The polls came out today and the AP poll clearly shows its east coast media bias by placing Penn State 7th and Utah 8th. I can't explain it any other way except that nobody watches Utah on television so they don't know how good they are and Penn State is on TV every week. If you objectively compare their schedules, it would be hard for anyone to claim that Penn State has had the better year.
Same Opponents
Penn State and Utah have both beaten Oregon State and Michigan. Penn State crushed both teams and Utah barely won both games but wins are wins at this point in the season. The Michigan game was also on the road for Utah. Slight edge Penn State
Conference Schedules
The Big Ten is really down this year and Penn State's wins are over an Illini team that just lost to Western Michigan, an OK Purdue team, Wisconson which is the biggest disappointment in the BCS and Ohio State is their signature win, but when was the last time that Ohio State has beaten anyone good? They seem to win the ones they are supposed to win but lose to anyone that has any talent. Penn State even manages to avoid having to play Minnesota and Northwestern, the fourth and fifth best teams in the conference.
On the other hand the MWC is having its best year on record with even Wyoming this week beating Tennesee in Knoxville. Utah has beaten Colorado State, UNLV, New Mexico, and Wyoming which are average teams but not much worse than Penn State's Big Ten schedule. They have a win over a good Air Force squad and their signature win is over TCU this last week.
Edge - Draw
Both teams non conference schedule other than the games mentioned are pretty much cupcakes. Syracuse might be the worst Division IA football program. Did anyone even know that Temple had a football team? Edge - Even
What is nonsensical about all of this is that things are pretty even up till now and then you have to factor in that Penn State has LOST!. They LOST one game and it wasn't even to a good opponent but to an average Iowa team. If Utah lost to even a good team like Air Force, there is no way they would be sniffing the top 10 right now. Penn State loses to a non ranked opponent and they drop only four spots in the rankings? If Utah beats BYU and still ends up being ranked below Penn State, they should just throw the AP polls out for good. At least the AP polls are not used in the BCS rankings. Huge Edge Utah
Sunday, November 9, 2008
Saturday, November 8, 2008
College Fooball Notes
This has been an amazing college football season for non-BCS fans. There are 2 teams in the top 10, both with legitimate chances of being undefeated and playing in a BCS bowl. BYU, TCU and Ball State will be in the top 20 and Air Force will probably be ranked 25th this week. 4 ranked teams in one poll for the MWC would be a milestone that proves to a lot of people that the MWC has really improved. I think a lot of objective people would vote the Mountain West at least the fourth best conference, and maybe even the third.
TCU
TCU will probably fall to about 18-20 after losing to a mentally tough Utah team. I think that they were at a disadvantage having not played any close games recently. All of their games have been blowouts (even the loss against OK and the win vs BYU) and there is a different mentality needed with a game that is close in the fourth quarter. Utah has played close games all season and won and that type of training was vital with pressure situations in the fourth quarter. TCU is probably the better, more talented team but Utah outplayed them in this one game elimination for a spot in the BCS.
UTAH
With Penn State losing today, Utah moves up one spot to the 7th spot and maybe even higher for beating a good team in TCU. With the way the schedule works, Alabama, Texas, and USC look like they will win out their seasons and so will only move up. The loser of the OK-Texas Tech game will drop below Utah. Florida has a mildly tough game left in Florida State, but they should win that. Utah will probably still be ranked 7th and BYU ranked 12th or so when they play in two weeks. This is assuming that BYU beats Air Force on the road, which might not happen. I haven't looked it up, but I am assuming that this is the highest that both teams will be ranked while playing each other, which will make this rivalry game even more exciting. Too bad nobody will see it except the four people who subscribe tho the MTN.
BCS scenarios
I expect Utah to beat BYU, but do they have any chance to get into the Championship game? What happens if Oklahoma beats Texas Tech but then loses to Ok State. Oklahoma would be eliminated with 2 losses. Texas wins the Big 12 south division and plays in the BIG 12 championship game. Losing to Missouri would make them a 2 loss team. If Alabama beats Florida to win the SEC championship game, then Florida would also have 2 losses. That would leave only USC to leap frog and comparing the resumes and conferences of the two schools, Utah would have as good or better of an argument than USC. Utah would boast wins over BYU, TCU, Air Force and Oregon State, winning the MWC which is stronger than the Pac 10 this year and an undefeated record. USC has wins over Ohio State, Oregon and Cal, but lost to Oregon State and the MWC has owned the PAC 10 this year. I'm not saying that Utah is better than USC but that their body of work over the course of the year would be more deserving than USC. There are a lot of big IF's in this little scenario but it is amazing that a non-BCS school has a plausible chance to play in the championship game this late in the year.
BYU
BYU is in an interesting position as it looked like they were done after the TCU loss and somehow the computers have resurrected them in the BCS polls. The jumped from 20 to 15 with a sorry win over Colorado State and we will see where they are this week. Perhaps at 13-14 with Georgia nearly losing, OK state now with 2 losses and TCU with 2 losses. If BYU beats Air Force, then like I mentioned before BYU plays Utah ranked 12th or so and Utah 7th. They would most likely end up in the top 12 in the BCS polls but would they leap frog an undefeated Boise State team? Probably not and while theoretically BYU would be the second non BCS qualifier, there is no way that a BCS bowl would pick BYU over Ohio State, Georgia, or Missouri. Too bad that not being chosen is going to mean the Las Vegas Bowl. Why can't BYU end up in a bowl game vs Michigan State, LSU or North Carolina and prove that they can hang with the BCS? The Mountain West undervalues itself by binding their conference winners to play fourth place teams in the PAC-10.
