The Upside of Injuries.
Ugly teams, uglier game. Ugh. The Jazz were missing half their team but they still should have had enough to beat Charlotte's sorry group. The Jazz lost another tight game in the final 2 minutes. We are going to have to reserve judgement on the Jazz for a couple of months as the team is still transitioning. All of these injuries might have a silver lining for a team that is used to being the model of stability in the NBA. Deron Williams wont be at full strength for at least a month and that gives Ronnie Price time to develop into a point guard. We are finding out how good Brevin Knight is. Harpring being injured has given CJ Miles a little bit more playing time. Even Okur leaving for personal matters has given Kosta Koufos a chance to show what he can do. Better that the Jazz experiment now and find out if their guys can play or if they will need somebody else by the trading deadline. Oh, and Collins being injured means that the team can keep him on the bench for the rest of the year.
Harpring was back for the game so that he can continue to run around like a crazy chicken. I love Harpring's energy but at this point he needs to retire. If they keep him, they can use him as "the enforcer." It would be like hockey where they keep a thuggish brute on the team to come in to beat up on the other teams best player. They can bring him in to pull a Robert Horry and hip check star players into the stands and then get thrown out. What else could he do for the team that would be more valuable?
Kosta Koufos got some minutes tonight and really played well for a rookie. He didn't exactly endear himself to coach Sloan by taking the first two shots of the game. Other than that, he was active, blocked shots and rebounded well enough to warrant some more time. He didn't look like a super mega stiff, just a regular stiff which is pretty good. He reminds me of a taller Kris Humphries. Now only if he learns not to shoot every time he touches the ball.
Ronnie Price had his first good game of the year. He was confident and shot well. CJ Miles didn't have good numbers but he did little things well. He doesn't take wild shots and knows how the offense flows. I can see him getting more of minutes through the year. I was happy to see Williams sitting out today, even if meant the difference between a win and a loss. A healthy Williams makes a difference in the last two games. The Jazz lost tonight's game in the last 2 minutes and that is when Williams is at his best. Williams is the one player on the team that can create his own shot, which is crucial when the offense breaks down. Having Williams play too early and risking injuring his ankle to get a couple of wins is shortsighted. I would keep him out for 2 months if his health depended on it.
Did you see that Boozer dunk at the end of the game?
Michael Jordan and Isiah Thomas, great players, terrible front office personnel.
The road trip facing the NBA minor league ( The Eastern Conference) continued last night against the Charlotte Bobcats. Jordan has only been in charge of this team since the summer of 06 and so you can't blame everything on him, but this is a badly assembled team. Jordan isn't the GM, Rod Higgins is, but Jordan is the owner that has the final say on decisions. 3 drafts and so far the first 2 look drafts look like giant busts.
2006, 3d overall pick - Adam Morrison. Great college player but everyone questioned where he was going to fit in the NBA. For a shooter he isn't that great a shooter, he doesn't rebound and he doesn't pass so he is basically useless. He probably is the biggest bust of the '06 draft. The draft overall wasn't deep but they missed out on Brandon Roy(6), Rudy Gay(8), Ronnie Brewer(14), Rajon Rondo(21), Farmar(26). Contrast that with Portland who had three picks in the same draft and ended up with Lamarcus Aldridge, Brandon Roy and Sergio Rodriguez. Of course, Morrison had a good night against the Jazz while I was writing this.
2007, 8th overall pick- Brandan Wright traded for Jason Richardson. 22d overall- Jared Dudley. Wright is young and athletic if he got some playing time in Golden State he might prove that he can play. I used to like Jason Richardson when he was an exciting dunker. Then he fell in love with the three pointer and now he is an inefficient scorer that has a huge contract. Why would you want to pay this guy 12 million dollars to jack up 3 pointers and not do much else? He is the second best player on a bad team, the third on a good team or the best on this team.
Jared Dudley is a hard working back up that will stick in the league somewhere and not a bad pick for late in the first round.
2008, 9th overall pick - DJ Agustin. 20th overall Alexis Ajinca. DJ had a lot of success at Texas and its too early to tell if he was a good pick. The problem is that they have Raymond Felton, the 5th pick from the Deron Williams/Chris Paul draft, who is still developing as a player. Basically they are giving up on Felton, waiting another 2-3 years for Augustin to develop and letting Felton walk at the end of the year. Point guards other than Paul and Williams take time to develop and it isn't fair to compare Felton to those two. Felton is a talented player that will end up being a starter somewhere else.
I don't know anything about Alexis Ajinca but anyone over 7 feet tall has a 90% chance to being drafted in the first round and a 1% chance of being good.
Signings
Why are all contracts five or six years? Even bad players get six year deals. How many players actually stay on their team for six years? Other than stable teams like the Jazz, players worry about a trade as soon as the ink is dry on their contract. There is nothing that handicaps a team more than bad contracts. Isiah's Knicks are a good example. Actually it started with Scott Layden but Isiah decided he could make it worse. If you have a bad draft, you have another lottery pick the next year. If you sign a dud, you have to pay him for the next six years and he goes against your salary cap thus limiting your free agent signings.
Gerald Wallace - 6 years, about 60 million in 2007. Wallace had been underrated for years until he signed this big contract. Now he is over payed. Would be a great player coming off the bench on a playoff team.
Matt Carroll - 6 years, 27 million in 2007. Why are you going to pay an undrafted 3 point specialist 5 million a year? Is the third member of the overpaid white trio along with Brian Cardinal and Brian Scalabrine. They fulfill the secret NBA clause that forces teams to have a scrubby white guy that the fans can get excited about. The Jazz have a reverse clause that limits them to eight or less black players on the team without paying a fine.
Emeka Okafor - 6 years, about 70 million in 2008. Centers are hard to come by Okafor is an intelligent, hard working guy that plays good defense so I can understand this signing. He was the first pick in Bobcat history and a solid citizen but he is going to be a millstone around the neck of this team. He has back problems and even if he averages 15 and 10 with 3 blocks for six years he still wouldn't justify his contract. The Jazz could use a player like him with a better contract.
