Fat Chicken Face

Hornets vs. Jazz. Paul vs. Williams

2009-01-07T11:06:00.000-08:00

The Jazz played the Hornets last night and it was the first match up between two teams that were supposed to be title contenders. The Hornets are doing their part as they are percentage points ahead of San Antonio for second in the West. The Jazz have been disappointing this year and are currently ninth in the West and out of the playoffs but that can be attributed to injuries. The Jazz looked good last night and played a well balanced team game. The Hornets were tired and this was basically a scheduling loss as they came off a tough win over LA the night before.

Current records aside, these teams have a lot similarities other than the obvious Williams and Paul comparisons. They are two young teams that have the talent to be contenders and are maturing at similar rates. They both gained valuable playoff experience last year and set the foundation for future expectations. Both teams are lead by young point guards drafted 3d and 4th in 2005. Both teams have all star power forwards as the second half of their lead duos. Jerry Sloan and Byron Scott both have gone to the NBA finals twice and lost both times.

I will compare Paul and Williams but before we get to that, lets compare the rest of the rosters.

Carlos Boozer vs David West - Both average similar numbers, Boozer being 21, 11, and 3 assists with very efficient shooting numbers. David West gets 20, 7 and 1 block a game. He shoots nearly .500 and is almost 90% from the free throw line. Boozer gets his points on post ups, mid range jumpers and pick and roll lay ups. He is more of your typical power forward that bangs with guys down low. West can go down low but prefers the 10-15 foot jumper and can go out to the three point line. Boozer is a much better rebounder and can get tough rebound in traffic which West cannot. He is also an underrated passer. West is pretty much a black hole but West is a better defender. Boozer has a history of strange injuries but West has had tough time with injuries as well. The bottom line is that salaries aside, If the Jazz offered Boozer for West straight up, the Hornets would do the deal in a heartbeat. Boozer is an Olympian, West is a fringe all star. Advantage Jazz

Mehmet Okur vs Tyson Chandler - very different players that play the same position. Chandler can't shoot at all and has no offensive game other than to catch alley oops. He is lean, long and athletic and you wish that he could harness his skills to be a dominant center. He had a break out year last year but he still hasn't justified being the 2d overall pick. He makes his money on the defensive end and by rebounding but is too foul prone. He is also a bit of a head case. Okur is practically the opposite player. He makes his money by shooting long jumpers and has added a little dribble drive to his game. He needs to lose a couple of pounds, can't jump at all and looks more like a writer than an athlete. His defense consists of waving people by and yelling "toro" and then hacking them so they don't get a lay up. Would the Jazz trade Okur for Chandler? I think they would. The Hornets might like that trade too. Very small edge Jazz.

Ronnie Brewer and CJ Miles vs Rasul Butler and Morris Peterson - Good thing Morris Peterson went to the Hornets so Brewer got minutes to develop the way that he did over the past year. Brewer is getting better but still has some holes that he needs to plug. His jumper is still unreliable. He gets steals but his on ball defense is lackluster. He can't dribble or create his own shot which is essential in a league of 2 guards that score at will. Butler and Peterson are good shooters that stretch defenses but don't do much otherwise. Butler and Miles are similar but on different ends of their careers. Miles is young enough that potential is his biggest asset. Butler is a solid pro that is happy being on a winner. Advantage Jazz

Kyle Korver vs Peja Stojakovic - Peja is a shell of his old self, now surviving in the league purely on his shot. When his shot is off, he is useless. He is a poor defender, doesn't rebound or pass well and is getting worse each year. If Korver played the same minutes as Stojakovic, they would have the exact same stats. 12 points, 40% from three and not so great from 2, good FT shooter. Stojakovic has playoff experience, Korver is younger and not getting worse each year. Small edge Hornets this year, next year advantage Jazz.

Andrei Kirilenko vs James Posey - Posey was a nice pick up but I think they overpaid for him. Posey is the kind of pick up you make when you are one piece away - like the Celtics were last year - but the Hornets are not one piece away. They are one piece away now that they have Posey. He is tough defender and good 3pt shooter that provides a toughness that you cant measure by numbers, but more by championships. Kirilenko is overpaid but has been playing pretty well off the bench. He does a lot of things that is difficult to measure by traditional numbers. His true value can be seen by stats like PER and +/- numbers. Posey is on the downside of his career and has one or two good years left. Kirilenko is getting worse but is only 27 and capable of still being a starter. Advantage Jazz

Rest of the Bench
Devin Brown, Hilton Armstrong, Melvin Ely and Antonio Daniels - Daniels was a great pick up. He can back up both guard positions, he has experience and he plays good defense. Devin Brown is a Jazz cast off that is inconsistent. Hilton Armstrong and Melvin Ely are first round busts that take up space. Julian Wright is supposed to be talented but he hardly plays. This team misses Pargo for instant offense off the bench. The Hornets really only go seven deep.