Playoff vs Current System
With Obama mentioning an eight team playoff, the buzz about a new system is gaining strength again. What teams this year would get into an eight team playoff? Would it be conference winners or would it be by polls? As bad as the BCS system is, I don't see any how an eight team playoff would be any better for getting non-BCS in the mix. Would Utah even make it to an eight team playoff this year? I actually think that a guaranteed spot for non-BCS teams for a BCS bowl is about as equitable as it needs to be. The Big 12 and SEC actually get cheated out of a spot in a bowl game by having their conference championship games. A small conference like the Big East with only eight mediocre teams benefits the most as you have a higher chance of winning the conference championship (1/8 is better than 1/12.) I think the fact that Boise State has a legitimate shot at a BCS bowl coming from the WAC, when if they were in any other conference they wouldn't be conference champs, is very generous.
TCU
TCU will probably fall to about 18-20 after losing to a mentally tough Utah team. I think that they were at a disadvantage having not played any close games recently. All of their games have been blowouts (even the loss against OK and the win vs BYU) and there is a different mentality needed with a game that is close in the fourth quarter. Utah has played close games all season and won and that type of training was vital with pressure situations in the fourth quarter. TCU is probably the better, more talented team but Utah outplayed them in this one game elimination for a spot in the BCS.
UTAH
With Penn State losing today, Utah moves up one spot to the 7th spot and maybe even higher for beating a good team in TCU. With the way the schedule works, Alabama, Texas, and USC look like they will win out their seasons and so will only move up. The loser of the OK-Texas Tech game will drop below Utah. Florida has a mildly tough game left in Florida State, but they should win that. Utah will probably still be ranked 7th and BYU ranked 12th or so when they play in two weeks. This is assuming that BYU beats Air Force on the road, which might not happen. I haven't looked it up, but I am assuming that this is the highest that both teams will be ranked while playing each other, which will make this rivalry game even more exciting. Too bad nobody will see it except the four people who subscribe tho the MTN.
BCS scenarios
I expect Utah to beat BYU, but do they have any chance to get into the Championship game? What happens if Oklahoma beats Texas Tech but then loses to Ok State. Oklahoma would be eliminated with 2 losses. Texas wins the Big 12 south division and plays in the BIG 12 championship game. Losing to Missouri would make them a 2 loss team. If Alabama beats Florida to win the SEC championship game, then Florida would also have 2 losses. That would leave only USC to leap frog and comparing the resumes and conferences of the two schools, Utah would have as good or better of an argument than USC. Utah would boast wins over BYU, TCU, Air Force and Oregon State, winning the MWC which is stronger than the Pac 10 this year and an undefeated record. USC has wins over Ohio State, Oregon and Cal, but lost to Oregon State and the MWC has owned the PAC 10 this year. I'm not saying that Utah is better than USC but that their body of work over the course of the year would be more deserving than USC. There are a lot of big IF's in this little scenario but it is amazing that a non-BCS school has a plausible chance to play in the championship game this late in the year.
BYU
BYU is in an interesting position as it looked like they were done after the TCU loss and somehow the computers have resurrected them in the BCS polls. The jumped from 20 to 15 with a sorry win over Colorado State and we will see where they are this week. Perhaps at 13-14 with Georgia nearly losing, OK state now with 2 losses and TCU with 2 losses. If BYU beats Air Force, then like I mentioned before BYU plays Utah ranked 12th or so and Utah 7th. They would most likely end up in the top 12 in the BCS polls but would they leap frog an undefeated Boise State team? Probably not and while theoretically BYU would be the second non BCS qualifier, there is no way that a BCS bowl would pick BYU over Ohio State, Georgia, or Missouri. Too bad that not being chosen is going to mean the Las Vegas Bowl. Why can't BYU end up in a bowl game vs Michigan State, LSU or North Carolina and prove that they can hang with the BCS? The Mountain West undervalues itself by binding their conference winners to play fourth place teams in the PAC-10.
Playoff vs Current System
With Obama mentioning an eight team playoff, the buzz about a new system is gaining strength again. What teams this year would get into an eight team playoff? Would it be conference winners or would it be by polls? As bad as the BCS system is, I don't see any how an eight team playoff would be any better for getting non-BCS in the mix. Would Utah even make it to an eight team playoff this year? I actually think that a guaranteed spot for non-BCS teams for a BCS bowl is about as equitable as it needs to be. The Big 12 and SEC actually get cheated out of a spot in a bowl game by having their conference championship games. A small conference like the Big East with only eight mediocre teams benefits the most as you have a higher chance of winning the conference championship (1/8 is better than 1/12.) I think the fact that Boise State has a legitimate shot at a BCS bowl coming from the WAC, when if they were in any other conference they wouldn't be conference champs, is very generous.
Friday, November 7, 2008
What does thunder have to do with Oklahoma City?
Do you know anyone that has been to Oklahoma city, wants to go to Oklahoma City or will ever go to Oklahoma City? Few cities with major sports franchises inspire less reason to visit than Oklahoma City. Other than the OK City bombing, does anyone know anything about this city? I'm not even a typical northeasterner that has never been to the Midwest and I still had barely heard of it. I've lived in the Midwest for six years and I was surprised to find out that it has about 500,00 people, which is quite comparable to Boston and much larger than Salt Lake. Sacramento and Green Bay are two other cities with a sports team where I wouldn't even be curious to stop for gas.
Switching cities, especially from Seattle which has a good basketball history and television market to a completely new place seems ill conceived. It isn't that basketball can't survive in smaller markets because it can - as proven by the Jazz and Kings - but moving doesn't cure all of your ills. Teams in smaller markets have to be smarter. They have less leeway to have lean years as your revenue sources aren't as large. You have less room to make a bad signing because of smaller television contracts and lower ticket prices. I know that there were a lot of reasons for this latest move but if Seattle was consistently in the playoffs, Ok City would never have happened. How many years does a team get before it has to leave down again because it isn't winning, which really means poor management. You can't blame the city and the fans but you have to blame the owner and the GM for making poor moves. Ask Memphis when people are going to be sick of losing and it is going to become the Shanghai Sharks of the global NBA?
