This weekend's contest between BYU and Utah is probably the most anticipated game in the history of this rivalry so hopefully it lives up to expectations. Most games with this much hype turn out to be blowouts. There is a lot more on the line than bragging rights between family members. Major media outlets had been talking about this game even before the season began. In fact, why isn't this game covered on ESPN! Talk about a wasted opportunity to showcase its talent. The most important game in the history of the conference and only 2000 dish network subscribers will see the game on TV. Whatever the contract dispute, it shows some shortsightedness that needs to be reprimanded. Why not sign a one year deal just so that this game gets on TV? The problem with the Mtn is that it only reaches subscribers, which means you are a die hard MWC football fan already. The people you are trying to reach are general college football fans who are interested in a good game but wouldn't normally turn on a BYU game. How can you ever expect to recruit nationally if no one has even seen you play?
Final BCS scenarios.
So the non-BCS is looking like a 3 horse race with the finish line this weekend. Utah obviously has the clearest path. It controls its own destiny with computer numbers that Boise State can't match and a win preserves their lead in the Harris/Coaches polls. Utah might even leapfrog USC with an impressive win vs. BYU. Also, the Ok-Texas Tech game will determine if they jump a 2 loss Okalahoma. I doubt Texas Tech falls below Utah from a loss to a top 5 Oklahoma team.
Boise State is almost guaranteed the spot if Utah falls this weekend. They still have a semi-tough game against Nevada on the road. All they can do is win out and hope that Utah loses. Nevada played them well last year and more importantly, can a freshman quarterback really go undefeated? Going undefeated in even the worst conference is difficult. All it takes is one bad game. This is that bad game.
Ball State falling behind BYU last week was their virtual elimination from a BCS bowl. Even though Ball State plays a strong Central Michigan team helping their SOS, BYU's computer numbers will jump even more with a game against a #7 Utah, thus preserving their current lead if both teams win.
BYU needs to beat Utah and Boise State needs to lose one of the their last two games. It would be hard to rank a Utah team higher than a BYU team that just beat them and has the same number of losses. Boise State would probably fall 10 spots if they lose to any WAC opponent so that would place BYU around 12 in the polls, high enough to qualify for the automatic bid. They looked like they were finished a couple of week ago but all of the pieces might magically fall into place for them to get to their goal.
Long term outlook of non BCS teams
So looking past the immediate ramifications of a win or loss for either school, what would a win or loss mean for the long term. Part of that question is answered by another question. Setting all allegiances aside, which team would best represent the non-BCS in a bowl game?. In other words, who would have a chance at winning against a team like Oklahoma, Texas, or USC?
Boise State getting the bid is the least attractive option for the non-BCS. It has played the weakest schedule of the 3 schools and in one of the weakest conferences. It would be like Hawaii all over again but at least Hawaii had a Heisman Candidate in Colt Brennan that made the team interesting. A BCS bowl loss would only prove to detractors that non-BCS teams play bad teams and don't really belong there in first place. This might justify the eventual removal or stiffer requirements for automatic qualification for non-BCS teams. Of the three schools, it has the most modest chance of sustaining itself long term. The program is a young program with a lot of success that is dependent on their current coaching staff. It hasn't had the time to endure conference changes, coaches leaving, player scandals and the like that can tear a program down. The non-BCS doesn't need two hit wonders. What it needs are marquee teams that represent the group well. With all that being said, 2 BCS bowls in three years would be very impressive.
BYU getting the bid has its advantages and disadvantages. Getting a one loss team in would mean that the non-BCS had gained tremendous respect over the last few years. Nobody would ever have predicted that a one loss team would even qualify. A BYU win over a one loss team such as USC or Alabama in a bowl game would be a tremendous argument against the one loss handicap that the current non-BCS teams receive. It would justify the MWC's high rankings throughout the year and further the view the notion that it iis better than some of the BCS conferences. Sustaining that for two to three more years would provide legitimate credentials to gain entry into the BCS party. BYU also travels well and would bring its own fans to a game in any destination, especially Arizona. It also has the highest chance of sustainability as it is the best known program, the one with the most history and will be ranked in the top 15 next year in the preseason with many skill positions returning starters. The big down side is that not having an undefeated team is just not that exciting. An undefeated team makes it historic, David vs Goliath, a must watch college football game with a possibility of having an outside claim at the national championship. There is a sense of the unknown creating intrigue. A one loss team will be..well...boring for everyone outside of Utah.
I think that Utah getting the bid would create the most drama. It would have the best wins resume and it has some decent history on its side. Two BCS games with two different coaches shows sustainability. It would prove all of the things that a win by BYU provides but as an undefeated team. It could end up as high as 3d in the polls. If the national title game is close and Utah wins in a blowout, it could even get a few votes for #1 in the final AP poll. Finally, I think it is the best team all around, offense and defense that would give a good game to a BCS opponent. BYU also has had a horrific bowl history. Even last year's Las Vegas Bowl win was pretty pathetic considering UCLA wasn't even ranked.
Still, being a BYU fan you don't necessarily care for what is best for the conference, more what is best for your school so I can only hope BYU wins in a good game.
Prediction: Utah 28-BYU-21.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Monday, November 17, 2008
Home team vs the Road team. Which team is the real Jazz?
Two good opponenets, two competitive games, two different outcomes. The difference? Two different venues. The loss to the Lebron Jameses wasn't surprising or embarrassing. It was the last game of a 5 game road trip and the 2d half of a back to back so it was more of a scheduling loss but they had a lot of energy for 3 quarters. The game was close throughout until the Cavs went on a run in the fourth. The Jazz didn't have their full squad and the lack of poise in key situations shows on the road in tight games. 1-4 on the road trip with all four losses being winnable games. The home team always makes a run in the NBA and I'm not too worried because this is where a good point guard makes the difference. Not that it made much of a difference last year with their poor road record but last year was last year. This is Williams' team now and in those pressure moments on the road in a close game when the crowd is going crazy, he has the composure to slow the game down and find the right people.
My brothers and I had a rim that went up and down in our backyard and we would do crazy jams on it for hours. Lebron James looks like he is playing on an eight foot rim in his backyard all of the time. He gets up so high and dunks it so hard that you wonder if he is genetically engineered to play sports. This whole Kobe vs Lebron arguement ends this year as he officially takes the throne as the best player. Kobe has more refined skills but the sheer difference in physical strength, speed and size is too great to overcome. You don't even need to see his averages of 30-8-8 on a mediocre team to see his superiority. Anyone who watches him for even one quarter knows it is effortless. He is the big brother that says "enough" and bullies his way to the hoop. Kobe looks like a skinny KG out of high school compared to Lebron. Does he work out or just naturally look like that? He would be the greatest tight end of all time if he chose to play in the NFL. The combination of his quickness and size, you could go over the middle and he would be faster and bigger then anyone in the secondary. You could just lob it over the top and tell him to go jump for it with his 40+ inch vertical. I think most basketball players would make great wide outs in the NFL. Karl Malone might have been a fantatic tight end with his hands. He could catch anything that was within 10 feet of him and he would hurt people with his razor elbows.