Friday, November 14, 2008
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Another Winnable Loss on the Road
The Jazz are 1-2 on this road trip and and while they haven't played very well in any of the games, bad teams gives you a chance to win games and all three of these games were winnable games against bad teams. Philadelphia was the "in" pick this year with the Elton Brand signing but they don't look like the team that closed out last year so well. The Jazz looked like they were going to lose to Philadelphia in the third quarter until the second unit came in and saved them. The Jazz are developing confidence in sending in the bench in key moments of the game, sometimes with none of the starters on the floor. As long as Brewer keeps going to the basket, it is really hard to stop him and his slumps wont last long. It is nice to see players other than Boozer and Williams winning games for the Jazz. Brewer took over last night's game and Milsap won one of the Clipper games. Kirilenko again did a nice job off the bench and the Jazz should have the ball run through him in the high post more often.
I don't see the point of rushing Williams back. By the time the playoffs come around, no one is going to remember this road trip. Why risk injuring his ankle again before it is fully healed for a couple of meaningless early season games? I'm not worried about his weak numbers. In a couple of weeks he will be back where he needs to be and back to his normal self. You can see just from a couple of plays the great connection that he has with Boozer. Boozer knows exactly when to make his cut to the basket on the pic and roll. Williams knows exactly when to send the bounce pass. The amazing thing about Boozer is he doesn't pick up a lot of charges. He is excellent at taking the pass and then changing direction around another defender in front of him and getting an easy lay up. There isn't anyone in the NBA that is better at it than Boozer.
The Washington game was just awful, awful, awful. They looked tired. There was no hustle and they made rookie JaVale McGee look like he drinking Comcast high speed with power boost. He was literally everywhere blocking shots and grabbing rebounds. Does anyone other than Paul Milsap get his shot blocked more often than Carlos Boozer? Boozer has a hard time with taller players with long arms and tonight he was blocked at least three times by McGee and Thomas. Kirilenko looked like the AK of two years ago that stood around and took a Valium before games. Is there a reason that he doesn't even jump for rebounds unless the ball is heading straight to him? There was a time when AK looked had McGee's energy with more skill. I said in a previous post that his numbers are near his old numbers except in a couple of categories...blocks, which is down a good block and a half per game and personal fouls. Kirilenko was in foul trouble all the time before because he was so active. If you are going to get blocks, steals and rebounds you will pick up the occasional over the back or foul on a shooter. He doesn't even try to block half the shots he used to go for a couple of years ago. I wonder if he is just less athletic now that he is getting older.
CJ Miles finally had a nice night. During the course of a game, he has that one play that makes you want to believe that he can be really good. You fall in love with how smooth his jumper looks. He has better shot selection this year. I think its because he knows that he has regular minutes and he doesn't have to come in and jack shots to prove that he can play.
Kosta Koufos didn't look as stiff as most first round white stiffs. He shoots jumpers like a basketball player and he walk around like he has cement blocks on his feet. I already declare that he is better than Collins and take all six of his minutes per game. My hopes aren't high that he will ever be more than a career back up.
Korver hasn't had a big game yet. He hasn't played badly but he really hasn't shot the ball that well. I think that fans are just happy that it is Korver coming around screens and not Girecek ready to catch and then be called for travelling.
NBA notes
Washington was 0-5 until getting their first win against the Jazz tonight and that says a lot about this team. Washington has three legitimate stars if Gilbert Arenas plays, but as good as Arenas is, he is not the type of guy that makes his team better. He is the player that you hate playing with because he shoots every time he touches the ball. You have to give him the ball because he is your best player. Problem is that without him, Jamison and Butler just don't have enough to beat most good teams. I'm increasingly convinced that great teams have stars that are two way players. If you look last year's finals teams, Boston and LA are good examples of stars playing good defense. KG's defense carried this team. Paul Pierce's defense on Kobe was one of the biggest reasons they beat LA. Kobe playing tough D sets the tone for the rest of his team and lets them know that they can't slack off and just play offense. Butler is athletic enough to be a great defender but Jamison and Arenas just aren't defensive minded guys. That is what is going to keep this team from being better even when Arenas comes back.
I like Elton Brand. He is a very solid PF who plays hard every night and also plays very good defense. Surprisingly for a guy who isn't a leaper, he blocks a ton of shots. If I were to choose between Carlos Boozer at 10+ million for one year or Brand at 5 yrs 80 million, I would take Boozer but only due to the bloated contract. Brand is the better overall player and is a good citizen but paying Brand like a 1 when he is best suited as a 2 will mean salary cap problems. When I mean 1, I mean a franchise player. 2 meaning the second star on the team. Can you imagine a championship team with Brand as your best player? I can understand what Philadelphia did by overpaying for him with a nice season last year. They probably felt that getting someone like Brand would make them a title contender. They should be able to compete but Brand is a 2, Igualdola is a 3 and so is Miller. Thaddeus Young looks like he is going to be pretty good but are they going to have the money to pay him? Iguadola just signed a new deal, Dalembert is making 11 million a year and Andre Miller is also making 10 million. If they plan on not resigning Miller this next year, Philadelphia will see that Miller was the reason for last year's success.
Next game for the Jazz is against Charlotte and the best chance for a win.
I don't see the point of rushing Williams back. By the time the playoffs come around, no one is going to remember this road trip. Why risk injuring his ankle again before it is fully healed for a couple of meaningless early season games? I'm not worried about his weak numbers. In a couple of weeks he will be back where he needs to be and back to his normal self. You can see just from a couple of plays the great connection that he has with Boozer. Boozer knows exactly when to make his cut to the basket on the pic and roll. Williams knows exactly when to send the bounce pass. The amazing thing about Boozer is he doesn't pick up a lot of charges. He is excellent at taking the pass and then changing direction around another defender in front of him and getting an easy lay up. There isn't anyone in the NBA that is better at it than Boozer.
The Washington game was just awful, awful, awful. They looked tired. There was no hustle and they made rookie JaVale McGee look like he drinking Comcast high speed with power boost. He was literally everywhere blocking shots and grabbing rebounds. Does anyone other than Paul Milsap get his shot blocked more often than Carlos Boozer? Boozer has a hard time with taller players with long arms and tonight he was blocked at least three times by McGee and Thomas. Kirilenko looked like the AK of two years ago that stood around and took a Valium before games. Is there a reason that he doesn't even jump for rebounds unless the ball is heading straight to him? There was a time when AK looked had McGee's energy with more skill. I said in a previous post that his numbers are near his old numbers except in a couple of categories...blocks, which is down a good block and a half per game and personal fouls. Kirilenko was in foul trouble all the time before because he was so active. If you are going to get blocks, steals and rebounds you will pick up the occasional over the back or foul on a shooter. He doesn't even try to block half the shots he used to go for a couple of years ago. I wonder if he is just less athletic now that he is getting older.