The Jazz got a pretty easy victory tonight with the whole team contributing. Ok just doesn't have anyone consistent on a night to night basis. Durant is talented and in 2 more years he will be good. I'm not sure what his career will look like as he was predicted to be a future Hall of Famer but early returns don't look as promising. I am thinking more of a 3-4 time all star that leads his team in scoring but doesn't do much else, like a Jerry Stackhouse. Jeff Green looks like he can become a good third option in a couple of years. This team could use some veteran big men to do the dirty work inside and a solid team first point guard like Brevin Knight to get the ball to the young guys. Playing Earl Watson, a career backup, starters minutes isn't going to help improve anyone.
Knight is doing an amazing job running this team right now. Price isn't playing badly but you wonder what is going to happen when Williams comes back. Nobody played badly tonight and everyone contributed. I don't think I give Boozer enough credit for putting up the solid numbers that he does. He doesn't shoot 20 times a game to get his points and he looks for the ball when the team needs to score. He gets his points so easilly, like he hardly works for it. Kirilenko is playing very well and the 2 things that show that he is playing like the old AK are his rebounds and free throws. It means that he is spending more time near the basket instead of camping outside. He had only had three games with double digit rebounds and only 3 double doubles last year, terrible for a guy that is 6-9 and has had years of averaging over 8 a game. Tonight he marked his 2d of each in the young season. Of note, he and Peja Stojakovic are tied for most unintelligible post game interview. I wonder if an American playing overseas has ever done a post game interview in the native language of that country? Sometimes I see soccer players giving interviews in multiple languages and it would be nice to see an American doing that for once. At least in bad broken Spanish with an American accent.
No reason to get too excited about this 5-0 start, beatin up on bad teams at home is a Jazz specialty. Now the Jazz get some tougher games on this next five game road trip. For some reason the Jazz always play poorly against the Knicks and I can see a close loss but it is probably their best bet for a win. If they took 2 out of 5 by beating Charlotte and Washington it would be a successful road trip. The Washington and Cleveland games are back ends of back to backs so it wouldn't surprise me they didn't play well in either game. The team has been together long enough that is should start to win against the bad teams on the road.
Looking at 82games.com, there was a revised +/- list for all players this last season and there are a couple of surprises for the Jazz. I like the +/- rating because there so many things that you can't measure through ordinary stats. Things like tipped passes that lead to an eventual shot clock violation, shots altered instead of blocked or a hustle play that demoralizes the other team are not counted on paper. I think you can capture some of that in a +/- rating and I like how they broke it down into offense and defense. Leading the offense was Steve Nash and with his passing ability that makes sense, even more sense then a big time scorer. For the Jazz, AK came out on top. The team did seem to play its best when he was on the floor. I thought for sure that Williams or Boozer would have the best offensive numbers but in general I think that anybody that watches a lot of Jazz games can see appreciate what AK can do.
Switching cities, especially from Seattle which has a good basketball history and television market to a completely new place seems ill conceived. It isn't that basketball can't survive in smaller markets because it can - as proven by the Jazz and Kings - but moving doesn't cure all of your ills. Teams in smaller markets have to be smarter. They have less leeway to have lean years as your revenue sources aren't as large. You have less room to make a bad signing because of smaller television contracts and lower ticket prices. I know that there were a lot of reasons for this latest move but if Seattle was consistently in the playoffs, Ok City would never have happened. How many years does a team get before it has to leave down again because it isn't winning, which really means poor management. You can't blame the city and the fans but you have to blame the owner and the GM for making poor moves. Ask Memphis when people are going to be sick of losing and it is going to become the Shanghai Sharks of the global NBA?
The Jazz got a pretty easy victory tonight with the whole team contributing. Ok just doesn't have anyone consistent on a night to night basis. Durant is talented and in 2 more years he will be good. I'm not sure what his career will look like as he was predicted to be a future Hall of Famer but early returns don't look as promising. I am thinking more of a 3-4 time all star that leads his team in scoring but doesn't do much else, like a Jerry Stackhouse. Jeff Green looks like he can become a good third option in a couple of years. This team could use some veteran big men to do the dirty work inside and a solid team first point guard like Brevin Knight to get the ball to the young guys. Playing Earl Watson, a career backup, starters minutes isn't going to help improve anyone.
Knight is doing an amazing job running this team right now. Price isn't playing badly but you wonder what is going to happen when Williams comes back. Nobody played badly tonight and everyone contributed. I don't think I give Boozer enough credit for putting up the solid numbers that he does. He doesn't shoot 20 times a game to get his points and he looks for the ball when the team needs to score. He gets his points so easilly, like he hardly works for it. Kirilenko is playing very well and the 2 things that show that he is playing like the old AK are his rebounds and free throws. It means that he is spending more time near the basket instead of camping outside. He had only had three games with double digit rebounds and only 3 double doubles last year, terrible for a guy that is 6-9 and has had years of averaging over 8 a game. Tonight he marked his 2d of each in the young season. Of note, he and Peja Stojakovic are tied for most unintelligible post game interview. I wonder if an American playing overseas has ever done a post game interview in the native language of that country? Sometimes I see soccer players giving interviews in multiple languages and it would be nice to see an American doing that for once. At least in bad broken Spanish with an American accent.