Last night's game against the Suns went about the same for three quarters as the Cavs game except at home they have more reserve. They plug into their crowds energy and go on a 12 - 0 rub at a critical point in the game to pull out the win. The final score wasn't close but the game was close. Amare is unstoppable. A beast. He could average 14 points a game on dunks. He is another pure athlete almost in the Lebron class. Now if he only developed some post up moves to go with the dunks. They should do an experiment where they take 6-9+ guys with hops, long arms and coordination in the NBA and make them red zone wide outs in the NFL. Can you imagine Amare on a fade route? He would be Randy Moss but SIX inches taller and a higher vertical leap! Most of the cornerbacks are 5-11 to 6-3 and would be sniffing his armpits on touchdown grabs.
The whole team had a nice game last night. The second unit again with Knight, Milsap, Kirilenko, Korver broke this game wide open. The +/- numbers bear it out with that group being about +15. This group has been consistently extending leads and playing better than the first unit early in the season.
CJ had his first 20 point night of the year and shot very well. You could see this coming as the last couple of games he shot it better and he looks more comfortable in the offense. I expect him to have his ups and downs but I can see him putting in 8-10 points a game by the end of the year. Boozer was solid again. He has a tough assignment almost every night with the league having so many good power forwards. You wonder why he moves so well laterally on offense and can't on defense. Actually, I used to be the same way when I played as a youngster.
AK getting to the line is the essential to his offense. He was 8-8 from the line and averages more free throws than anyone else on the team. You can see what a boost the team gets when he blocks a shot. It is sad to see Shaq at this stage of his career. I remember three years ago watching a game where Yao blocked his shot straight up. It wasn't on a double team or from a help defender. That was when I knew that he wasn't the same the Shaq anymore. The old Shaq never had his shot blocked. If he had the ball tipped he would come down the next five possessions and just dunk on the fool. Now Shaq gets blocked three times in one night with one rebound. Its time for him to devlop his law enforcemnt and rap carreer. I'm exposing my younger brothers here but I admit they used to own one of his rap CDs. I'm sure they would like to bury that in their past.
What happened to Koufos last night and why did Collins play for 12 minutes and 55 seconds? His line was 0 pts, 0-2 from the line, 0 assists, 0 blocks, 0 rebounds and 2 fouls. He drives me crazy. Worst player in the NBA. Why does Jerry Sloan still play him minutes when you have young guys that could benefit from the experience? Harpring is the same story. He played 11:49 and that is almost 12 minutes that Miles, Brewer, AK, or even Morris Almond could have used. I saw some article in the SLTribune saying that the Jazz could have used his defense against Lebron James. What is the media's fascination with this guy. Announcers love to talk about how tough he is but no one mentions that he isn't productive anymore.
My brothers and I had a rim that went up and down in our backyard and we would do crazy jams on it for hours. Lebron James looks like he is playing on an eight foot rim in his backyard all of the time. He gets up so high and dunks it so hard that you wonder if he is genetically engineered to play sports. This whole Kobe vs Lebron arguement ends this year as he officially takes the throne as the best player. Kobe has more refined skills but the sheer difference in physical strength, speed and size is too great to overcome. You don't even need to see his averages of 30-8-8 on a mediocre team to see his superiority. Anyone who watches him for even one quarter knows it is effortless. He is the big brother that says "enough" and bullies his way to the hoop. Kobe looks like a skinny KG out of high school compared to Lebron. Does he work out or just naturally look like that? He would be the greatest tight end of all time if he chose to play in the NFL. The combination of his quickness and size, you could go over the middle and he would be faster and bigger then anyone in the secondary. You could just lob it over the top and tell him to go jump for it with his 40+ inch vertical. I think most basketball players would make great wide outs in the NFL. Karl Malone might have been a fantatic tight end with his hands. He could catch anything that was within 10 feet of him and he would hurt people with his razor elbows.
Last night's game against the Suns went about the same for three quarters as the Cavs game except at home they have more reserve. They plug into their crowds energy and go on a 12 - 0 rub at a critical point in the game to pull out the win. The final score wasn't close but the game was close. Amare is unstoppable. A beast. He could average 14 points a game on dunks. He is another pure athlete almost in the Lebron class. Now if he only developed some post up moves to go with the dunks. They should do an experiment where they take 6-9+ guys with hops, long arms and coordination in the NBA and make them red zone wide outs in the NFL. Can you imagine Amare on a fade route? He would be Randy Moss but SIX inches taller and a higher vertical leap! Most of the cornerbacks are 5-11 to 6-3 and would be sniffing his armpits on touchdown grabs.
The whole team had a nice game last night. The second unit again with Knight, Milsap, Kirilenko, Korver broke this game wide open. The +/- numbers bear it out with that group being about +15. This group has been consistently extending leads and playing better than the first unit early in the season.
CJ had his first 20 point night of the year and shot very well. You could see this coming as the last couple of games he shot it better and he looks more comfortable in the offense. I expect him to have his ups and downs but I can see him putting in 8-10 points a game by the end of the year. Boozer was solid again. He has a tough assignment almost every night with the league having so many good power forwards. You wonder why he moves so well laterally on offense and can't on defense. Actually, I used to be the same way when I played as a youngster.
AK getting to the line is the essential to his offense. He was 8-8 from the line and averages more free throws than anyone else on the team. You can see what a boost the team gets when he blocks a shot. It is sad to see Shaq at this stage of his career. I remember three years ago watching a game where Yao blocked his shot straight up. It wasn't on a double team or from a help defender. That was when I knew that he wasn't the same the Shaq anymore. The old Shaq never had his shot blocked. If he had the ball tipped he would come down the next five possessions and just dunk on the fool. Now Shaq gets blocked three times in one night with one rebound. Its time for him to devlop his law enforcemnt and rap carreer. I'm exposing my younger brothers here but I admit they used to own one of his rap CDs. I'm sure they would like to bury that in their past.
What happened to Koufos last night and why did Collins play for 12 minutes and 55 seconds? His line was 0 pts, 0-2 from the line, 0 assists, 0 blocks, 0 rebounds and 2 fouls. He drives me crazy. Worst player in the NBA. Why does Jerry Sloan still play him minutes when you have young guys that could benefit from the experience? Harpring is the same story. He played 11:49 and that is almost 12 minutes that Miles, Brewer, AK, or even Morris Almond could have used. I saw some article in the SLTribune saying that the Jazz could have used his defense against Lebron James. What is the media's fascination with this guy. Announcers love to talk about how tough he is but no one mentions that he isn't productive anymore.
Saturday, November 15, 2008
BYU's first big win! College Football Round up
BYU 38 Air Force 24!! Whoo hoo! From my last post readers might have thought that I was a Utes fan but in the interest of full disclosure, I admit that I have BYU leanings. This is the first victory against a winning program all season and although Air Force isn't a national power, they have had a good season. Their two losses had been to Utah in a close game and to Navy in a rivalry game lost on special teams mistakes. They haven't played the toughest schedule in the world but you get the sense their unorthodox approach would give many good teams fits. In the end they are a small program that doesn't have the size and speed to compete with the bigger schools but tends to overachieve.
Utah disposed of San Diego State and while it isn't quite the undefeated heavyweight fight that fans had hoped for, two top 15 teams playing for the Mountain West Championship isn't bad. As I stated in my last post, BYU needs this win to legitimize their ranking and season. Their schedule allowed them to lose to TCU, have a couple weeks to mope around and then gain some momentum going into the Utah game. I expect a close game as the talent level on both sides are about equal. Utah's offense has been up and down all season and so has BYU's defense. Whichever of the two shows up on Saturday will determine the winner. Max Hall has had four good games in a row and I don't expect him to have a problem with Utah's defense. I'll make a prediction later in the week.