CJ Miles finally had a nice night. During the course of a game, he has that one play that makes you want to believe that he can be really good. You fall in love with how smooth his jumper looks. He has better shot selection this year. I think its because he knows that he has regular minutes and he doesn't have to come in and jack shots to prove that he can play.
Kosta Koufos didn't look as stiff as most first round white stiffs. He shoots jumpers like a basketball player and he walk around like he has cement blocks on his feet. I already declare that he is better than Collins and take all six of his minutes per game. My hopes aren't high that he will ever be more than a career back up.
Korver hasn't had a big game yet. He hasn't played badly but he really hasn't shot the ball that well. I think that fans are just happy that it is Korver coming around screens and not Girecek ready to catch and then be called for travelling.
NBA notes
Washington was 0-5 until getting their first win against the Jazz tonight and that says a lot about this team. Washington has three legitimate stars if Gilbert Arenas plays, but as good as Arenas is, he is not the type of guy that makes his team better. He is the player that you hate playing with because he shoots every time he touches the ball. You have to give him the ball because he is your best player. Problem is that without him, Jamison and Butler just don't have enough to beat most good teams. I'm increasingly convinced that great teams have stars that are two way players. If you look last year's finals teams, Boston and LA are good examples of stars playing good defense. KG's defense carried this team. Paul Pierce's defense on Kobe was one of the biggest reasons they beat LA. Kobe playing tough D sets the tone for the rest of his team and lets them know that they can't slack off and just play offense. Butler is athletic enough to be a great defender but Jamison and Arenas just aren't defensive minded guys. That is what is going to keep this team from being better even when Arenas comes back.
I like Elton Brand. He is a very solid PF who plays hard every night and also plays very good defense. Surprisingly for a guy who isn't a leaper, he blocks a ton of shots. If I were to choose between Carlos Boozer at 10+ million for one year or Brand at 5 yrs 80 million, I would take Boozer but only due to the bloated contract. Brand is the better overall player and is a good citizen but paying Brand like a 1 when he is best suited as a 2 will mean salary cap problems. When I mean 1, I mean a franchise player. 2 meaning the second star on the team. Can you imagine a championship team with Brand as your best player? I can understand what Philadelphia did by overpaying for him with a nice season last year. They probably felt that getting someone like Brand would make them a title contender. They should be able to compete but Brand is a 2, Igualdola is a 3 and so is Miller. Thaddeus Young looks like he is going to be pretty good but are they going to have the money to pay him? Iguadola just signed a new deal, Dalembert is making 11 million a year and Andre Miller is also making 10 million. If they plan on not resigning Miller this next year, Philadelphia will see that Miller was the reason for last year's success.
Next game for the Jazz is against Charlotte and the best chance for a win.
Monday, November 10, 2008
The Road Woes Begin
Turnovers
Was there much expectation of a win in NYC? With the Knicks playing reasonably well and the Jazz on the road, they didn't have much of a chance but it was a poor effort for a first game on a road trip. There were too many turnovers yesterday which is reminiscent of last year's games. The Jazz have never been particularly good in the turnover department, but the numbers are actually a little deceiving. The Jazz use an offense involving a lot of cutting and passing and it leads to more assists. They were 2d to the Suns last year in assists per game. They were in the middle of the pack in turnovers per game. Their assist to turnover ratio as a team ranked fifth last year. It makes sense as more assists means more passes. More passes would naturally mean more turnovers. More assists also means a higher shooting percentage, which the Jazz are always near the top. Of note, the teams with better A/T ratios were all teams with solid offensive systems lead by efficient point guards. New Orleans, Phoenix, Detriot and the surprisingly efficient Raptors run by Jose Calderon. In reality, the Jazz could always take care of the ball better and Andre Kirilenko could also throw less passes through three defenders but the Jazz should be praised for their overall ability to take care of the ball.
Addition by Subtraction
Take away 30 million in contracts from one of the worst teams in the NBA and what do you get? A winning team. Dantoni is either crazy or a genius but his sitting of Marbury and Curry is working miracles so far. The Knicks always had talent but never seemed to be able to work well together on the court. This is probably more of a testament to Dantoni's coaching ability and his commitment to a system than proof for Marbury's detractors. It also speaks to the Larry Brown's inability to adapt to his players and Isiah Thomas' complete coaching ineptitude. The team's talent is in offense. Eddy Curry, Zach Randolph, Marbury, Richardson, Crawford, Robinson are offensive players not known for their defense. What Dantoni does is he stops trying to jam square pegs in round holes and just cuts the holes into squares. Genius. What I don't agree with is sitting Marbury. He would run an uptempo team very well and even if you didn't plan to keep him, you could showcase him for 2 months and then trade him after he regains his value. Now the Knicks are going to have to eat his contract, not that they have problem with eating contracts. Duhon is not a starting point guard in this league. Its like the Charlie Ward days all over again. You might get excited if he plays well for one or two games but the next game is going to be a dud. The malady of franchise point guards that lose favor with their coach, lose their confidence and then lose all value should be named Stevie Franchise syndrome. I can't think of 2 players as talented that have diminished so quickly without a physical ailment or substance abuse.
If this Wilson Chandler thing works out, then Dantoni needs to called Einstein, or maybe Michelangelo for his Italian roots and ushering in the Knick renaissance. David Lee is a good, solid, energy PF who does all the dirty work that a team needs. Wilson Chandler is a shorter, less talented version of David Lee. I don't think the Knicks should overpay for David Lee but not playing him isn't going to decrease his market value or help the team.