No reason to get too excited about this 5-0 start, beatin up on bad teams at home is a Jazz specialty. Now the Jazz get some tougher games on this next five game road trip. For some reason the Jazz always play poorly against the Knicks and I can see a close loss but it is probably their best bet for a win. If they took 2 out of 5 by beating Charlotte and Washington it would be a successful road trip. The Washington and Cleveland games are back ends of back to backs so it wouldn't surprise me they didn't play well in either game. The team has been together long enough that is should start to win against the bad teams on the road.
Looking at 82games.com, there was a revised +/- list for all players this last season and there are a couple of surprises for the Jazz. I like the +/- rating because there so many things that you can't measure through ordinary stats. Things like tipped passes that lead to an eventual shot clock violation, shots altered instead of blocked or a hustle play that demoralizes the other team are not counted on paper. I think you can capture some of that in a +/- rating and I like how they broke it down into offense and defense. Leading the offense was Steve Nash and with his passing ability that makes sense, even more sense then a big time scorer. For the Jazz, AK came out on top. The team did seem to play its best when he was on the floor. I thought for sure that Williams or Boozer would have the best offensive numbers but in general I think that anybody that watches a lot of Jazz games can see appreciate what AK can do.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Utah vs. Portland
Portland game notes
It was good to see the Jazz rally from a fourth quarter deficit to win the game, even without Deron Williams. Four games down and Brevin Knight is already stealing minutes from Ronnie Price. The second unit will run much better than last year. The Knight trade was one of those bottom of the transaction wire type deals that most people don't notice. Championship teams have role players who know their role. Fans are enamored with Price's athleticism but a good back up PG is someone who plays within himself. Price hasn't been playing badly but he often tries to do too much. You get the feeling that he doesn't know how to slow himself down just yet. Price has a place in the NBA but it isn't for more than 15 minutes a game or his weaknesses get exposed. Knight ran the team well when they needed a run to come back in the game. The offense was well balanced tonight and Memo had his first good shooting game.
AK turned the ball over but at least he was active. You can tell because he went to the line a lot. He is most effective when he is around the basket and draws fouls. So far his numbers for the first four games are very similar to his averages from 3 years ago when he was playing well so the sixth man role has been working out well but I wonder if his touches are going to go down when Williams comes back and more of the offense runs through him.
Williams will make the teams offense run much more efficiently. Their shooting percentages have been lower than usual and they have been playing at a slower pace than last year and number wise have been giving up less points but I'm not sure that means better defense.
The Iverson/Billups deal
I'm not sure what motivated the deal other than the fact that both teams needed to shake things up. It was a lateral move for both clubs but if I were to pick a winner, It would be Denver. Denver has a nice lineup except that they were playing Anthony Carter starter's minutes at the point when he really isn't a starter. Billups is a solid point guard. He does most things well without being spectacular at anything. On a good team he is your third best player like he was on Detroit. His problem is that he signed a big long term deal and he is not as young as it seems. He developed so late in his career that he has only been a star in the league for five years but he is already turning 32 this year and point guards have a habit of slowing down at this age unless you are John Stockton.
Denver is a talented team that doesn't fit well together. It is a classic situation where the whole is worth less than the sum of its parts. Iverson was just another expensive piece that didn't fit well and it is smart to start selling parts because this team is not going anywhere but the bottom of the playoff race. The team seems directionless. In the summer they give away Camby for free and now they get a veteran point guard that has already seen his best years. Why not trade Iverson for youngsters, picks and expiring contracts to build for the future? If you trying to make a run with this team, why not keep Camby?
Detroit now has three guys that like to shoot first in Iverson, Stuckey and Hamilton. Hamilton can score but almost gives you nothing else. Stuckey can score but I doubt he can come in to be the primary point guard. Iverson is a pretty good passer but he hasn't succeeded at the PG spot in the past and he isn't going to now. Detroit is at the same place that the Suns, Dallas and Spurs are, teams that have had their window close and now are good veteran teams that will win fifty games and look good losing in the second round of the playoffs. Dumars gets credit for being a good GM but if he had picked Bosh, Wade or Melo instead of Darko, this team could have been repeat champs. He was given a slam dunk and he missed it and the one miss probably cost the Pistons one or maybe more championships. Sometimes you look back at the draft and your team was picking 20th and you end up with a dud and wished that they got the second round steal that everyone missed. The problem with that is that you didn't have much of chance to get an impact player with the 20th pick, but missing out on a superstar with the 2d pick sets your team back 10 years. One is buying a lottery ticket and then losing, the other is winning the lottery and then losing the ticket.
NBA notes
San Antonio almost went to 0-4 but needed a heroic effort from Parker to get a win against the Twovles. Duncan and Parker took 62 shots between the two of them and scored 85 points but still needed double OT to win. SA is not this bad but the rest of the team looks like they are ready to retire. Matt Bonner getting major minutes is a bad sign. When they get Ginobili back they are still a 50 win team but you still need role players to win in the playoffs.
Boston looked good winning in Houston the other night. Yao has problems with guys that body him. He loses his balance quickly and Perkins did a great job of pushing him the whole night. Boston with its defense can win with KG only averaging 15 points a game.
It is early but Durant has not looked good. I thought he would start the season shooting better and rebounding better like he finished last year but he is not doing much on a bad team. I wonder if there is just too much pressure for him to produce as he is the star on a young team in a new city.
Go Hawks! When was the last time that the Hawks were 3-0? They just beat New Orleans on the road and have wins against two potential playoff teams, Orlando and Philadelphia. They will definitely have a long losing streak mid season but perhaps if they have enough of a cushion it wont hurt kill their playoff chances.