Utah already has a solid resume. Their win over Oregon State is looking better and better each week. The win over TCU showed they can win a good defensive battle. They've already beaten Air Force and although Michigan had their worst season in history, a win in the Big House has historical significance for a program looking for national recognition. A win over BYU would mean an undefeated season, a solid conference championship and three wins over top 25 schools. In fact, you could say that this team would be more deserving of a BCS bid than the 2004 team. The only difference is the level of star power. No Heisman candidate Alex Smith and no hot shot coach Urban Meyer this year.
College Football Notes.
ACC
The ACC revolving door keeps spinning and spinning. By my count, they have had 8 different teams ranked during the course of the year. Every week, there are three new teams ranked somewhere in the bottom half of the top 25 and the very next week they lose. This week North Carolina(16), Florida State(19) and Wake Forest(24) all lost. These three will drop out and three new teams will show up next week and promptly lose. Look for BC, Maryland and Miami to take their places. Does having having 10 teams in a conference between 5-5 and 7-3 mean that the whole conference is good or that the whole conference is bad?
The Decline of Notre Dame
Notre Dame's star is gets dimmer and dimmer as they get further away from their last national championship. I know that they beat a pretty good Navy team this week, but the fact that Notre Dame fans are so ecstatic about beating a midshipmen team that they had previously beaten 40+ games in a row shows that this is not an elite program anymore. It is difficult for me to understand how a school that recruits nationally as well as they do can go through this long of a rebuilding process.
Big 12 up, SEC down.
The conference supremacy race has been between the SEC and the BIG 12 all season but we are seeing some separation down the strech. The SEC's true colors are showing as a top heavy conference with its share of weak teams. Florida has crushed teams all year long and is the favorite to represent the SEC in the BCS championship. They still have to beat Florida State and Alabama, but they certainly have the means to do it.
If you really look at Alabama's schedule, they only have one notable win vs. Georgia and an overtime victory vs. LSU. The rest of it is pretty weak and it is reflected in the computer numbers. You get the feeling that someone will expose this team and Florida is the team to do it.
LSU does not have a good win this year. They have lost all of their big games and nearly losing to Troy proves they are a middling squad who never deserved to be in the national title picture. Anyone who has watched them struggle with their offense knew they weren't going to be very consistent.
Georgia is a disappointment as the season's preseason #1. Their marquee win is over LSU. If they play a decent team, the games are close so look for Georgia Tech to give them a good game.
Auburn and Tennessee's early season rankings proved to be creations of the east coast media machine. Everyone jumped on the Vandy bandwagon but then tires went flat. In essence, the SEC is a two team race while the BIG 12 has five excellent teams that can compete with anyone in the nation.
Conference Rankings
1. Big 12 - no contest. 5 teams ranked in the top 15. All of the games between top teams have been close, competitive contests. Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma have true championship potential. None of the top teams have bad losses, only losses to good teams.
2. SEC - distant second. Urban Meyer might be looking at his second national championship.
3. Big Ten - Penn State and Ohio State might not be title contenders but are very good teams. Respectable middle of the pack with Michigan State, Northwestern and Iowa distinguishes the Big Ten from the MWC. On the other hand, the bottom has suffered a lot of bad losses to non-BCS squads.
4. MWC - Solid top 4 teams but terrible bottom 3 teams. Best year in the history of the conference. Bowl victories will mean more than ever. Please sign a contract with ESPN. What is the VS channel? Don't they show a lot of wrestling?
5. ACC- A lot of parity in the league with any team being able to defeat another team on a given week. This would be a tough conference to go through undefeated.
6. PAC 10 - You wonder how good Oregon and Oregon State are but if Oregon State beats Arizona and then Oregon, they are going to the Rose Bowl. That will mean 2 BCS bids as USC will get an at large birth. They were humiliated in non conference play this year but you have to like that they didn't schedule cupcakes like the rest of the big conferences.
7. Big Least - Pollsters feel obligated to rank someone so they just pick whichever team has the best record that week. Did you even know that Cincinnati had a football team? Who knew that they were good last year too? Hopefully the BCS drops this league for the MWC in a couple of years.
Utah disposed of San Diego State and while it isn't quite the undefeated heavyweight fight that fans had hoped for, two top 15 teams playing for the Mountain West Championship isn't bad. As I stated in my last post, BYU needs this win to legitimize their ranking and season. Their schedule allowed them to lose to TCU, have a couple weeks to mope around and then gain some momentum going into the Utah game. I expect a close game as the talent level on both sides are about equal. Utah's offense has been up and down all season and so has BYU's defense. Whichever of the two shows up on Saturday will determine the winner. Max Hall has had four good games in a row and I don't expect him to have a problem with Utah's defense. I'll make a prediction later in the week.
Utah already has a solid resume. Their win over Oregon State is looking better and better each week. The win over TCU showed they can win a good defensive battle. They've already beaten Air Force and although Michigan had their worst season in history, a win in the Big House has historical significance for a program looking for national recognition. A win over BYU would mean an undefeated season, a solid conference championship and three wins over top 25 schools. In fact, you could say that this team would be more deserving of a BCS bid than the 2004 team. The only difference is the level of star power. No Heisman candidate Alex Smith and no hot shot coach Urban Meyer this year.
College Football Notes.
ACC
The ACC revolving door keeps spinning and spinning. By my count, they have had 8 different teams ranked during the course of the year. Every week, there are three new teams ranked somewhere in the bottom half of the top 25 and the very next week they lose. This week North Carolina(16), Florida State(19) and Wake Forest(24) all lost. These three will drop out and three new teams will show up next week and promptly lose. Look for BC, Maryland and Miami to take their places. Does having having 10 teams in a conference between 5-5 and 7-3 mean that the whole conference is good or that the whole conference is bad?
The Decline of Notre Dame
Notre Dame's star is gets dimmer and dimmer as they get further away from their last national championship. I know that they beat a pretty good Navy team this week, but the fact that Notre Dame fans are so ecstatic about beating a midshipmen team that they had previously beaten 40+ games in a row shows that this is not an elite program anymore. It is difficult for me to understand how a school that recruits nationally as well as they do can go through this long of a rebuilding process.
Big 12 up, SEC down.
The conference supremacy race has been between the SEC and the BIG 12 all season but we are seeing some separation down the strech. The SEC's true colors are showing as a top heavy conference with its share of weak teams. Florida has crushed teams all year long and is the favorite to represent the SEC in the BCS championship. They still have to beat Florida State and Alabama, but they certainly have the means to do it.
If you really look at Alabama's schedule, they only have one notable win vs. Georgia and an overtime victory vs. LSU. The rest of it is pretty weak and it is reflected in the computer numbers. You get the feeling that someone will expose this team and Florida is the team to do it.
LSU does not have a good win this year. They have lost all of their big games and nearly losing to Troy proves they are a middling squad who never deserved to be in the national title picture. Anyone who has watched them struggle with their offense knew they weren't going to be very consistent.
Georgia is a disappointment as the season's preseason #1. Their marquee win is over LSU. If they play a decent team, the games are close so look for Georgia Tech to give them a good game.
Auburn and Tennessee's early season rankings proved to be creations of the east coast media machine. Everyone jumped on the Vandy bandwagon but then tires went flat. In essence, the SEC is a two team race while the BIG 12 has five excellent teams that can compete with anyone in the nation.
Conference Rankings
1. Big 12 - no contest. 5 teams ranked in the top 15. All of the games between top teams have been close, competitive contests. Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma have true championship potential. None of the top teams have bad losses, only losses to good teams.