Was there much expectation of a win in NYC? With the Knicks playing reasonably well and the Jazz on the road, they didn't have much of a chance but it was a poor effort for a first game on a road trip. There were too many turnovers yesterday which is reminiscent of last year's games. The Jazz have never been particularly good in the turnover department, but the numbers are actually a little deceiving. The Jazz use an offense involving a lot of cutting and passing and it leads to more assists. They were 2d to the Suns last year in assists per game. They were in the middle of the pack in turnovers per game. Their assist to turnover ratio as a team ranked fifth last year. It makes sense as more assists means more passes. More passes would naturally mean more turnovers. More assists also means a higher shooting percentage, which the Jazz are always near the top. Of note, the teams with better A/T ratios were all teams with solid offensive systems lead by efficient point guards. New Orleans, Phoenix, Detriot and the surprisingly efficient Raptors run by Jose Calderon. In reality, the Jazz could always take care of the ball better and Andre Kirilenko could also throw less passes through three defenders but the Jazz should be praised for their overall ability to take care of the ball.
Addition by Subtraction
Take away 30 million in contracts from one of the worst teams in the NBA and what do you get? A winning team. Dantoni is either crazy or a genius but his sitting of Marbury and Curry is working miracles so far. The Knicks always had talent but never seemed to be able to work well together on the court. This is probably more of a testament to Dantoni's coaching ability and his commitment to a system than proof for Marbury's detractors. It also speaks to the Larry Brown's inability to adapt to his players and Isiah Thomas' complete coaching ineptitude. The team's talent is in offense. Eddy Curry, Zach Randolph, Marbury, Richardson, Crawford, Robinson are offensive players not known for their defense. What Dantoni does is he stops trying to jam square pegs in round holes and just cuts the holes into squares. Genius. What I don't agree with is sitting Marbury. He would run an uptempo team very well and even if you didn't plan to keep him, you could showcase him for 2 months and then trade him after he regains his value. Now the Knicks are going to have to eat his contract, not that they have problem with eating contracts. Duhon is not a starting point guard in this league. Its like the Charlie Ward days all over again. You might get excited if he plays well for one or two games but the next game is going to be a dud. The malady of franchise point guards that lose favor with their coach, lose their confidence and then lose all value should be named Stevie Franchise syndrome. I can't think of 2 players as talented that have diminished so quickly without a physical ailment or substance abuse.
If this Wilson Chandler thing works out, then Dantoni needs to called Einstein, or maybe Michelangelo for his Italian roots and ushering in the Knick renaissance. David Lee is a good, solid, energy PF who does all the dirty work that a team needs. Wilson Chandler is a shorter, less talented version of David Lee. I don't think the Knicks should overpay for David Lee but not playing him isn't going to decrease his market value or help the team.
Sunday, November 9, 2008
College Football Notes Follow up
The polls came out today and the AP poll clearly shows its east coast media bias by placing Penn State 7th and Utah 8th. I can't explain it any other way except that nobody watches Utah on television so they don't know how good they are and Penn State is on TV every week. If you objectively compare their schedules, it would be hard for anyone to claim that Penn State has had the better year.
Same Opponents
Penn State and Utah have both beaten Oregon State and Michigan. Penn State crushed both teams and Utah barely won both games but wins are wins at this point in the season. The Michigan game was also on the road for Utah. Slight edge Penn State
Conference Schedules
The Big Ten is really down this year and Penn State's wins are over an Illini team that just lost to Western Michigan, an OK Purdue team, Wisconson which is the biggest disappointment in the BCS and Ohio State is their signature win, but when was the last time that Ohio State has beaten anyone good? They seem to win the ones they are supposed to win but lose to anyone that has any talent. Penn State even manages to avoid having to play Minnesota and Northwestern, the fourth and fifth best teams in the conference.
On the other hand the MWC is having its best year on record with even Wyoming this week beating Tennesee in Knoxville. Utah has beaten Colorado State, UNLV, New Mexico, and Wyoming which are average teams but not much worse than Penn State's Big Ten schedule. They have a win over a good Air Force squad and their signature win is over TCU this last week.
Edge - Draw
Both teams non conference schedule other than the games mentioned are pretty much cupcakes. Syracuse might be the worst Division IA football program. Did anyone even know that Temple had a football team? Edge - Even
What is nonsensical about all of this is that things are pretty even up till now and then you have to factor in that Penn State has LOST!. They LOST one game and it wasn't even to a good opponent but to an average Iowa team. If Utah lost to even a good team like Air Force, there is no way they would be sniffing the top 10 right now. Penn State loses to a non ranked opponent and they drop only four spots in the rankings? If Utah beats BYU and still ends up being ranked below Penn State, they should just throw the AP polls out for good. At least the AP polls are not used in the BCS rankings. Huge Edge Utah
Same Opponents
Penn State and Utah have both beaten Oregon State and Michigan. Penn State crushed both teams and Utah barely won both games but wins are wins at this point in the season. The Michigan game was also on the road for Utah. Slight edge Penn State
Conference Schedules
The Big Ten is really down this year and Penn State's wins are over an Illini team that just lost to Western Michigan, an OK Purdue team, Wisconson which is the biggest disappointment in the BCS and Ohio State is their signature win, but when was the last time that Ohio State has beaten anyone good? They seem to win the ones they are supposed to win but lose to anyone that has any talent. Penn State even manages to avoid having to play Minnesota and Northwestern, the fourth and fifth best teams in the conference.
On the other hand the MWC is having its best year on record with even Wyoming this week beating Tennesee in Knoxville. Utah has beaten Colorado State, UNLV, New Mexico, and Wyoming which are average teams but not much worse than Penn State's Big Ten schedule. They have a win over a good Air Force squad and their signature win is over TCU this last week.
Edge - Draw
Both teams non conference schedule other than the games mentioned are pretty much cupcakes. Syracuse might be the worst Division IA football program. Did anyone even know that Temple had a football team? Edge - Even
What is nonsensical about all of this is that things are pretty even up till now and then you have to factor in that Penn State has LOST!. They LOST one game and it wasn't even to a good opponent but to an average Iowa team. If Utah lost to even a good team like Air Force, there is no way they would be sniffing the top 10 right now. Penn State loses to a non ranked opponent and they drop only four spots in the rankings? If Utah beats BYU and still ends up being ranked below Penn State, they should just throw the AP polls out for good. At least the AP polls are not used in the BCS rankings. Huge Edge Utah
Saturday, November 8, 2008
College Fooball Notes
This has been an amazing college football season for non-BCS fans. There are 2 teams in the top 10, both with legitimate chances of being undefeated and playing in a BCS bowl. BYU, TCU and Ball State will be in the top 20 and Air Force will probably be ranked 25th this week. 4 ranked teams in one poll for the MWC would be a milestone that proves to a lot of people that the MWC has really improved. I think a lot of objective people would vote the Mountain West at least the fourth best conference, and maybe even the third.