Paul Milsap, Kosta Koufos, Ronnie Price and Brevin Knight.
Milsap is already having a break out year and might be better than West in a couple of years. It makes me sick that he didn't get these minutes last year. Koufos is already better than Armstrong or Ely. Price is really undersized shooting guard. Knight does a good job in limited minutes. Advantage Jazz

Coach Sloan vs. Scott.
Byron Scott is a good coach and did anice job before he got run out of town in NJ. He took a team that had no history of success to two NBA finals. Granted, those were two of the weakest eastern conferences in history and two of the worst NBA finals ever, but the NBA finals are the NBA finals. Sloan is already a legend. I don't agree with a lot of his player management decisions but he is a proven winner. Advantage Jazz

Looking at the comparisons, the Jazz have an edge at almost every position but their record last year do not bear that out. Last year at full strength, the Hornets ended up with two more wins than the Jazz. This year is hard to compare as the Jazz have had so many injuries. Still, with the Jazz being younger, deeper, with more playoff experience and a better coach, are the Jazz underachievers or the Hornets overachievers? The answer lies in Paul vs. Williams.

Paul vs Williams.
Let me start by saying that I am a big fan of Williams and feel that he hasn't yet reached his full potential. Bill Simmons wrote an article at the beginning of the year that was recently cited by the Salt Lake Tribune that said that Williams and Paul really isn't an argument, Paul clearly being the better player. That angered a lot of Utah fans but he is on the money with a lot of what he wrote. An argument can be made that Williams is the better player but most numbers say otherwise.

Williams has a few advantages over Paul. He is bigger and stronger which lets him guard the bigger point guards and can post up smaller guards like Paul. In head to head match ups, Paul has had trouble guarding him in the post and has had foul trouble. Williams is a very good mid range and 3 point shooter. Paul has improved his shooting this year but still would prefer to go to the basket than take a 15 footer.
Paul is a much better penetrator and can get to the basket almost at will. He creates so many problems, drawing defenders and scoring when he a second defender isn't quick enough to get to him. Even then, Paul is athletic enough to finish and is the better finisher of the two. He also gets a slight edge in passing with more assists and less turnovers.
Just comparing statistics, the two are very similar. Since Williams has been injured this year we will use their 07-08 per game averages.

Williams 37 min 18.8pts 3.0 rbs 10.5 ast 1.1 stl 3.4 to .507 fg .395 3fg .803 ft
Paul 37 min 21.1pts 4.0 rbs 11.6 ast 2.7 stl 2.5 to .488 fg .369 3fg .851 ft

The scoring difference of 2.3 pts is explained by Paul taking 2.4 more shots per game. The biggest disparity is in steals. Paul currently leads the league in steals while Williams is probably a little below average for point guards. While these statistics don't show much of gap between the two, using other statistics it becomes more obvious.

In the age of "Moneyball" in baseball, basketball has its own equivalents of advanced statistics which help analyze players better than traditional stats. These can be found on http://www.basketball-reference.com/ and http://www.82games.com/

Season	Age	Tm	Lg	G	M	PER	TS%	eFG%	ORB%	DRB%	TRB%

Williams 2007-08	23	UTA	NBA	82	3059	20.8	.595	.544	1.4	8.3	4.9

Williams 2007-08

UTA

NBA

3059

20.8

.595

.544

1.4

8.3

4.9

Paul 2007-08	22	NOH	NBA	80	3006	28.3	.576	.524	2.4	10.3	6.2

Paul 2007-08

NOH

NBA

3006

28.3

.576

.524

2.4

10.3

6.2

AST% ▾	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	ORtg	DRtg	OWS	DWS	WS

43.6	1.5	0.6	17.7	23.1	118	110	9.0	2.3	11.4

43.6

1.5

0.6

17.7

23.1

118

110

9.0

2.3

11.4

A couple of differences stand out. One is PER which is a rating created by ESPN's John Hollinger that tries to put one number on a players total performance. For an explanation of what it means, click below
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&id=2850240

Williams PER of 20.8 is a very good PER. PER is curved to have an average of 15 so Williams is well above the average and is 20th overall for the year. Paul's PER of 28.3 was 2d to Lebron James and is 38th overall ALLTIME.