2. SEC - distant second. Urban Meyer might be looking at his second national championship.
3. Big Ten - Penn State and Ohio State might not be title contenders but are very good teams. Respectable middle of the pack with Michigan State, Northwestern and Iowa distinguishes the Big Ten from the MWC. On the other hand, the bottom has suffered a lot of bad losses to non-BCS squads.
4. MWC - Solid top 4 teams but terrible bottom 3 teams. Best year in the history of the conference. Bowl victories will mean more than ever. Please sign a contract with ESPN. What is the VS channel? Don't they show a lot of wrestling?
5. ACC- A lot of parity in the league with any team being able to defeat another team on a given week. This would be a tough conference to go through undefeated.
6. PAC 10 - You wonder how good Oregon and Oregon State are but if Oregon State beats Arizona and then Oregon, they are going to the Rose Bowl. That will mean 2 BCS bids as USC will get an at large birth. They were humiliated in non conference play this year but you have to like that they didn't schedule cupcakes like the rest of the big conferences.
7. Big Least - Pollsters feel obligated to rank someone so they just pick whichever team has the best record that week. Did you even know that Cincinnati had a football team? Who knew that they were good last year too? Hopefully the BCS drops this league for the MWC in a couple of years.
Friday, November 14, 2008
Should BYU even be ranked in the top 25?
The knock against non BCS teams is that they play weak schedules and that they are ranked too high. Boise State and Ball State are undefeated but no one believes they would be undefeated in a BCS conference. They might be 5-5 in the SEC or the Big 12. Boise State would have trouble going undefeated in the Mountain West but it isn't their fault that they are in the WAC. Fairly or unfairly, Utah, BYU and TCU haven't had the same criticism levied against them because of the relative strength of the MWC this year. While I do feel that winning the MWC means something, I'm not sure if BYU's schedule has proven that they are a top 20 team.
BYU is ranked 14th in the coaches poll, 17th in the BCS but their ranking largely lies in being ranked highly in the preseason from last year's success. BYU fans will boast that they have a very healthy 9-1 record. They are also one of 11 teams in division 1A football with one loss or less. If they win the next two games they will be conference co-champions of the fourth best conference. Their only loss came to an 18th ranked TCU team with a very good defense. All of this is impressive except it disguses their awful schedule. Computer numbers have BYU's strength of schedule as low as 107(Sagarin ratings) which isn't much different than Boise State(115) and Ball State(118.) When the schedule was made, BYU didn't know that Washington was going to the worst team in college football. Same for UCLA being worse than last year. Here is BYU's schedule game by game.
1. W - Northern Iowa at home. Win fodder against an AA team. Every D1A football team other than Michigan beats this team. Can't count this win.
2. W - at Washington(0-9). Close win in the last second against a team that hasn't won a game all year. A win is a win. Washington's closest loss was 35-28 to Stanford.
3. W - UCLA(3-6) at home. The shutout isn't looking so hot right now as UCLA's best win is against 5-5 Stanford. One of those 5 wins was against Washington.
4. W - Wyoming(4-7) at home. Another meaningless shutout. Best win is against a Tennessee team with a lame duck coach. Still a nice win for the MWC!
5. W - at Utah State(2-8). Best win is against Hawaii. Boise State also crushed this team. Rivalry games count a little bit but does Michigan get credit for beating Western Michigan or Central Michigan or Northsoutheastern Michigan?
6. W - New Mexico(4-7) at home. Best win vs. Arizona. Probably the most impressive win for the MWC this year. New Mexico isn't a bad team but they are still 4-7.
7. L - at TCU(9-2). BYU gets blown out and TCU clearly has superior athletes. TCU's best win? Again, Stanford at 5-5 . Their best game is holding Oklahoma to 35 points while losing 35-10 in a game that was over by halftime. TCU might be overrated also.
8. W - UNLV(5-6) at home. BYU wins on a last second touchdown drive. This is BYU's best win to date. Let me repeat. THIS is BYU's best win to date. UNLV had a nice win against an underperforming Arizona State team.
9. W - at Colorado State(4-6.) Another last minute win. This was an important game 10 years ago. Colorado State's best win is UNLV.
10. W - San Diego State(1-9) at home. This was an important game 15 years ago. Have to stop living in the past. Only win is against Idaho. Good thing the MWC has the WAC to beat up on.
Combined record of opponents - 32-60 winning percentage of .347. No wins against a winning team. One blowout loss against a good team. I think Boise State and Ball State would have the same record if they played this schedule. In fact, I bet the top 40 teams would be 9-1 or better if they played this schedule. Does that mean that BYU is a bad team? No, just that they haven't proven anything this year. All of BYU's wins should count as one big win. Ok, perhaps 2 wins. They are like a 2 - 1 team. BYU has three real games left - Air Force today, Utah and then a bowl game. For them to stay ranked at the end of the year, they need to beat Utah. A win at Air Force and then a loss in Utah will only prove that BYU can beat up on mediocre teams but can't hang with the top programs. A 5-1 record after their bowl game would justify their current ranking and not perpetuate the idea that non-BCS teams are ranked too high.
BYU doesn't try to schedule four tough non-conference games because they don't need it to get national recognition. They usually schedule one or two tough non-conference games and two or three cream puffs. BYU is the one team in the non BCS that has the clout to get home at home series against good schools. Most smaller programs have to schedule 2 road games for every one home game against a name brand program. What incentive does a school like Ohio State have to play against Boise State? If they win, they were supposed to win being the BCS school. If they lose, then they suffer the embarrassment of losing to a non-BCS school. BYU doesn't even want to play tough games. If BYU didn't have to play TCU this year, say that they had played SMU and won, they would have a perfect record and probably be ranked in the top 5. If they had scheduled 4 tough non-conference games, they might have gone 2-2 and not be ranked at all. Same team, just different schedules. Which schedule would you choose if you were the athletic director? My gripe is that BYU is the one small conference team that can schedule good teams but they don't, and the teams that want to really can't.
BYU is ranked 14th in the coaches poll, 17th in the BCS but their ranking largely lies in being ranked highly in the preseason from last year's success. BYU fans will boast that they have a very healthy 9-1 record. They are also one of 11 teams in division 1A football with one loss or less. If they win the next two games they will be conference co-champions of the fourth best conference. Their only loss came to an 18th ranked TCU team with a very good defense. All of this is impressive except it disguses their awful schedule. Computer numbers have BYU's strength of schedule as low as 107(Sagarin ratings) which isn't much different than Boise State(115) and Ball State(118.) When the schedule was made, BYU didn't know that Washington was going to the worst team in college football. Same for UCLA being worse than last year. Here is BYU's schedule game by game.
1. W - Northern Iowa at home. Win fodder against an AA team. Every D1A football team other than Michigan beats this team. Can't count this win.
2. W - at Washington(0-9). Close win in the last second against a team that hasn't won a game all year. A win is a win. Washington's closest loss was 35-28 to Stanford.
3. W - UCLA(3-6) at home. The shutout isn't looking so hot right now as UCLA's best win is against 5-5 Stanford. One of those 5 wins was against Washington.
4. W - Wyoming(4-7) at home. Another meaningless shutout. Best win is against a Tennessee team with a lame duck coach. Still a nice win for the MWC!
5. W - at Utah State(2-8). Best win is against Hawaii. Boise State also crushed this team. Rivalry games count a little bit but does Michigan get credit for beating Western Michigan or Central Michigan or Northsoutheastern Michigan?