TCU
TCU will probably fall to about 18-20 after losing to a mentally tough Utah team. I think that they were at a disadvantage having not played any close games recently. All of their games have been blowouts (even the loss against OK and the win vs BYU) and there is a different mentality needed with a game that is close in the fourth quarter. Utah has played close games all season and won and that type of training was vital with pressure situations in the fourth quarter. TCU is probably the better, more talented team but Utah outplayed them in this one game elimination for a spot in the BCS.
UTAH
With Penn State losing today, Utah moves up one spot to the 7th spot and maybe even higher for beating a good team in TCU. With the way the schedule works, Alabama, Texas, and USC look like they will win out their seasons and so will only move up. The loser of the OK-Texas Tech game will drop below Utah. Florida has a mildly tough game left in Florida State, but they should win that. Utah will probably still be ranked 7th and BYU ranked 12th or so when they play in two weeks. This is assuming that BYU beats Air Force on the road, which might not happen. I haven't looked it up, but I am assuming that this is the highest that both teams will be ranked while playing each other, which will make this rivalry game even more exciting. Too bad nobody will see it except the four people who subscribe tho the MTN.
BCS scenarios
I expect Utah to beat BYU, but do they have any chance to get into the Championship game? What happens if Oklahoma beats Texas Tech but then loses to Ok State. Oklahoma would be eliminated with 2 losses. Texas wins the Big 12 south division and plays in the BIG 12 championship game. Losing to Missouri would make them a 2 loss team. If Alabama beats Florida to win the SEC championship game, then Florida would also have 2 losses. That would leave only USC to leap frog and comparing the resumes and conferences of the two schools, Utah would have as good or better of an argument than USC. Utah would boast wins over BYU, TCU, Air Force and Oregon State, winning the MWC which is stronger than the Pac 10 this year and an undefeated record. USC has wins over Ohio State, Oregon and Cal, but lost to Oregon State and the MWC has owned the PAC 10 this year. I'm not saying that Utah is better than USC but that their body of work over the course of the year would be more deserving than USC. There are a lot of big IF's in this little scenario but it is amazing that a non-BCS school has a plausible chance to play in the championship game this late in the year.
BYU
BYU is in an interesting position as it looked like they were done after the TCU loss and somehow the computers have resurrected them in the BCS polls. The jumped from 20 to 15 with a sorry win over Colorado State and we will see where they are this week. Perhaps at 13-14 with Georgia nearly losing, OK state now with 2 losses and TCU with 2 losses. If BYU beats Air Force, then like I mentioned before BYU plays Utah ranked 12th or so and Utah 7th. They would most likely end up in the top 12 in the BCS polls but would they leap frog an undefeated Boise State team? Probably not and while theoretically BYU would be the second non BCS qualifier, there is no way that a BCS bowl would pick BYU over Ohio State, Georgia, or Missouri. Too bad that not being chosen is going to mean the Las Vegas Bowl. Why can't BYU end up in a bowl game vs Michigan State, LSU or North Carolina and prove that they can hang with the BCS? The Mountain West undervalues itself by binding their conference winners to play fourth place teams in the PAC-10.
Playoff vs Current System
With Obama mentioning an eight team playoff, the buzz about a new system is gaining strength again. What teams this year would get into an eight team playoff? Would it be conference winners or would it be by polls? As bad as the BCS system is, I don't see any how an eight team playoff would be any better for getting non-BCS in the mix. Would Utah even make it to an eight team playoff this year? I actually think that a guaranteed spot for non-BCS teams for a BCS bowl is about as equitable as it needs to be. The Big 12 and SEC actually get cheated out of a spot in a bowl game by having their conference championship games. A small conference like the Big East with only eight mediocre teams benefits the most as you have a higher chance of winning the conference championship (1/8 is better than 1/12.) I think the fact that Boise State has a legitimate shot at a BCS bowl coming from the WAC, when if they were in any other conference they wouldn't be conference champs, is very generous.
TCU
TCU will probably fall to about 18-20 after losing to a mentally tough Utah team. I think that they were at a disadvantage having not played any close games recently. All of their games have been blowouts (even the loss against OK and the win vs BYU) and there is a different mentality needed with a game that is close in the fourth quarter. Utah has played close games all season and won and that type of training was vital with pressure situations in the fourth quarter. TCU is probably the better, more talented team but Utah outplayed them in this one game elimination for a spot in the BCS.
UTAH
With Penn State losing today, Utah moves up one spot to the 7th spot and maybe even higher for beating a good team in TCU. With the way the schedule works, Alabama, Texas, and USC look like they will win out their seasons and so will only move up. The loser of the OK-Texas Tech game will drop below Utah. Florida has a mildly tough game left in Florida State, but they should win that. Utah will probably still be ranked 7th and BYU ranked 12th or so when they play in two weeks. This is assuming that BYU beats Air Force on the road, which might not happen. I haven't looked it up, but I am assuming that this is the highest that both teams will be ranked while playing each other, which will make this rivalry game even more exciting. Too bad nobody will see it except the four people who subscribe tho the MTN.
BCS scenarios
I expect Utah to beat BYU, but do they have any chance to get into the Championship game? What happens if Oklahoma beats Texas Tech but then loses to Ok State. Oklahoma would be eliminated with 2 losses. Texas wins the Big 12 south division and plays in the BIG 12 championship game. Losing to Missouri would make them a 2 loss team. If Alabama beats Florida to win the SEC championship game, then Florida would also have 2 losses. That would leave only USC to leap frog and comparing the resumes and conferences of the two schools, Utah would have as good or better of an argument than USC. Utah would boast wins over BYU, TCU, Air Force and Oregon State, winning the MWC which is stronger than the Pac 10 this year and an undefeated record. USC has wins over Ohio State, Oregon and Cal, but lost to Oregon State and the MWC has owned the PAC 10 this year. I'm not saying that Utah is better than USC but that their body of work over the course of the year would be more deserving than USC. There are a lot of big IF's in this little scenario but it is amazing that a non-BCS school has a plausible chance to play in the championship game this late in the year.