Another number that stands out is Win Shares. This is a stat that basically measures the number of wins a player is responsible for by himself for the year. Williams WS of 11.4 is excellent and his best year to date. Paul's WS of 17.3 lead the league last year and was 18th ALLTIME. Offensive rating, defensive rating, assist percentage, steal percentage all bear out the disparity between the two stars. These stats do not say that Williams is bad and that Paul is good. These statistics say that William is good and Paul is great. It also says that Paul's 07-08 season wasn't just great, but historic. The amazing thing is that Paul is even better this year with his PER over 30!

Finally if the statistics don't convince you, then the team comparison should. The Jazz are even or have an edge at every position outside of point guard. So how did the Hornets win 2 more games last year than the Jazz? The Hornets only have an advantage at point guard and as Jazz fans we would like to believe that advantage isn't that great. The truth is that Paul is worth about six more wins a year than Williams. Paul is the great difference maker on that team and if the Hornets were to offer Paul for Williams straight up, it would be a clear no brainer. Am I happy that the Jazz have Williams? Of course. I love Williams and I think his best years are yet to come as point guards don't peak till their late 20's. He might end up a top 20 point guard of all time. I am certainly glad that they didn't take the 5th pick Raymond Felton that same year. Do I wish that they took Chris Paul with the 3d pick instead of Williams? Only a fool would say no. Paul might end up being a top 5 point guard of all time. In fact, it might be the difference between being yearly contenders for the title, and the Jazz winning their first championship.

Utah's case for a national title

2009-01-02T20:38:00.000-08:00

Did you catch any of the pre-game show before the Sugar Bowl? If you did, then you basically saw the announcers say that the Utes weren't in the same class as Alabama. Most of the country agreed and even die hard Ute fans weren't crazy enough to predict more than a close victory. Barry Switzer echoed the sentiments of most pundits when he said that Alabama wouldn't even have recruited a single one of the Ute players. The funny thing is that he's right. The recruits that Utah and teams in the MWC get are not the nationally ranked players that go to play at Alabama and the SEC. Tonight's game showed what a team can accomplish versus individual talent. This game doesn't mean that Utah has more talented players, but it does mean that Utah is the better team.

The final score for the game doesn't even tell the whole story. If you started watching in the second half when Alabama made it 21-17, you might think that these were two evenly matched teams heading into the fourth quarter. The truth is that Utah DOMINATED this game. Brain Johnson played one of the best games of his career and lead a precise passing attack. Alabama never got any pressure on him and so he had all day to throw. Their receivers made exceptional plays for big gains in the first quarter and seemed to get the extra yards they needed for first downs. The SEC is supposed to be known for its defense but their defense was really a non factor in this game. They looked slow, they missed tackles and didn't make the stops they needed to make.

There were many surprising aspects of this game but Utah's defense was astounding. They looked like they were playing against a slow BYU team the way that they were beating Alabama's O-line. Their overall team speed was impressive and the way they forced John Parker Wilson into making bad throw after bad throw was the difference maker. Alabama would put a couple of good plays together and then Utah would get a sac that killed their drive. Utah's secondary also played well and there were at least three balls that were easy interceptions that Utah defenders dropped that would have blown this game out. The crazy thing is that Utah is only the second fastest defense in the MWC.

The knock against smaller conferences is that they don't have the athletes to compete with bigger conferences. It wasn't the case here as Utah was so much faster on both sides of the ball and I don't think it was an intensity issue. I know that Alabama must have been disappointed to not be in the Championship game but that was weeks ago and if you can't get up for playing in the Sugar Bowl then you probably shouldn't have been invited to be there. Another wrinkle to this victory is that it was practically a road game for Utah. The game was in SEC country and Nick Saban has a lot of fans down in Louisiana for his work at LSU. Utah doesn't have a national following like Alabama and the crowd was decidedly crimson. The near silence in the fourth quarter was all you needed to hear about the power of this victory. If you played this game five more times, Utah would win four of them.

