Predictions for the New Year

So some random picks and predictions

ROY - Greg Oden. I would pick Beasley if he was on a team without a star like Durant last year. He could jack up 20 shots a game and get his numbers but he wont get as many touches with Wade fully healed and Marion looking to prove himself. Oden wont see many touches either but that actually helps him. He can concentrate on rebounds and good defense. If he averages 12 points on put backs, 10 boards and 2 blocks, he will win the ROY. Others in the mix - Beasley, OJ Mayo. Surprises: Chris Douglas-Roberts and Joey Dorsey. Busts: Both Lopez Twins. The Collins twins are about the retire so these guys can take their place.

MVP - Lebron James. Voters like surprises and winning teams. The MVP doesn't usually go to the best player but usually the best player on a contending team or a player that is playing a level above his previous level on a winning team, but not the best player in the league. Lebron James can play exactly the same as last year and win the MVP simply because Mo Williams is on the team now and they will finish near the top of the East. I don't expect him to put up better numbers than last year's phenomenal 30-7-7 but the team will win more games. Kobe won his MVP and so voters are looking for a someone new. Chris Paul became the new blood last year and is a lock for the MVP if his team wins the West, even if he Deron Williams has a better year. Look for Yao Ming as the dark horse to win the MVP as his Rockets will win their division and be near the top of the West. The Media would love to give it to Yao - he is a great guy and he would fit international image of the NBA that everybody wants to promote.

Random notes
I'm not sold on the Hornets. The Hornets are the Jazz of last year. They were the surprise regular season team that played well in the playoffs. No one had any expectations for them so any success was a bonus. They add Posey and people are declaring them the next NBA champs. I like Chris Paul. He reminds me of KJ. KJ was great but he couldn't take a team to the finals by himself, he needed Barkley. West and Chandler are nice players but aren't superstars. Stojakovic played well last year but he is well past his prime. Morris Peterson isn't a starter but would be nice to come off the bench for instant offense. Posey is the proverbial final piece for a championship team but I think that the Hornets overpaid for a player only useful when well, you just need that last player. Championship teams nowadays need three stars and the Hornest don't have the star power, or the role players to make them a legit championship team. Speaking of comparisons, Deron Williams reminds me a little of Tim Hardaway. Both are deceptively quick with ridiculous crossovers, good jumpers and could lay off the Mcdonalds. I think the Hornets take a step back this year. Losing Pargo will hurt them off the bench.

The Knicks, the Knicks. My hometown Knicks are a mess even before the season starts. We'll see if Dantoni is really as good as people think he is. Chris Duhon the starting point guard? He barely started at Duke. There is a clear distinction between starting point guards and back up point guards in this league. Sometimes teams get away with playing back ups as starters if the rest of their team is great, such as the Jordan Bulls or the Shaq/Kobe Lakers (Fisher is not a real starter as both Golden State and Utah found out) but the Knicks don't have the personnel to disguise Duhon. They have so much dead weight on that team - Curry, Marbury...this isn't a one year rebuilding project, it is more like a three year plan. Nobody remembers how bad Scott Layden was because Isiah Thomas is by far the worst GM in the history of sports.

Best at each position
PG
1. Chris Paul - Steals and already being the #1 guy on his team gives him the edge over Williams.
2. Deron Williams - Becomes Utah's clear leader, needs to take more 3's and play better D.
3. Baron Davis - Too injury prone to be higher, too much talent to be much lower.
4. Steven Nash - You know what you will get with him and has the best jump shot in the league.
5. Jose Calderon - Efficient, will do a great job running a very good surprise Raptors team.

SG
1. Kobe Bryant - Lost a little respect in the Finals when he couldn't take over at will. Also wasn't the best player on the floor at the Olympics most of the time. That honor went to either Wade or James
2. Tracy Mcgrady - Will shine with less pressure on him to perform.
3.Manu Ginobili - A little risky with the injury but had his best year last year and is pretty much unstoppable when he is on.
4. Allen Iverson - Up in years but has always been an underrated passer. Can still score better than most.
5. Kevin Martin - One dimensional scorer is very efficient at that one dimension, needs to develop his passing though to be able to carry a team. At this point is a younger, better version of Michael Redd.

SF
1. Lebron James - Best talent in the game. His physique makes Kobe look like he is still in high school.
2. Carmelo Anthony - Scores so easily, inside, outside, can get 30 on just about anybody without really trying. Doesn't do too much more. Looks like he is happy getting his numbers.
3. Paul Pierce - Showed what he can do in the clutch. Not speedy but gets to the basket when he wants to.
4. Kevin Durant - Will put up big numbers again but needs to average close to 10 boards like he is supposed to. Can't be a one dimensional scorer.
5. Josh Smith - Amazing athlete but little refined skill. Still, he does it all. He is the black Andre Kirilenko. Would love to have this guy running around as my fourth best player on my team.

PF
1. Amare Stoudemire - With Nash passing to him can score almost at will. I love that he doesn't lay the ball up if he can dunk it.
2. Tim Duncan - On the decline but few have proven that they are all around better just yet
3. Kevin Garnett - His decline in numbers meant little for wins.
4. Chris Bosh - Best USA big man this year, has the talent to be at the top next year
5. Dirk Nowitzki - Can take over a game, has proven he can be the man and more versatile than Boozer who would be next on the list.

C
1. Yao Ming - Great shooter and has go to moves to score. No other center has go to moves to score.
2. Dwight Howard - Should be better than Ming soon but needs to work on some moves other than the two hand flush. Looked lost at the Olympics.
3. Andrew Bogut - Getting better each year and who else is going to score for the Bucks?
4. Mehmet Okur - Sadly, even though he plays no defense, he makes this list as he can score better than most and is a underrated rebounder.
5. Greg Oden - Will eventually move up but as a rookie I would like to see him stay healthy and average 12-10- and 2 blocks. He wont be the superstar that most people predict but he will contribute to a winning team.