It was good to see the Jazz rally from a fourth quarter deficit to win the game, even without Deron Williams. Four games down and Brevin Knight is already stealing minutes from Ronnie Price. The second unit will run much better than last year. The Knight trade was one of those bottom of the transaction wire type deals that most people don't notice. Championship teams have role players who know their role. Fans are enamored with Price's athleticism but a good back up PG is someone who plays within himself. Price hasn't been playing badly but he often tries to do too much. You get the feeling that he doesn't know how to slow himself down just yet. Price has a place in the NBA but it isn't for more than 15 minutes a game or his weaknesses get exposed. Knight ran the team well when they needed a run to come back in the game. The offense was well balanced tonight and Memo had his first good shooting game.
AK turned the ball over but at least he was active. You can tell because he went to the line a lot. He is most effective when he is around the basket and draws fouls. So far his numbers for the first four games are very similar to his averages from 3 years ago when he was playing well so the sixth man role has been working out well but I wonder if his touches are going to go down when Williams comes back and more of the offense runs through him.
Williams will make the teams offense run much more efficiently. Their shooting percentages have been lower than usual and they have been playing at a slower pace than last year and number wise have been giving up less points but I'm not sure that means better defense.
The Iverson/Billups deal
I'm not sure what motivated the deal other than the fact that both teams needed to shake things up. It was a lateral move for both clubs but if I were to pick a winner, It would be Denver. Denver has a nice lineup except that they were playing Anthony Carter starter's minutes at the point when he really isn't a starter. Billups is a solid point guard. He does most things well without being spectacular at anything. On a good team he is your third best player like he was on Detroit. His problem is that he signed a big long term deal and he is not as young as it seems. He developed so late in his career that he has only been a star in the league for five years but he is already turning 32 this year and point guards have a habit of slowing down at this age unless you are John Stockton.
Denver is a talented team that doesn't fit well together. It is a classic situation where the whole is worth less than the sum of its parts. Iverson was just another expensive piece that didn't fit well and it is smart to start selling parts because this team is not going anywhere but the bottom of the playoff race. The team seems directionless. In the summer they give away Camby for free and now they get a veteran point guard that has already seen his best years. Why not trade Iverson for youngsters, picks and expiring contracts to build for the future? If you trying to make a run with this team, why not keep Camby?
Detroit now has three guys that like to shoot first in Iverson, Stuckey and Hamilton. Hamilton can score but almost gives you nothing else. Stuckey can score but I doubt he can come in to be the primary point guard. Iverson is a pretty good passer but he hasn't succeeded at the PG spot in the past and he isn't going to now. Detroit is at the same place that the Suns, Dallas and Spurs are, teams that have had their window close and now are good veteran teams that will win fifty games and look good losing in the second round of the playoffs. Dumars gets credit for being a good GM but if he had picked Bosh, Wade or Melo instead of Darko, this team could have been repeat champs. He was given a slam dunk and he missed it and the one miss probably cost the Pistons one or maybe more championships. Sometimes you look back at the draft and your team was picking 20th and you end up with a dud and wished that they got the second round steal that everyone missed. The problem with that is that you didn't have much of chance to get an impact player with the 20th pick, but missing out on a superstar with the 2d pick sets your team back 10 years. One is buying a lottery ticket and then losing, the other is winning the lottery and then losing the ticket.
NBA notes
San Antonio almost went to 0-4 but needed a heroic effort from Parker to get a win against the Twovles. Duncan and Parker took 62 shots between the two of them and scored 85 points but still needed double OT to win. SA is not this bad but the rest of the team looks like they are ready to retire. Matt Bonner getting major minutes is a bad sign. When they get Ginobili back they are still a 50 win team but you still need role players to win in the playoffs.
Boston looked good winning in Houston the other night. Yao has problems with guys that body him. He loses his balance quickly and Perkins did a great job of pushing him the whole night. Boston with its defense can win with KG only averaging 15 points a game.
It is early but Durant has not looked good. I thought he would start the season shooting better and rebounding better like he finished last year but he is not doing much on a bad team. I wonder if there is just too much pressure for him to produce as he is the star on a young team in a new city.
Go Hawks! When was the last time that the Hawks were 3-0? They just beat New Orleans on the road and have wins against two potential playoff teams, Orlando and Philadelphia. They will definitely have a long losing streak mid season but perhaps if they have enough of a cushion it wont hurt kill their playoff chances.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Road Warriors
The Jazz get their first road victory of the season against a Clipper team that is going absolutely nowhere. The Clippers go from 47 wins and taking the Suns to seven games in the Western Conference Semis in 05-06 to this team with a completely new roster and is already 0-4. The franchise seemed liked it was going the right direction with Elton Brand but even with the addition of Baron Davis and Camby, this team isn't going anywhere near the playoffs. Davis is a guy that gets the money he is making because he does things as a point guard that no one else can do but he isn't a great leader, he gets injured all the time and if you were going to rebuild, might as well have passed on Davis for a better free agent next year or the year afterwards. Even with a full squad, the team looks like one that is going to get beaten up by the rest of the West. Thornton is going to be a nice player. Kaman at times can look like a top 5 center but he sure is a black hole. At least he plays hard. Camby needs to be on a contending team at this point to make an impact. I still think a team like the Jazz would be perfect but he is making 10 million and salary doesn't fit.
Obviously Milsap isn't going to go crazy like he did the other night every night but he is an underrated scorer. I feel like the Jazz under utilize him only giving him 20 minutes a game but its is hard to find minutes at the PF spot. Boozer needs minutes as he is so efficient down low and watching Kirilenko play more around the basket when Boozer is out lets him score more around the basket and not force him to fling wild jumpers. Kirilenko again played well but you can see that he does all of his damage on most nights with his ability to get easy shots near the basket. He can still rebound when he needs to but he can't be floating waiting for kick outs to do that. You wonder about the future of the team as Boozer is going to be a free agent this next year and then the team is going to lose Boozer for nothing. You have to think that if you can package Boozer and Almond in a deal for a center that the team would end up coming out ok from this situation. AK could go back and play the PF with Milsap playing more minutes making them both more effective. I'm not sure what is going to happen with Memo this summer but it would be nice to be able to resign him at less then what he is making now.