BYU
BYU is in an interesting position as it looked like they were done after the TCU loss and somehow the computers have resurrected them in the BCS polls. The jumped from 20 to 15 with a sorry win over Colorado State and we will see where they are this week. Perhaps at 13-14 with Georgia nearly losing, OK state now with 2 losses and TCU with 2 losses. If BYU beats Air Force, then like I mentioned before BYU plays Utah ranked 12th or so and Utah 7th. They would most likely end up in the top 12 in the BCS polls but would they leap frog an undefeated Boise State team? Probably not and while theoretically BYU would be the second non BCS qualifier, there is no way that a BCS bowl would pick BYU over Ohio State, Georgia, or Missouri. Too bad that not being chosen is going to mean the Las Vegas Bowl. Why can't BYU end up in a bowl game vs Michigan State, LSU or North Carolina and prove that they can hang with the BCS? The Mountain West undervalues itself by binding their conference winners to play fourth place teams in the PAC-10.
Playoff vs Current System
With Obama mentioning an eight team playoff, the buzz about a new system is gaining strength again. What teams this year would get into an eight team playoff? Would it be conference winners or would it be by polls? As bad as the BCS system is, I don't see any how an eight team playoff would be any better for getting non-BCS in the mix. Would Utah even make it to an eight team playoff this year? I actually think that a guaranteed spot for non-BCS teams for a BCS bowl is about as equitable as it needs to be. The Big 12 and SEC actually get cheated out of a spot in a bowl game by having their conference championship games. A small conference like the Big East with only eight mediocre teams benefits the most as you have a higher chance of winning the conference championship (1/8 is better than 1/12.) I think the fact that Boise State has a legitimate shot at a BCS bowl coming from the WAC, when if they were in any other conference they wouldn't be conference champs, is very generous.
Friday, November 7, 2008
What does thunder have to do with Oklahoma City?
Do you know anyone that has been to Oklahoma city, wants to go to Oklahoma City or will ever go to Oklahoma City? Few cities with major sports franchises inspire less reason to visit than Oklahoma City. Other than the OK City bombing, does anyone know anything about this city? I'm not even a typical northeasterner that has never been to the Midwest and I still had barely heard of it. I've lived in the Midwest for six years and I was surprised to find out that it has about 500,00 people, which is quite comparable to Boston and much larger than Salt Lake. Sacramento and Green Bay are two other cities with a sports team where I wouldn't even be curious to stop for gas.
Switching cities, especially from Seattle which has a good basketball history and television market to a completely new place seems ill conceived. It isn't that basketball can't survive in smaller markets because it can - as proven by the Jazz and Kings - but moving doesn't cure all of your ills. Teams in smaller markets have to be smarter. They have less leeway to have lean years as your revenue sources aren't as large. You have less room to make a bad signing because of smaller television contracts and lower ticket prices. I know that there were a lot of reasons for this latest move but if Seattle was consistently in the playoffs, Ok City would never have happened. How many years does a team get before it has to leave down again because it isn't winning, which really means poor management. You can't blame the city and the fans but you have to blame the owner and the GM for making poor moves. Ask Memphis when people are going to be sick of losing and it is going to become the Shanghai Sharks of the global NBA?
The Jazz got a pretty easy victory tonight with the whole team contributing. Ok just doesn't have anyone consistent on a night to night basis. Durant is talented and in 2 more years he will be good. I'm not sure what his career will look like as he was predicted to be a future Hall of Famer but early returns don't look as promising. I am thinking more of a 3-4 time all star that leads his team in scoring but doesn't do much else, like a Jerry Stackhouse. Jeff Green looks like he can become a good third option in a couple of years. This team could use some veteran big men to do the dirty work inside and a solid team first point guard like Brevin Knight to get the ball to the young guys. Playing Earl Watson, a career backup, starters minutes isn't going to help improve anyone.
Knight is doing an amazing job running this team right now. Price isn't playing badly but you wonder what is going to happen when Williams comes back. Nobody played badly tonight and everyone contributed. I don't think I give Boozer enough credit for putting up the solid numbers that he does. He doesn't shoot 20 times a game to get his points and he looks for the ball when the team needs to score. He gets his points so easilly, like he hardly works for it. Kirilenko is playing very well and the 2 things that show that he is playing like the old AK are his rebounds and free throws. It means that he is spending more time near the basket instead of camping outside. He had only had three games with double digit rebounds and only 3 double doubles last year, terrible for a guy that is 6-9 and has had years of averaging over 8 a game. Tonight he marked his 2d of each in the young season. Of note, he and Peja Stojakovic are tied for most unintelligible post game interview. I wonder if an American playing overseas has ever done a post game interview in the native language of that country? Sometimes I see soccer players giving interviews in multiple languages and it would be nice to see an American doing that for once. At least in bad broken Spanish with an American accent.
No reason to get too excited about this 5-0 start, beatin up on bad teams at home is a Jazz specialty. Now the Jazz get some tougher games on this next five game road trip. For some reason the Jazz always play poorly against the Knicks and I can see a close loss but it is probably their best bet for a win. If they took 2 out of 5 by beating Charlotte and Washington it would be a successful road trip. The Washington and Cleveland games are back ends of back to backs so it wouldn't surprise me they didn't play well in either game. The team has been together long enough that is should start to win against the bad teams on the road.
Looking at 82games.com, there was a revised +/- list for all players this last season and there are a couple of surprises for the Jazz. I like the +/- rating because there so many things that you can't measure through ordinary stats. Things like tipped passes that lead to an eventual shot clock violation, shots altered instead of blocked or a hustle play that demoralizes the other team are not counted on paper. I think you can capture some of that in a +/- rating and I like how they broke it down into offense and defense. Leading the offense was Steve Nash and with his passing ability that makes sense, even more sense then a big time scorer. For the Jazz, AK came out on top. The team did seem to play its best when he was on the floor. I thought for sure that Williams or Boozer would have the best offensive numbers but in general I think that anybody that watches a lot of Jazz games can see appreciate what AK can do.