6. W - New Mexico(4-7) at home. Best win vs. Arizona. Probably the most impressive win for the MWC this year. New Mexico isn't a bad team but they are still 4-7.
7. L - at TCU(9-2). BYU gets blown out and TCU clearly has superior athletes. TCU's best win? Again, Stanford at 5-5 . Their best game is holding Oklahoma to 35 points while losing 35-10 in a game that was over by halftime. TCU might be overrated also.
8. W - UNLV(5-6) at home. BYU wins on a last second touchdown drive. This is BYU's best win to date. Let me repeat. THIS is BYU's best win to date. UNLV had a nice win against an underperforming Arizona State team.
9. W - at Colorado State(4-6.) Another last minute win. This was an important game 10 years ago. Colorado State's best win is UNLV.
10. W - San Diego State(1-9) at home. This was an important game 15 years ago. Have to stop living in the past. Only win is against Idaho. Good thing the MWC has the WAC to beat up on.
Combined record of opponents - 32-60 winning percentage of .347. No wins against a winning team. One blowout loss against a good team. I think Boise State and Ball State would have the same record if they played this schedule. In fact, I bet the top 40 teams would be 9-1 or better if they played this schedule. Does that mean that BYU is a bad team? No, just that they haven't proven anything this year. All of BYU's wins should count as one big win. Ok, perhaps 2 wins. They are like a 2 - 1 team. BYU has three real games left - Air Force today, Utah and then a bowl game. For them to stay ranked at the end of the year, they need to beat Utah. A win at Air Force and then a loss in Utah will only prove that BYU can beat up on mediocre teams but can't hang with the top programs. A 5-1 record after their bowl game would justify their current ranking and not perpetuate the idea that non-BCS teams are ranked too high.
BYU doesn't try to schedule four tough non-conference games because they don't need it to get national recognition. They usually schedule one or two tough non-conference games and two or three cream puffs. BYU is the one team in the non BCS that has the clout to get home at home series against good schools. Most smaller programs have to schedule 2 road games for every one home game against a name brand program. What incentive does a school like Ohio State have to play against Boise State? If they win, they were supposed to win being the BCS school. If they lose, then they suffer the embarrassment of losing to a non-BCS school. BYU doesn't even want to play tough games. If BYU didn't have to play TCU this year, say that they had played SMU and won, they would have a perfect record and probably be ranked in the top 5. If they had scheduled 4 tough non-conference games, they might have gone 2-2 and not be ranked at all. Same team, just different schedules. Which schedule would you choose if you were the athletic director? My gripe is that BYU is the one small conference team that can schedule good teams but they don't, and the teams that want to really can't.
The Mighty Charlotte Bobcats
The Upside of Injuries.
Ugly teams, uglier game. Ugh. The Jazz were missing half their team but they still should have had enough to beat Charlotte's sorry group. The Jazz lost another tight game in the final 2 minutes. We are going to have to reserve judgement on the Jazz for a couple of months as the team is still transitioning. All of these injuries might have a silver lining for a team that is used to being the model of stability in the NBA. Deron Williams wont be at full strength for at least a month and that gives Ronnie Price time to develop into a point guard. We are finding out how good Brevin Knight is. Harpring being injured has given CJ Miles a little bit more playing time. Even Okur leaving for personal matters has given Kosta Koufos a chance to show what he can do. Better that the Jazz experiment now and find out if their guys can play or if they will need somebody else by the trading deadline. Oh, and Collins being injured means that the team can keep him on the bench for the rest of the year.
Harpring was back for the game so that he can continue to run around like a crazy chicken. I love Harpring's energy but at this point he needs to retire. If they keep him, they can use him as "the enforcer." It would be like hockey where they keep a thuggish brute on the team to come in to beat up on the other teams best player. They can bring him in to pull a Robert Horry and hip check star players into the stands and then get thrown out. What else could he do for the team that would be more valuable?
Kosta Koufos got some minutes tonight and really played well for a rookie. He didn't exactly endear himself to coach Sloan by taking the first two shots of the game. Other than that, he was active, blocked shots and rebounded well enough to warrant some more time. He didn't look like a super mega stiff, just a regular stiff which is pretty good. He reminds me of a taller Kris Humphries. Now only if he learns not to shoot every time he touches the ball.
Ronnie Price had his first good game of the year. He was confident and shot well. CJ Miles didn't have good numbers but he did little things well. He doesn't take wild shots and knows how the offense flows. I can see him getting more of minutes through the year. I was happy to see Williams sitting out today, even if meant the difference between a win and a loss. A healthy Williams makes a difference in the last two games. The Jazz lost tonight's game in the last 2 minutes and that is when Williams is at his best. Williams is the one player on the team that can create his own shot, which is crucial when the offense breaks down. Having Williams play too early and risking injuring his ankle to get a couple of wins is shortsighted. I would keep him out for 2 months if his health depended on it.
Did you see that Boozer dunk at the end of the game?
Michael Jordan and Isiah Thomas, great players, terrible front office personnel.
The road trip facing the NBA minor league ( The Eastern Conference) continued last night against the Charlotte Bobcats. Jordan has only been in charge of this team since the summer of 06 and so you can't blame everything on him, but this is a badly assembled team. Jordan isn't the GM, Rod Higgins is, but Jordan is the owner that has the final say on decisions. 3 drafts and so far the first 2 look drafts look like giant busts.
2006, 3d overall pick - Adam Morrison. Great college player but everyone questioned where he was going to fit in the NBA. For a shooter he isn't that great a shooter, he doesn't rebound and he doesn't pass so he is basically useless. He probably is the biggest bust of the '06 draft. The draft overall wasn't deep but they missed out on Brandon Roy(6), Rudy Gay(8), Ronnie Brewer(14), Rajon Rondo(21), Farmar(26). Contrast that with Portland who had three picks in the same draft and ended up with Lamarcus Aldridge, Brandon Roy and Sergio Rodriguez. Of course, Morrison had a good night against the Jazz while I was writing this.
2007, 8th overall pick- Brandan Wright traded for Jason Richardson. 22d overall- Jared Dudley. Wright is young and athletic if he got some playing time in Golden State he might prove that he can play. I used to like Jason Richardson when he was an exciting dunker. Then he fell in love with the three pointer and now he is an inefficient scorer that has a huge contract. Why would you want to pay this guy 12 million dollars to jack up 3 pointers and not do much else? He is the second best player on a bad team, the third on a good team or the best on this team.
Jared Dudley is a hard working back up that will stick in the league somewhere and not a bad pick for late in the first round.
2008, 9th overall pick - DJ Agustin. 20th overall Alexis Ajinca. DJ had a lot of success at Texas and its too early to tell if he was a good pick. The problem is that they have Raymond Felton, the 5th pick from the Deron Williams/Chris Paul draft, who is still developing as a player. Basically they are giving up on Felton, waiting another 2-3 years for Augustin to develop and letting Felton walk at the end of the year. Point guards other than Paul and Williams take time to develop and it isn't fair to compare Felton to those two. Felton is a talented player that will end up being a starter somewhere else.
I don't know anything about Alexis Ajinca but anyone over 7 feet tall has a 90% chance to being drafted in the first round and a 1% chance of being good.