I like Ronnie Price but by mid season Knight might end up taking all of his minutes. He is just more efficient as a point guard, doesn't take wild shots and doesn't hold the ball till the end of the shot clock. Price is going to have improve his shooting but think pass more which you can tell is not his first inclination. Knight is a natural point guard and knows his limitations as as shooter which makes him the perfect fit for a Jerry Sloan offense.
Obviously Milsap isn't going to go crazy like he did the other night every night but he is an underrated scorer. I feel like the Jazz under utilize him only giving him 20 minutes a game but its is hard to find minutes at the PF spot. Boozer needs minutes as he is so efficient down low and watching Kirilenko play more around the basket when Boozer is out lets him score more around the basket and not force him to fling wild jumpers. Kirilenko again played well but you can see that he does all of his damage on most nights with his ability to get easy shots near the basket. He can still rebound when he needs to but he can't be floating waiting for kick outs to do that. You wonder about the future of the team as Boozer is going to be a free agent this next year and then the team is going to lose Boozer for nothing. You have to think that if you can package Boozer and Almond in a deal for a center that the team would end up coming out ok from this situation. AK could go back and play the PF with Milsap playing more minutes making them both more effective. I'm not sure what is going to happen with Memo this summer but it would be nice to be able to resign him at less then what he is making now.
I like Ronnie Price but by mid season Knight might end up taking all of his minutes. He is just more efficient as a point guard, doesn't take wild shots and doesn't hold the ball till the end of the shot clock. Price is going to have improve his shooting but think pass more which you can tell is not his first inclination. Knight is a natural point guard and knows his limitations as as shooter which makes him the perfect fit for a Jerry Sloan offense.
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Mountain West and the BCS
Occasionally I will post about something other than the NBA and this weekend after seeing Texas Tech beat Texas, I wanted to write about college football and the polling system. I actually like the polls, I've always liked the polls. I've liked waiting for the new polls to come out to see who was going to move up and move down and the new teams each week getting ranked. The lack of science behind it, along with the bias of voting on teams that coaches and writers know well and don't know well make it fun to see what other people are thinking. It's like reading an interesting opinion piece from another part of the country except that opinion then turns into fact. Some of the fun of the selection committee for the NCAA basketball tourney is that they have to make decisions, human decisions to determine what teams get in and are left out and it is not purely determined by wins and losses. Cinderella, after all is a love story and computers have never fallen in love.
The top three in the polls I don't have any issue with - BCS conference teams with undefeated records - SEC, BIG TEN and BIG12 but then you have a whole bunch of one loss teams before you get to Utah. Now if there was an undefeated team in the Big East, ACC or PAC 10 where would they rank at this point in the season? I imagine somewhere between 4 and 7 but not as low as UTAH. Does that make sense when the MWC is probably at worst the fourth best conference this year? Why does USC get so much respect even though it plays in a very bad PAC 10 this year? Why is OK state ranked as high as it is? Both TCU(Oklahoma and BYU) and OK ST(Missouri and Texas) played 2 top 10 teams and both went 1-1 but OK state is ranked even higher than a undefeated Utah team. Perhaps it is because the toughest part of the MWC schedule has yet to come, with Utah and TCU playing this week and BYU and Utah playing later on but if Utah goes undefeated in the MWC, it shouldn't be ranked lower than any one loss program this year. I'm not saying that should hold true every year but when your conference plays out of conference BCS teams and wins like the MWC has, has three teams in the top 20 and you go undefeated and you are not even mentioned in the championship talk, then there is a problem with the system. If TCU, BYU and Utah all end up with one loss in conference play, it would be nice if one of them were rewarded with a BCS bowl for playing in a tougher conference. If not, then why not be the best school in a bad conference like Boise State and just win out?
As much as people would like to believe that the poll reflects only the current year, that has never really been the case. It is a composite of the past five to ten years with the added benefit of history if your school has a good football pedigree. You saw it this year at how quickly schools like Alabama and Penn State jumped into the polls just for starting the season 4 and 0 against terrible non conference opponents. It is like pollsters want to rank these guys and as soon as any small reason to justify it comes up, they get ranked. Notre Dame wins 2 or 3 games in a row and people are talking about ranking them. Good example this year is Florida State. A one loss Florida State team that beats up on bad teams gets ranked ahead of BYU last week and then this week they get exposed and lose but somehow still manage to hang on in the polls. That is history taking care of its own. Boise State is a beneficiary of its recent success. Coaches and the media see it as a credible program and even though it has only beaten a mediocre Oregon team and plays in a very weak conference, it is ranked as high as it is due to its five year record. That win against Oklahoma is still paying dividends for them almost three years later. I suspect that if it was San Jose State that was undefeated with the same wins, they would be ranked closer to where Ball State is ranked.
In reality there are only about 20 schools that can be in the championship game and none of them are in the non BCS. BYU was perhaps the notable exception due to the confluence of a couple of factors. One, due to having 2 good seasons in a row, the school was ranked well in the preseason. Two, the Mountain West turned out to be a lot better than the ACC, BIG EAST and the PAC 10 which legitimizes their regular season. Three, and maybe most importantly, it has a national following and has won a national championship which puts history on their side - meaning that pollsters don't see it as an affront to college football to have them play in a big game. The bottom line is that schools without a legacy of football greatness playing well is embarrassing for the college football elite, like a down season of sorts and the powers that be are not ready to relinquish what they feel they have earned. Even though 2 non-BCS teams can qualify for BCS bowls, and this year two will definitely qualify, there will never be more than one due to lost revenue and pressure from BCS conferences to protect their own teams.