Switching cities, especially from Seattle which has a good basketball history and television market to a completely new place seems ill conceived. It isn't that basketball can't survive in smaller markets because it can - as proven by the Jazz and Kings - but moving doesn't cure all of your ills. Teams in smaller markets have to be smarter. They have less leeway to have lean years as your revenue sources aren't as large. You have less room to make a bad signing because of smaller television contracts and lower ticket prices. I know that there were a lot of reasons for this latest move but if Seattle was consistently in the playoffs, Ok City would never have happened. How many years does a team get before it has to leave down again because it isn't winning, which really means poor management. You can't blame the city and the fans but you have to blame the owner and the GM for making poor moves. Ask Memphis when people are going to be sick of losing and it is going to become the Shanghai Sharks of the global NBA?
The Jazz got a pretty easy victory tonight with the whole team contributing. Ok just doesn't have anyone consistent on a night to night basis. Durant is talented and in 2 more years he will be good. I'm not sure what his career will look like as he was predicted to be a future Hall of Famer but early returns don't look as promising. I am thinking more of a 3-4 time all star that leads his team in scoring but doesn't do much else, like a Jerry Stackhouse. Jeff Green looks like he can become a good third option in a couple of years. This team could use some veteran big men to do the dirty work inside and a solid team first point guard like Brevin Knight to get the ball to the young guys. Playing Earl Watson, a career backup, starters minutes isn't going to help improve anyone.
Knight is doing an amazing job running this team right now. Price isn't playing badly but you wonder what is going to happen when Williams comes back. Nobody played badly tonight and everyone contributed. I don't think I give Boozer enough credit for putting up the solid numbers that he does. He doesn't shoot 20 times a game to get his points and he looks for the ball when the team needs to score. He gets his points so easilly, like he hardly works for it. Kirilenko is playing very well and the 2 things that show that he is playing like the old AK are his rebounds and free throws. It means that he is spending more time near the basket instead of camping outside. He had only had three games with double digit rebounds and only 3 double doubles last year, terrible for a guy that is 6-9 and has had years of averaging over 8 a game. Tonight he marked his 2d of each in the young season. Of note, he and Peja Stojakovic are tied for most unintelligible post game interview. I wonder if an American playing overseas has ever done a post game interview in the native language of that country? Sometimes I see soccer players giving interviews in multiple languages and it would be nice to see an American doing that for once. At least in bad broken Spanish with an American accent.
No reason to get too excited about this 5-0 start, beatin up on bad teams at home is a Jazz specialty. Now the Jazz get some tougher games on this next five game road trip. For some reason the Jazz always play poorly against the Knicks and I can see a close loss but it is probably their best bet for a win. If they took 2 out of 5 by beating Charlotte and Washington it would be a successful road trip. The Washington and Cleveland games are back ends of back to backs so it wouldn't surprise me they didn't play well in either game. The team has been together long enough that is should start to win against the bad teams on the road.
Looking at 82games.com, there was a revised +/- list for all players this last season and there are a couple of surprises for the Jazz. I like the +/- rating because there so many things that you can't measure through ordinary stats. Things like tipped passes that lead to an eventual shot clock violation, shots altered instead of blocked or a hustle play that demoralizes the other team are not counted on paper. I think you can capture some of that in a +/- rating and I like how they broke it down into offense and defense. Leading the offense was Steve Nash and with his passing ability that makes sense, even more sense then a big time scorer. For the Jazz, AK came out on top. The team did seem to play its best when he was on the floor. I thought for sure that Williams or Boozer would have the best offensive numbers but in general I think that anybody that watches a lot of Jazz games can see appreciate what AK can do.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Utah vs. Portland
Portland game notes
It was good to see the Jazz rally from a fourth quarter deficit to win the game, even without Deron Williams. Four games down and Brevin Knight is already stealing minutes from Ronnie Price. The second unit will run much better than last year. The Knight trade was one of those bottom of the transaction wire type deals that most people don't notice. Championship teams have role players who know their role. Fans are enamored with Price's athleticism but a good back up PG is someone who plays within himself. Price hasn't been playing badly but he often tries to do too much. You get the feeling that he doesn't know how to slow himself down just yet. Price has a place in the NBA but it isn't for more than 15 minutes a game or his weaknesses get exposed. Knight ran the team well when they needed a run to come back in the game. The offense was well balanced tonight and Memo had his first good shooting game.
AK turned the ball over but at least he was active. You can tell because he went to the line a lot. He is most effective when he is around the basket and draws fouls. So far his numbers for the first four games are very similar to his averages from 3 years ago when he was playing well so the sixth man role has been working out well but I wonder if his touches are going to go down when Williams comes back and more of the offense runs through him.
Williams will make the teams offense run much more efficiently. Their shooting percentages have been lower than usual and they have been playing at a slower pace than last year and number wise have been giving up less points but I'm not sure that means better defense.
The Iverson/Billups deal
I'm not sure what motivated the deal other than the fact that both teams needed to shake things up. It was a lateral move for both clubs but if I were to pick a winner, It would be Denver. Denver has a nice lineup except that they were playing Anthony Carter starter's minutes at the point when he really isn't a starter. Billups is a solid point guard. He does most things well without being spectacular at anything. On a good team he is your third best player like he was on Detroit. His problem is that he signed a big long term deal and he is not as young as it seems. He developed so late in his career that he has only been a star in the league for five years but he is already turning 32 this year and point guards have a habit of slowing down at this age unless you are John Stockton.
Denver is a talented team that doesn't fit well together. It is a classic situation where the whole is worth less than the sum of its parts. Iverson was just another expensive piece that didn't fit well and it is smart to start selling parts because this team is not going anywhere but the bottom of the playoff race. The team seems directionless. In the summer they give away Camby for free and now they get a veteran point guard that has already seen his best years. Why not trade Iverson for youngsters, picks and expiring contracts to build for the future? If you trying to make a run with this team, why not keep Camby?