Signings
Why are all contracts five or six years? Even bad players get six year deals. How many players actually stay on their team for six years? Other than stable teams like the Jazz, players worry about a trade as soon as the ink is dry on their contract. There is nothing that handicaps a team more than bad contracts. Isiah's Knicks are a good example. Actually it started with Scott Layden but Isiah decided he could make it worse. If you have a bad draft, you have another lottery pick the next year. If you sign a dud, you have to pay him for the next six years and he goes against your salary cap thus limiting your free agent signings.
Gerald Wallace - 6 years, about 60 million in 2007. Wallace had been underrated for years until he signed this big contract. Now he is over payed. Would be a great player coming off the bench on a playoff team.
Matt Carroll - 6 years, 27 million in 2007. Why are you going to pay an undrafted 3 point specialist 5 million a year? Is the third member of the overpaid white trio along with Brian Cardinal and Brian Scalabrine. They fulfill the secret NBA clause that forces teams to have a scrubby white guy that the fans can get excited about. The Jazz have a reverse clause that limits them to eight or less black players on the team without paying a fine.
Emeka Okafor - 6 years, about 70 million in 2008. Centers are hard to come by Okafor is an intelligent, hard working guy that plays good defense so I can understand this signing. He was the first pick in Bobcat history and a solid citizen but he is going to be a millstone around the neck of this team. He has back problems and even if he averages 15 and 10 with 3 blocks for six years he still wouldn't justify his contract. The Jazz could use a player like him with a better contract.
Ugly teams, uglier game. Ugh. The Jazz were missing half their team but they still should have had enough to beat Charlotte's sorry group. The Jazz lost another tight game in the final 2 minutes. We are going to have to reserve judgement on the Jazz for a couple of months as the team is still transitioning. All of these injuries might have a silver lining for a team that is used to being the model of stability in the NBA. Deron Williams wont be at full strength for at least a month and that gives Ronnie Price time to develop into a point guard. We are finding out how good Brevin Knight is. Harpring being injured has given CJ Miles a little bit more playing time. Even Okur leaving for personal matters has given Kosta Koufos a chance to show what he can do. Better that the Jazz experiment now and find out if their guys can play or if they will need somebody else by the trading deadline. Oh, and Collins being injured means that the team can keep him on the bench for the rest of the year.
Harpring was back for the game so that he can continue to run around like a crazy chicken. I love Harpring's energy but at this point he needs to retire. If they keep him, they can use him as "the enforcer." It would be like hockey where they keep a thuggish brute on the team to come in to beat up on the other teams best player. They can bring him in to pull a Robert Horry and hip check star players into the stands and then get thrown out. What else could he do for the team that would be more valuable?
Kosta Koufos got some minutes tonight and really played well for a rookie. He didn't exactly endear himself to coach Sloan by taking the first two shots of the game. Other than that, he was active, blocked shots and rebounded well enough to warrant some more time. He didn't look like a super mega stiff, just a regular stiff which is pretty good. He reminds me of a taller Kris Humphries. Now only if he learns not to shoot every time he touches the ball.
Ronnie Price had his first good game of the year. He was confident and shot well. CJ Miles didn't have good numbers but he did little things well. He doesn't take wild shots and knows how the offense flows. I can see him getting more of minutes through the year. I was happy to see Williams sitting out today, even if meant the difference between a win and a loss. A healthy Williams makes a difference in the last two games. The Jazz lost tonight's game in the last 2 minutes and that is when Williams is at his best. Williams is the one player on the team that can create his own shot, which is crucial when the offense breaks down. Having Williams play too early and risking injuring his ankle to get a couple of wins is shortsighted. I would keep him out for 2 months if his health depended on it.
Did you see that Boozer dunk at the end of the game?
Michael Jordan and Isiah Thomas, great players, terrible front office personnel.
The road trip facing the NBA minor league ( The Eastern Conference) continued last night against the Charlotte Bobcats. Jordan has only been in charge of this team since the summer of 06 and so you can't blame everything on him, but this is a badly assembled team. Jordan isn't the GM, Rod Higgins is, but Jordan is the owner that has the final say on decisions. 3 drafts and so far the first 2 look drafts look like giant busts.
2006, 3d overall pick - Adam Morrison. Great college player but everyone questioned where he was going to fit in the NBA. For a shooter he isn't that great a shooter, he doesn't rebound and he doesn't pass so he is basically useless. He probably is the biggest bust of the '06 draft. The draft overall wasn't deep but they missed out on Brandon Roy(6), Rudy Gay(8), Ronnie Brewer(14), Rajon Rondo(21), Farmar(26). Contrast that with Portland who had three picks in the same draft and ended up with Lamarcus Aldridge, Brandon Roy and Sergio Rodriguez. Of course, Morrison had a good night against the Jazz while I was writing this.
2007, 8th overall pick- Brandan Wright traded for Jason Richardson. 22d overall- Jared Dudley. Wright is young and athletic if he got some playing time in Golden State he might prove that he can play. I used to like Jason Richardson when he was an exciting dunker. Then he fell in love with the three pointer and now he is an inefficient scorer that has a huge contract. Why would you want to pay this guy 12 million dollars to jack up 3 pointers and not do much else? He is the second best player on a bad team, the third on a good team or the best on this team.
Jared Dudley is a hard working back up that will stick in the league somewhere and not a bad pick for late in the first round.
2008, 9th overall pick - DJ Agustin. 20th overall Alexis Ajinca. DJ had a lot of success at Texas and its too early to tell if he was a good pick. The problem is that they have Raymond Felton, the 5th pick from the Deron Williams/Chris Paul draft, who is still developing as a player. Basically they are giving up on Felton, waiting another 2-3 years for Augustin to develop and letting Felton walk at the end of the year. Point guards other than Paul and Williams take time to develop and it isn't fair to compare Felton to those two. Felton is a talented player that will end up being a starter somewhere else.
I don't know anything about Alexis Ajinca but anyone over 7 feet tall has a 90% chance to being drafted in the first round and a 1% chance of being good.
Signings
Why are all contracts five or six years? Even bad players get six year deals. How many players actually stay on their team for six years? Other than stable teams like the Jazz, players worry about a trade as soon as the ink is dry on their contract. There is nothing that handicaps a team more than bad contracts. Isiah's Knicks are a good example. Actually it started with Scott Layden but Isiah decided he could make it worse. If you have a bad draft, you have another lottery pick the next year. If you sign a dud, you have to pay him for the next six years and he goes against your salary cap thus limiting your free agent signings.
Gerald Wallace - 6 years, about 60 million in 2007. Wallace had been underrated for years until he signed this big contract. Now he is over payed. Would be a great player coming off the bench on a playoff team.
Matt Carroll - 6 years, 27 million in 2007. Why are you going to pay an undrafted 3 point specialist 5 million a year? Is the third member of the overpaid white trio along with Brian Cardinal and Brian Scalabrine. They fulfill the secret NBA clause that forces teams to have a scrubby white guy that the fans can get excited about. The Jazz have a reverse clause that limits them to eight or less black players on the team without paying a fine.