The MWC might end up shooting itself in the foot by Utah beating TCU this week and then losing to BYU in the final week. BYU, TCU and Utah in that order will be ranked in the top 20 but behind Boise State. What if BYU beats a 6th ranked Utah team on the final weekend and jump from 13 to 9? Will a one loss team make it to a BCS bowl? In theory, all three MWC teams could qualify for the BCS and so could Boise State. Sadly the second and third places prizes are the disgusting Las Vegas Bowl and even worse the Poinsettia Bowl. Can't the MWC get some decent deals?
The top three in the polls I don't have any issue with - BCS conference teams with undefeated records - SEC, BIG TEN and BIG12 but then you have a whole bunch of one loss teams before you get to Utah. Now if there was an undefeated team in the Big East, ACC or PAC 10 where would they rank at this point in the season? I imagine somewhere between 4 and 7 but not as low as UTAH. Does that make sense when the MWC is probably at worst the fourth best conference this year? Why does USC get so much respect even though it plays in a very bad PAC 10 this year? Why is OK state ranked as high as it is? Both TCU(Oklahoma and BYU) and OK ST(Missouri and Texas) played 2 top 10 teams and both went 1-1 but OK state is ranked even higher than a undefeated Utah team. Perhaps it is because the toughest part of the MWC schedule has yet to come, with Utah and TCU playing this week and BYU and Utah playing later on but if Utah goes undefeated in the MWC, it shouldn't be ranked lower than any one loss program this year. I'm not saying that should hold true every year but when your conference plays out of conference BCS teams and wins like the MWC has, has three teams in the top 20 and you go undefeated and you are not even mentioned in the championship talk, then there is a problem with the system. If TCU, BYU and Utah all end up with one loss in conference play, it would be nice if one of them were rewarded with a BCS bowl for playing in a tougher conference. If not, then why not be the best school in a bad conference like Boise State and just win out?
As much as people would like to believe that the poll reflects only the current year, that has never really been the case. It is a composite of the past five to ten years with the added benefit of history if your school has a good football pedigree. You saw it this year at how quickly schools like Alabama and Penn State jumped into the polls just for starting the season 4 and 0 against terrible non conference opponents. It is like pollsters want to rank these guys and as soon as any small reason to justify it comes up, they get ranked. Notre Dame wins 2 or 3 games in a row and people are talking about ranking them. Good example this year is Florida State. A one loss Florida State team that beats up on bad teams gets ranked ahead of BYU last week and then this week they get exposed and lose but somehow still manage to hang on in the polls. That is history taking care of its own. Boise State is a beneficiary of its recent success. Coaches and the media see it as a credible program and even though it has only beaten a mediocre Oregon team and plays in a very weak conference, it is ranked as high as it is due to its five year record. That win against Oklahoma is still paying dividends for them almost three years later. I suspect that if it was San Jose State that was undefeated with the same wins, they would be ranked closer to where Ball State is ranked.
In reality there are only about 20 schools that can be in the championship game and none of them are in the non BCS. BYU was perhaps the notable exception due to the confluence of a couple of factors. One, due to having 2 good seasons in a row, the school was ranked well in the preseason. Two, the Mountain West turned out to be a lot better than the ACC, BIG EAST and the PAC 10 which legitimizes their regular season. Three, and maybe most importantly, it has a national following and has won a national championship which puts history on their side - meaning that pollsters don't see it as an affront to college football to have them play in a big game. The bottom line is that schools without a legacy of football greatness playing well is embarrassing for the college football elite, like a down season of sorts and the powers that be are not ready to relinquish what they feel they have earned. Even though 2 non-BCS teams can qualify for BCS bowls, and this year two will definitely qualify, there will never be more than one due to lost revenue and pressure from BCS conferences to protect their own teams.
The MWC might end up shooting itself in the foot by Utah beating TCU this week and then losing to BYU in the final week. BYU, TCU and Utah in that order will be ranked in the top 20 but behind Boise State. What if BYU beats a 6th ranked Utah team on the final weekend and jump from 13 to 9? Will a one loss team make it to a BCS bowl? In theory, all three MWC teams could qualify for the BCS and so could Boise State. Sadly the second and third places prizes are the disgusting Las Vegas Bowl and even worse the Poinsettia Bowl. Can't the MWC get some decent deals?
Jazz 2-0!
The Jazz are 2-0 so far and haven't looked great but wins are wins, especially in the early going where anything can happen and the Jazz have had a history of starting slowly. Boozer has been the primary offensive focus and he has been aggressive and effective with 2 strong double doubles. Usually taller players give him a hard time but he is just two quick for anyone on the Clips to guard him and nobody on Denver plays defense except Camby and now he is on the Clips. I've always thought someone like Camby would be a perfect fit for the Jazz and seeing as how cheaply he went for in the off season, I wonder if the Jazz could have worked something out. He would be their answer to the Hornets Tyson Chandler, a big guy that could block shots, grab boards and occasionally take some shots. Camby can dominate a game defensively and he would be really effective going against a team like the Lakers.
AK - AK looked good so far in the two games but I wish he would get more than 9 shots a game. He needs to be more aggressive and have his teammates convey to him that it is ok to be more aggressive. He is a guy that needs touches for him to feel like he is being effective and last season he took 7 measly shots a game and by the end of the season was only playing 25 minutes a game. I like having him play the end of the first and thirds and all of the second and fourth, he should end up with 32 minutes a game and if he would take at least 10-11 shots I think all of his numbers would be up without shooting a worse percentage, getting more blocks, steals and rebounds.
