are teams that just come out of nowhere - the 98-99 Knicks come to mind - but history tends to favor the team that gets past a new obstacle every year till they reach their goal or just don't have enough to get any further. Most teams fall in the latter category - the turn of the century Kings, the Utah Jazz of the 90's, Seattle of the 90's and countless other teams that get better every year but can't get past the last hurdle to make them world champs, not that being conference champions isn't great, or that winning a division isn't great but nowadays the only thing that seems to matter is if you take your team and win the title and while I don't agree with that being the only measure of success, I don't make the rules.

There are a lot of reasons to feel positive about this Jazz team. Last year they lost to the Lakers but weren't overwhelmed by them. You got the feeling that after playing them that the Jazz felt like they just needed to get their act together and that they could beat this team. The Lakers are still the team to beat in the West and the Jazz are probably the second best team in the West as they bring back a lot of experience. The same guys playing together for three to four years now builds unity and understanding that a team needs to get far in the playoffs.

1. Williams the unquestioned leader of the team - With his new contract this past year, his playoff performance in the last 2 years, playing with the Olympic team, having the trust of coach Sloan and his continued improvement each year, this will be the year that he becomes a true superstar and the "man" on the team. You could say that he has always been the man but his first year he was got limited minutes, two years ago he was the new kid on the big stage and last year Carlos Boozer really overshadowed him, especially with the great start that he got last year. As Boozer faded in the playoffs and Williams continued to play his best with pressure, he became the guy that the fans knew they could rely on in big moments, a lot like they knew that the team could turn to Stockton and that Malone was going to disappear in the fourth quarter. Expect even more from Williams this year. 20 and 12 and better defense playing nearly 40 minutes a game. Every good team needs to know its hierarchy to keep people in their roles. Williams is the clear leader.

2.Kirilenko as the sixth man. I'm surprised that they didn't go with this last year. AK plays his best when he feels that he is needed and plays his worst someone else can do his job. As the sixth man, he will be the best player on the floor with the second unit. AK has had problems playing with the first unit for a lot of reasons. Boozer is better down low and so is Okur so that leaves AK spotting up outside which isn't his game. I think you might see Shawn Marion drop in stats too if Beasley gets his minutes near the basket and Marion ends up floating on the outside. I always got the perception that Williams doesn't trust AK, that he doesn't like passing to him. There are lots of instances that I notice that AK is open on a fast break and Williams will purposely not pass to him and look for Boozer who is trailing the play. Williams trusts Boozer. He trusts Okur shooting 3s. He trusts Brewer on a cut. He even trust Hapring coming around a cut but needs to start to trust that Kirilenko isn't going to lauch a wild 3 and that he will make a good decision.
On the second unit, he would be the best passer, the second best rebounder, the best scorer, the best defender and so will make him want to be active. AK does well when people have confidence in him. He needs to play PF more and be near the basket blocking shots on defense and getting put backs on offense. I'm expecting him to be back to near his old numbers of 14 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 blocks and 1.5 steals.

3.Shut down defender. The Jazz need both an interior defender and a perimeter defender but if I were to pick between the two, I would say that they need a shut down wing defender more than the other. They have been destroyed by guys who put it on the floor and get the rim without any problems and it is usually the opponent's shooting guard. Lots of big games against the Jazz for opposing SGs. Bryant, Mcgrady, and Ginobili for example during the past couple of playoff series have basically ran around their defender and get to the basket only to get fouled again and again. Ray Allen and Michael Redd have had 50 pt games against the Jazz. I've always thought a guy like a Ron Artest - while not perfect for the Jazz - would do amazing things for their biggest hole on defense. Brewer is quick and gets steals and is young but I'm not sure if he is ever going to be a shut down defender. You have to have a certain mentality, an attitude that very few people have in the league, but most championship teams have one guy that can guard the other team's best player on the outside. The Spurs happen to have both in Duncan and Bowen.
KG this year really showed how much a team defensive attitude means to winning. Just looking at Boozer and KG's offensive stats, there wasn't that much difference, in fact, Boozer is probably the better scorer of the two and at this point the better rebounder but what they add to they team is incomparable. Boozer almost plays no defense. I would like to see how opposing PF's do against Boozer. He might give the Jazz 20-10 but he might give up 18-10 every night. Okur tries sometimes but then the other half the time is very happy to play matador and just watch the other guy score. I think playing AK more at the PF would be worse for scoring but better for team defense and overall wins in the playoffs. Milsap should find some more minutes as he plays very good defense for an undersized guy. In the end, the thing that keeps the Jazz from moving on in the playoffs is lack of defensive toughness. Can they get a stop when they need one in the closing minutes? I have confidence that they can get a score when they need to but when it comes down to stopping someone like Kobe or Ginobili, I can hear the referee's whistle blowing already.

4. Brewer getting better. I understand why the Jazz resigned CJ Miles as they feel like he has talent and don't want him to go to another team and blossom, similar to Mo Williams, but I don't know where he is going to get minutes on this team. Even if he plays well, I can't see more than 15-20 minutes a game and those minutes can easily be distributed between Korver, Harpring, AK and Brewer. The biggest issue is that Brewer is going to need more minutes this year. He is guy that needs no plays run for him, is moving all the time and scores off of put backs and back cuts and is the team's best finisher on the break. Look for him to play 30 or more minutes a game as his defense improves. He will need to be out there to guard opposing SGs. I can see him easily averaging a very efficient 15 ppg, 2 steals, 3 rebounds, 3 assists without a single play being called for him. Korver demands time as the best shooter on this team and even with Harpring phasing out due to injury and age, AK will play starters minutes and CJ is going to be on the short end unless he becomes a shut down defender, which I don't see in the near future. I think they should showcase him for a couple of weeks and trade him, along with Almond for future picks.

5. The center spot. Okur played well at the end of the year and I don't mind Okur jacking up threes at the end of the game as he has proven to be clutch but the Jazz will never make it to the finals with both Okur and Boozer being strictly offensive minded. I don't see either Fesenko or Koufos contributing more than 5-10 minutes a game this year and Collins is probably the worst player in the NBA and I'm not quite sure how he still finds work. Even if they had picked up an old guy like Theo Ratliff, it would have vastly improved the defense up the middle.

The Jazz don't have a lot of competition in their division just yet and so I expect them to win a third straight division crown but I wouldn't be surprised if they ended up the fourth seed behind the Lakers, Hornets and Rockets or Spurs. On the other hand I can also see them winning the West and getting the first seed in a tight race. The best playoff scenario would be getting to the Western Conference finals again and meeting a team that they could beat like the Hornets or the Rockets, which in this deep conference is very possible. I'm not sure if the Jazz could beat the Spurs in a seven game series. The Lakers would be a better match up but Kobe going to the line gives them an edge. Prediction 55-27 First in division, second in conference. Loss to the Lakers in the Western Conference finals.