Emeka Okafor - 6 years, about 70 million in 2008. Centers are hard to come by Okafor is an intelligent, hard working guy that plays good defense so I can understand this signing. He was the first pick in Bobcat history and a solid citizen but he is going to be a millstone around the neck of this team. He has back problems and even if he averages 15 and 10 with 3 blocks for six years he still wouldn't justify his contract. The Jazz could use a player like him with a better contract.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Another Winnable Loss on the Road
The Jazz are 1-2 on this road trip and and while they haven't played very well in any of the games, bad teams gives you a chance to win games and all three of these games were winnable games against bad teams. Philadelphia was the "in" pick this year with the Elton Brand signing but they don't look like the team that closed out last year so well. The Jazz looked like they were going to lose to Philadelphia in the third quarter until the second unit came in and saved them. The Jazz are developing confidence in sending in the bench in key moments of the game, sometimes with none of the starters on the floor. As long as Brewer keeps going to the basket, it is really hard to stop him and his slumps wont last long. It is nice to see players other than Boozer and Williams winning games for the Jazz. Brewer took over last night's game and Milsap won one of the Clipper games. Kirilenko again did a nice job off the bench and the Jazz should have the ball run through him in the high post more often.
I don't see the point of rushing Williams back. By the time the playoffs come around, no one is going to remember this road trip. Why risk injuring his ankle again before it is fully healed for a couple of meaningless early season games? I'm not worried about his weak numbers. In a couple of weeks he will be back where he needs to be and back to his normal self. You can see just from a couple of plays the great connection that he has with Boozer. Boozer knows exactly when to make his cut to the basket on the pic and roll. Williams knows exactly when to send the bounce pass. The amazing thing about Boozer is he doesn't pick up a lot of charges. He is excellent at taking the pass and then changing direction around another defender in front of him and getting an easy lay up. There isn't anyone in the NBA that is better at it than Boozer.
The Washington game was just awful, awful, awful. They looked tired. There was no hustle and they made rookie JaVale McGee look like he drinking Comcast high speed with power boost. He was literally everywhere blocking shots and grabbing rebounds. Does anyone other than Paul Milsap get his shot blocked more often than Carlos Boozer? Boozer has a hard time with taller players with long arms and tonight he was blocked at least three times by McGee and Thomas. Kirilenko looked like the AK of two years ago that stood around and took a Valium before games. Is there a reason that he doesn't even jump for rebounds unless the ball is heading straight to him? There was a time when AK looked had McGee's energy with more skill. I said in a previous post that his numbers are near his old numbers except in a couple of categories...blocks, which is down a good block and a half per game and personal fouls. Kirilenko was in foul trouble all the time before because he was so active. If you are going to get blocks, steals and rebounds you will pick up the occasional over the back or foul on a shooter. He doesn't even try to block half the shots he used to go for a couple of years ago. I wonder if he is just less athletic now that he is getting older.
CJ Miles finally had a nice night. During the course of a game, he has that one play that makes you want to believe that he can be really good. You fall in love with how smooth his jumper looks. He has better shot selection this year. I think its because he knows that he has regular minutes and he doesn't have to come in and jack shots to prove that he can play.
Kosta Koufos didn't look as stiff as most first round white stiffs. He shoots jumpers like a basketball player and he walk around like he has cement blocks on his feet. I already declare that he is better than Collins and take all six of his minutes per game. My hopes aren't high that he will ever be more than a career back up.
Korver hasn't had a big game yet. He hasn't played badly but he really hasn't shot the ball that well. I think that fans are just happy that it is Korver coming around screens and not Girecek ready to catch and then be called for travelling.
NBA notes
Washington was 0-5 until getting their first win against the Jazz tonight and that says a lot about this team. Washington has three legitimate stars if Gilbert Arenas plays, but as good as Arenas is, he is not the type of guy that makes his team better. He is the player that you hate playing with because he shoots every time he touches the ball. You have to give him the ball because he is your best player. Problem is that without him, Jamison and Butler just don't have enough to beat most good teams. I'm increasingly convinced that great teams have stars that are two way players. If you look last year's finals teams, Boston and LA are good examples of stars playing good defense. KG's defense carried this team. Paul Pierce's defense on Kobe was one of the biggest reasons they beat LA. Kobe playing tough D sets the tone for the rest of his team and lets them know that they can't slack off and just play offense. Butler is athletic enough to be a great defender but Jamison and Arenas just aren't defensive minded guys. That is what is going to keep this team from being better even when Arenas comes back.
I like Elton Brand. He is a very solid PF who plays hard every night and also plays very good defense. Surprisingly for a guy who isn't a leaper, he blocks a ton of shots. If I were to choose between Carlos Boozer at 10+ million for one year or Brand at 5 yrs 80 million, I would take Boozer but only due to the bloated contract. Brand is the better overall player and is a good citizen but paying Brand like a 1 when he is best suited as a 2 will mean salary cap problems. When I mean 1, I mean a franchise player. 2 meaning the second star on the team. Can you imagine a championship team with Brand as your best player? I can understand what Philadelphia did by overpaying for him with a nice season last year. They probably felt that getting someone like Brand would make them a title contender. They should be able to compete but Brand is a 2, Igualdola is a 3 and so is Miller. Thaddeus Young looks like he is going to be pretty good but are they going to have the money to pay him? Iguadola just signed a new deal, Dalembert is making 11 million a year and Andre Miller is also making 10 million. If they plan on not resigning Miller this next year, Philadelphia will see that Miller was the reason for last year's success.
Next game for the Jazz is against Charlotte and the best chance for a win.
I don't see the point of rushing Williams back. By the time the playoffs come around, no one is going to remember this road trip. Why risk injuring his ankle again before it is fully healed for a couple of meaningless early season games? I'm not worried about his weak numbers. In a couple of weeks he will be back where he needs to be and back to his normal self. You can see just from a couple of plays the great connection that he has with Boozer. Boozer knows exactly when to make his cut to the basket on the pic and roll. Williams knows exactly when to send the bounce pass. The amazing thing about Boozer is he doesn't pick up a lot of charges. He is excellent at taking the pass and then changing direction around another defender in front of him and getting an easy lay up. There isn't anyone in the NBA that is better at it than Boozer.
The Washington game was just awful, awful, awful. They looked tired. There was no hustle and they made rookie JaVale McGee look like he drinking Comcast high speed with power boost. He was literally everywhere blocking shots and grabbing rebounds. Does anyone other than Paul Milsap get his shot blocked more often than Carlos Boozer? Boozer has a hard time with taller players with long arms and tonight he was blocked at least three times by McGee and Thomas. Kirilenko looked like the AK of two years ago that stood around and took a Valium before games. Is there a reason that he doesn't even jump for rebounds unless the ball is heading straight to him? There was a time when AK looked had McGee's energy with more skill. I said in a previous post that his numbers are near his old numbers except in a couple of categories...blocks, which is down a good block and a half per game and personal fouls. Kirilenko was in foul trouble all the time before because he was so active. If you are going to get blocks, steals and rebounds you will pick up the occasional over the back or foul on a shooter. He doesn't even try to block half the shots he used to go for a couple of years ago. I wonder if he is just less athletic now that he is getting older.
CJ Miles finally had a nice night. During the course of a game, he has that one play that makes you want to believe that he can be really good. You fall in love with how smooth his jumper looks. He has better shot selection this year. I think its because he knows that he has regular minutes and he doesn't have to come in and jack shots to prove that he can play.
Kosta Koufos didn't look as stiff as most first round white stiffs. He shoots jumpers like a basketball player and he walk around like he has cement blocks on his feet. I already declare that he is better than Collins and take all six of his minutes per game. My hopes aren't high that he will ever be more than a career back up.
Korver hasn't had a big game yet. He hasn't played badly but he really hasn't shot the ball that well. I think that fans are just happy that it is Korver coming around screens and not Girecek ready to catch and then be called for travelling.