Detroit now has three guys that like to shoot first in Iverson, Stuckey and Hamilton. Hamilton can score but almost gives you nothing else. Stuckey can score but I doubt he can come in to be the primary point guard. Iverson is a pretty good passer but he hasn't succeeded at the PG spot in the past and he isn't going to now. Detroit is at the same place that the Suns, Dallas and Spurs are, teams that have had their window close and now are good veteran teams that will win fifty games and look good losing in the second round of the playoffs. Dumars gets credit for being a good GM but if he had picked Bosh, Wade or Melo instead of Darko, this team could have been repeat champs. He was given a slam dunk and he missed it and the one miss probably cost the Pistons one or maybe more championships. Sometimes you look back at the draft and your team was picking 20th and you end up with a dud and wished that they got the second round steal that everyone missed. The problem with that is that you didn't have much of chance to get an impact player with the 20th pick, but missing out on a superstar with the 2d pick sets your team back 10 years. One is buying a lottery ticket and then losing, the other is winning the lottery and then losing the ticket.
NBA notes
San Antonio almost went to 0-4 but needed a heroic effort from Parker to get a win against the Twovles. Duncan and Parker took 62 shots between the two of them and scored 85 points but still needed double OT to win. SA is not this bad but the rest of the team looks like they are ready to retire. Matt Bonner getting major minutes is a bad sign. When they get Ginobili back they are still a 50 win team but you still need role players to win in the playoffs.
Boston looked good winning in Houston the other night. Yao has problems with guys that body him. He loses his balance quickly and Perkins did a great job of pushing him the whole night. Boston with its defense can win with KG only averaging 15 points a game.
It is early but Durant has not looked good. I thought he would start the season shooting better and rebounding better like he finished last year but he is not doing much on a bad team. I wonder if there is just too much pressure for him to produce as he is the star on a young team in a new city.
Go Hawks! When was the last time that the Hawks were 3-0? They just beat New Orleans on the road and have wins against two potential playoff teams, Orlando and Philadelphia. They will definitely have a long losing streak mid season but perhaps if they have enough of a cushion it wont hurt kill their playoff chances.
It was good to see the Jazz rally from a fourth quarter deficit to win the game, even without Deron Williams. Four games down and Brevin Knight is already stealing minutes from Ronnie Price. The second unit will run much better than last year. The Knight trade was one of those bottom of the transaction wire type deals that most people don't notice. Championship teams have role players who know their role. Fans are enamored with Price's athleticism but a good back up PG is someone who plays within himself. Price hasn't been playing badly but he often tries to do too much. You get the feeling that he doesn't know how to slow himself down just yet. Price has a place in the NBA but it isn't for more than 15 minutes a game or his weaknesses get exposed. Knight ran the team well when they needed a run to come back in the game. The offense was well balanced tonight and Memo had his first good shooting game.
AK turned the ball over but at least he was active. You can tell because he went to the line a lot. He is most effective when he is around the basket and draws fouls. So far his numbers for the first four games are very similar to his averages from 3 years ago when he was playing well so the sixth man role has been working out well but I wonder if his touches are going to go down when Williams comes back and more of the offense runs through him.
Williams will make the teams offense run much more efficiently. Their shooting percentages have been lower than usual and they have been playing at a slower pace than last year and number wise have been giving up less points but I'm not sure that means better defense.
The Iverson/Billups deal
I'm not sure what motivated the deal other than the fact that both teams needed to shake things up. It was a lateral move for both clubs but if I were to pick a winner, It would be Denver. Denver has a nice lineup except that they were playing Anthony Carter starter's minutes at the point when he really isn't a starter. Billups is a solid point guard. He does most things well without being spectacular at anything. On a good team he is your third best player like he was on Detroit. His problem is that he signed a big long term deal and he is not as young as it seems. He developed so late in his career that he has only been a star in the league for five years but he is already turning 32 this year and point guards have a habit of slowing down at this age unless you are John Stockton.
Denver is a talented team that doesn't fit well together. It is a classic situation where the whole is worth less than the sum of its parts. Iverson was just another expensive piece that didn't fit well and it is smart to start selling parts because this team is not going anywhere but the bottom of the playoff race. The team seems directionless. In the summer they give away Camby for free and now they get a veteran point guard that has already seen his best years. Why not trade Iverson for youngsters, picks and expiring contracts to build for the future? If you trying to make a run with this team, why not keep Camby?
Detroit now has three guys that like to shoot first in Iverson, Stuckey and Hamilton. Hamilton can score but almost gives you nothing else. Stuckey can score but I doubt he can come in to be the primary point guard. Iverson is a pretty good passer but he hasn't succeeded at the PG spot in the past and he isn't going to now. Detroit is at the same place that the Suns, Dallas and Spurs are, teams that have had their window close and now are good veteran teams that will win fifty games and look good losing in the second round of the playoffs. Dumars gets credit for being a good GM but if he had picked Bosh, Wade or Melo instead of Darko, this team could have been repeat champs. He was given a slam dunk and he missed it and the one miss probably cost the Pistons one or maybe more championships. Sometimes you look back at the draft and your team was picking 20th and you end up with a dud and wished that they got the second round steal that everyone missed. The problem with that is that you didn't have much of chance to get an impact player with the 20th pick, but missing out on a superstar with the 2d pick sets your team back 10 years. One is buying a lottery ticket and then losing, the other is winning the lottery and then losing the ticket.
NBA notes
San Antonio almost went to 0-4 but needed a heroic effort from Parker to get a win against the Twovles. Duncan and Parker took 62 shots between the two of them and scored 85 points but still needed double OT to win. SA is not this bad but the rest of the team looks like they are ready to retire. Matt Bonner getting major minutes is a bad sign. When they get Ginobili back they are still a 50 win team but you still need role players to win in the playoffs.
Boston looked good winning in Houston the other night. Yao has problems with guys that body him. He loses his balance quickly and Perkins did a great job of pushing him the whole night. Boston with its defense can win with KG only averaging 15 points a game.
It is early but Durant has not looked good. I thought he would start the season shooting better and rebounding better like he finished last year but he is not doing much on a bad team. I wonder if there is just too much pressure for him to produce as he is the star on a young team in a new city.
Go Hawks! When was the last time that the Hawks were 3-0? They just beat New Orleans on the road and have wins against two potential playoff teams, Orlando and Philadelphia. They will definitely have a long losing streak mid season but perhaps if they have enough of a cushion it wont hurt kill their playoff chances.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