Team Minutes - Brewer is so good around the basket and just from the couple of shots he took, his J looks improved, or at least his confidence in it is improved. They need to find him more minutes, not just the 1st and 3d quarters. He is too good of a scorer without the ball for him not to get 30 minutes a game. Same goes with Milsap when he is not in foul trouble. Both are energetic, play active defense and don't need plays called for them. It seems like every time Milsap gets extended minutes he puts up great numbers and his per minute averages of blocks and steals are also excellent for a team that needs interior defense. The problem is that Korver needs minutes too and now that you gave CJ all this money he needs minutes too. Good thing that Collins and Harpring are injured or Sloan would put them into the game. Those guys get minutes because they know the system and play hard defense, not necessarily good defense but hard defense. Brewer and Milsap have been here long enough to know the system and play hard enough that they should take their minutes this season. Milsap might have to play more back up center to get his minutes.
I don't think it benefits the Jazz long term to be playing more than 10 players a night. There are a young team that needs to time to develop and giving minutes to guys that are well past their primes is not thinking long term. Collins should never see another minute on this team, let alone in the league. Harpring should should sign on to a NFL team that needs a linebacker. Fesenko or Koufos should get all of Collins minutes this season.
Morris Almond - I'm not sure what to think about Almond and not reupping his contract. He looks like he has enough talent to stay in the league because he shoots well and there is always a place for a shooter. Almond will probably be a specialist, a three point shooter who gets 10-15 minutes a game to space the floor. The Jazz in the past always needed a guy like that but now they have Korver and Korver is bigger and probably the better shooter anyway. Oh, and he is white and that earns points with the Jazz since they are historically the whitest team in the NBA. Looking back at the 2007 draft, the only player that was drafted after Almond that I wished they would have picked would be Marc Gasol. I remember watching the draft that year and thinking that Gasol was a steal at that low and with good NBA genes, why he wasn't more highly regarded. This year on the Grizzlies, he is easily going to get 10-10 and starters minutes.
Back to Almond, the Jazz basically are going to have to package him or lose him for nothing. I suspect they trade him for rights to a future late one or early two.
Price and Knight. Knight was always a perfect guy for the Jazz system. He doesn't like to shoot and can pass well, how many other point guards are like that? That is why a guy like Jacque Vaughn stuck around here so long and a guy like Carlos Arroyo was booted out of here despite having a lot more talent. Ronnie Price is a fun player to watch but he has to understand his role on this team. He has lots of guys who can score and so he shouldn't be going 2-8. If he is going to have a bad shooting night he needs to be 0-4 with 6 assists. If he wants to stick on this team, he is going to learn to discipline himself and also needs to shoot the 3 at a higher percentage.
AK - AK looked good so far in the two games but I wish he would get more than 9 shots a game. He needs to be more aggressive and have his teammates convey to him that it is ok to be more aggressive. He is a guy that needs touches for him to feel like he is being effective and last season he took 7 measly shots a game and by the end of the season was only playing 25 minutes a game. I like having him play the end of the first and thirds and all of the second and fourth, he should end up with 32 minutes a game and if he would take at least 10-11 shots I think all of his numbers would be up without shooting a worse percentage, getting more blocks, steals and rebounds.
Team Minutes - Brewer is so good around the basket and just from the couple of shots he took, his J looks improved, or at least his confidence in it is improved. They need to find him more minutes, not just the 1st and 3d quarters. He is too good of a scorer without the ball for him not to get 30 minutes a game. Same goes with Milsap when he is not in foul trouble. Both are energetic, play active defense and don't need plays called for them. It seems like every time Milsap gets extended minutes he puts up great numbers and his per minute averages of blocks and steals are also excellent for a team that needs interior defense. The problem is that Korver needs minutes too and now that you gave CJ all this money he needs minutes too. Good thing that Collins and Harpring are injured or Sloan would put them into the game. Those guys get minutes because they know the system and play hard defense, not necessarily good defense but hard defense. Brewer and Milsap have been here long enough to know the system and play hard enough that they should take their minutes this season. Milsap might have to play more back up center to get his minutes.
I don't think it benefits the Jazz long term to be playing more than 10 players a night. There are a young team that needs to time to develop and giving minutes to guys that are well past their primes is not thinking long term. Collins should never see another minute on this team, let alone in the league. Harpring should should sign on to a NFL team that needs a linebacker. Fesenko or Koufos should get all of Collins minutes this season.
Morris Almond - I'm not sure what to think about Almond and not reupping his contract. He looks like he has enough talent to stay in the league because he shoots well and there is always a place for a shooter. Almond will probably be a specialist, a three point shooter who gets 10-15 minutes a game to space the floor. The Jazz in the past always needed a guy like that but now they have Korver and Korver is bigger and probably the better shooter anyway. Oh, and he is white and that earns points with the Jazz since they are historically the whitest team in the NBA. Looking back at the 2007 draft, the only player that was drafted after Almond that I wished they would have picked would be Marc Gasol. I remember watching the draft that year and thinking that Gasol was a steal at that low and with good NBA genes, why he wasn't more highly regarded. This year on the Grizzlies, he is easily going to get 10-10 and starters minutes.
Back to Almond, the Jazz basically are going to have to package him or lose him for nothing. I suspect they trade him for rights to a future late one or early two.
Price and Knight. Knight was always a perfect guy for the Jazz system. He doesn't like to shoot and can pass well, how many other point guards are like that? That is why a guy like Jacque Vaughn stuck around here so long and a guy like Carlos Arroyo was booted out of here despite having a lot more talent. Ronnie Price is a fun player to watch but he has to understand his role on this team. He has lots of guys who can score and so he shouldn't be going 2-8. If he is going to have a bad shooting night he needs to be 0-4 with 6 assists. If he wants to stick on this team, he is going to learn to discipline himself and also needs to shoot the 3 at a higher percentage.
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