NBA notes
Washington was 0-5 until getting their first win against the Jazz tonight and that says a lot about this team. Washington has three legitimate stars if Gilbert Arenas plays, but as good as Arenas is, he is not the type of guy that makes his team better. He is the player that you hate playing with because he shoots every time he touches the ball. You have to give him the ball because he is your best player. Problem is that without him, Jamison and Butler just don't have enough to beat most good teams. I'm increasingly convinced that great teams have stars that are two way players. If you look last year's finals teams, Boston and LA are good examples of stars playing good defense. KG's defense carried this team. Paul Pierce's defense on Kobe was one of the biggest reasons they beat LA. Kobe playing tough D sets the tone for the rest of his team and lets them know that they can't slack off and just play offense. Butler is athletic enough to be a great defender but Jamison and Arenas just aren't defensive minded guys. That is what is going to keep this team from being better even when Arenas comes back.
I like Elton Brand. He is a very solid PF who plays hard every night and also plays very good defense. Surprisingly for a guy who isn't a leaper, he blocks a ton of shots. If I were to choose between Carlos Boozer at 10+ million for one year or Brand at 5 yrs 80 million, I would take Boozer but only due to the bloated contract. Brand is the better overall player and is a good citizen but paying Brand like a 1 when he is best suited as a 2 will mean salary cap problems. When I mean 1, I mean a franchise player. 2 meaning the second star on the team. Can you imagine a championship team with Brand as your best player? I can understand what Philadelphia did by overpaying for him with a nice season last year. They probably felt that getting someone like Brand would make them a title contender. They should be able to compete but Brand is a 2, Igualdola is a 3 and so is Miller. Thaddeus Young looks like he is going to be pretty good but are they going to have the money to pay him? Iguadola just signed a new deal, Dalembert is making 11 million a year and Andre Miller is also making 10 million. If they plan on not resigning Miller this next year, Philadelphia will see that Miller was the reason for last year's success.
Next game for the Jazz is against Charlotte and the best chance for a win.
Monday, November 10, 2008
The Road Woes Begin
Turnovers
Was there much expectation of a win in NYC? With the Knicks playing reasonably well and the Jazz on the road, they didn't have much of a chance but it was a poor effort for a first game on a road trip. There were too many turnovers yesterday which is reminiscent of last year's games. The Jazz have never been particularly good in the turnover department, but the numbers are actually a little deceiving. The Jazz use an offense involving a lot of cutting and passing and it leads to more assists. They were 2d to the Suns last year in assists per game. They were in the middle of the pack in turnovers per game. Their assist to turnover ratio as a team ranked fifth last year. It makes sense as more assists means more passes. More passes would naturally mean more turnovers. More assists also means a higher shooting percentage, which the Jazz are always near the top. Of note, the teams with better A/T ratios were all teams with solid offensive systems lead by efficient point guards. New Orleans, Phoenix, Detriot and the surprisingly efficient Raptors run by Jose Calderon. In reality, the Jazz could always take care of the ball better and Andre Kirilenko could also throw less passes through three defenders but the Jazz should be praised for their overall ability to take care of the ball.
Addition by Subtraction
Take away 30 million in contracts from one of the worst teams in the NBA and what do you get? A winning team. Dantoni is either crazy or a genius but his sitting of Marbury and Curry is working miracles so far. The Knicks always had talent but never seemed to be able to work well together on the court. This is probably more of a testament to Dantoni's coaching ability and his commitment to a system than proof for Marbury's detractors. It also speaks to the Larry Brown's inability to adapt to his players and Isiah Thomas' complete coaching ineptitude. The team's talent is in offense. Eddy Curry, Zach Randolph, Marbury, Richardson, Crawford, Robinson are offensive players not known for their defense. What Dantoni does is he stops trying to jam square pegs in round holes and just cuts the holes into squares. Genius. What I don't agree with is sitting Marbury. He would run an uptempo team very well and even if you didn't plan to keep him, you could showcase him for 2 months and then trade him after he regains his value. Now the Knicks are going to have to eat his contract, not that they have problem with eating contracts. Duhon is not a starting point guard in this league. Its like the Charlie Ward days all over again. You might get excited if he plays well for one or two games but the next game is going to be a dud. The malady of franchise point guards that lose favor with their coach, lose their confidence and then lose all value should be named Stevie Franchise syndrome. I can't think of 2 players as talented that have diminished so quickly without a physical ailment or substance abuse.
If this Wilson Chandler thing works out, then Dantoni needs to called Einstein, or maybe Michelangelo for his Italian roots and ushering in the Knick renaissance. David Lee is a good, solid, energy PF who does all the dirty work that a team needs. Wilson Chandler is a shorter, less talented version of David Lee. I don't think the Knicks should overpay for David Lee but not playing him isn't going to decrease his market value or help the team.
Was there much expectation of a win in NYC? With the Knicks playing reasonably well and the Jazz on the road, they didn't have much of a chance but it was a poor effort for a first game on a road trip. There were too many turnovers yesterday which is reminiscent of last year's games. The Jazz have never been particularly good in the turnover department, but the numbers are actually a little deceiving. The Jazz use an offense involving a lot of cutting and passing and it leads to more assists. They were 2d to the Suns last year in assists per game. They were in the middle of the pack in turnovers per game. Their assist to turnover ratio as a team ranked fifth last year. It makes sense as more assists means more passes. More passes would naturally mean more turnovers. More assists also means a higher shooting percentage, which the Jazz are always near the top. Of note, the teams with better A/T ratios were all teams with solid offensive systems lead by efficient point guards. New Orleans, Phoenix, Detriot and the surprisingly efficient Raptors run by Jose Calderon. In reality, the Jazz could always take care of the ball better and Andre Kirilenko could also throw less passes through three defenders but the Jazz should be praised for their overall ability to take care of the ball.
Addition by Subtraction
Take away 30 million in contracts from one of the worst teams in the NBA and what do you get? A winning team. Dantoni is either crazy or a genius but his sitting of Marbury and Curry is working miracles so far. The Knicks always had talent but never seemed to be able to work well together on the court. This is probably more of a testament to Dantoni's coaching ability and his commitment to a system than proof for Marbury's detractors. It also speaks to the Larry Brown's inability to adapt to his players and Isiah Thomas' complete coaching ineptitude. The team's talent is in offense. Eddy Curry, Zach Randolph, Marbury, Richardson, Crawford, Robinson are offensive players not known for their defense. What Dantoni does is he stops trying to jam square pegs in round holes and just cuts the holes into squares. Genius. What I don't agree with is sitting Marbury. He would run an uptempo team very well and even if you didn't plan to keep him, you could showcase him for 2 months and then trade him after he regains his value. Now the Knicks are going to have to eat his contract, not that they have problem with eating contracts. Duhon is not a starting point guard in this league. Its like the Charlie Ward days all over again. You might get excited if he plays well for one or two games but the next game is going to be a dud. The malady of franchise point guards that lose favor with their coach, lose their confidence and then lose all value should be named Stevie Franchise syndrome. I can't think of 2 players as talented that have diminished so quickly without a physical ailment or substance abuse.
If this Wilson Chandler thing works out, then Dantoni needs to called Einstein, or maybe Michelangelo for his Italian roots and ushering in the Knick renaissance. David Lee is a good, solid, energy PF who does all the dirty work that a team needs. Wilson Chandler is a shorter, less talented version of David Lee. I don't think the Knicks should overpay for David Lee but not playing him isn't going to decrease his market value or help the team.
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