National Title hopes
Utah numerically has no chance at winning the national title but now you wonder how they would fare against Florida or Oklahoma. Honestly, I don' t think that they would beat either of those teams, or even beat USC but we'll never know and there is beauty in that. Ute fans can forever feel like they were robbed of a chance at the national title and end the season on a high instead of feeling disappointed. No one remembers second place but people will remember an undefeated season and the belief that they could have won the national title will stay with them forever.

Looking a little closer at the resumes of Utah, Oklahoma and Florida
Oklahoma has played a great schedule and has a very impressive resume.
Their wins against bowl teams are (rankings)
1.Cincinnati ( 12) 55-26 H
2.TCU (11) 35-10 H
3.Texas Tech (7) 65-21 H
4.Oklahoma State (13) 61-41 R
5.Missouri (21) 62-21 N
6.Kansas (NR) 45-31 H
7.Nebraska (NR) 62-28 H
They lost to 3d ranked Texas 45-35. The stunning thing about their wins are the numbers that they put up. The destroyed good teams by whopping margins. People in the MWC know that TCU is a good squad and if you watched the game, it was over before at the end of the first quarter. They did play 5 sub .500 teams to pad their win total but they thoroughly demolished those teams too. This is a team that not just beat but killed really good teams and lost close to one great team.

Florida also played a quality schedule as seen by the number of bowl teams on the list but they don't have as many wins against good teams. Their loss vs Miss is looking better than it did a couple of weeks ago as Miss finished strong but the loss was at home and it still isn't like losing to 3d ranked Texas.
1.Alabama (4) 31-20 N
2.Georgia (15) 49-10 R
3.Florida State (NR) 45-15 R
4.LSU (NR) 51-21 H
5.Vanderbilt (NR) 42-14 R
6.Kentucky (NR) 63-5 H
7.South Carolina (NR) 56-6 H
8.Miami (NR) 26-3 H
9.Hawaii (NR) 56-10 H
Loss to Miss 31-30 H
Florida gets credit for having played a lot of tough games for the duration of the season. Something that gets overlooked is how tough it is mentally to prepare yourself each week for a good team vs every once in a while. As you look closely, you notice that a lot of their wins are not against the upper echelon teams and their best wins are a close win against Alabama and a disappointing Georgia team. Hawaii and Miami squeaked into bowl games and both lost to mediocre opponents.

I have gone over Utah's record in previous posts, in summary
Alabama (4) 31-17 R
TCU (11) 13-10 H
BYU (16) 48-24 H
Oregon State (NR) 31-28 H
Air Force (NR) 30-23 R
Colorado State (NR) 49-16 H
Ok, not super impressive but more impressive than any previous non-BCS team. It really would have helped Utah if Michigan was good this year and they didn't play Weber and Utah state. Regardless, if you compare the three teams wins, I think Oklahoma's looks the most impressive but how much is loss worth? Or how many good wins is worth a loss? Or better how many good wins does it take to erase a loss? 1 good win, 2, 3 good wins cancel out a loss? Hard to say. Utah has better top tier wins than Florida. It also played three less bowl eligible teams but it also didn't suffer a loss. I think it is clear that Oklahoma has the better resume vs. Florida but between Utah and Florida it isn't as clear. It all depends on what a loss is worth.

Milsap making a case for starters minutes

2008-12-17T18:07:00.000-08:00

Utah Jazz fans have known for the last 2 years that Paul Milsap was good but did they know that he was this good? The rest of the league has taken notice with his recent promotion to starter as his coming out party. He has started the last 12 games with Boozer being out and his numbers make you wonder who should start when Boozer gets healthy. 12 games - 18.7 pts, 11.7 rbs, 2.5 assists, 2 steals and 1 block per night. He's also has 12 straight double doubles (13 if you include tonight's Nets game.) Those are some impressive numbers for an undersized 6-7 PF that was taken in the 2d round.

You look at him now and you wonder how he slipped to the second round but undersized PF's aren't highly regarded by NBA scouts. At some point scouts are going to have to catch on that tough guys that are a little short are better than taller guys with no heart. Craig Smith, Leon Powe, and Jason Maxiell are guys that can play but weren't highly regarded due to their size. If you can play, there is a place for you in the league. Milsap and these guys have proven themselves but bad GM's will continue to take untested 7 footers over them. Part of the problem is that if someone takes Milsap in the first round, you get blasted for taking a guy that doesn't physically fit the mold of an NBA PF. You can gamble in the second round, so if Milsap ends up a bust then nobody remembers. A lot of teams out there that wish that they could have had Milsap. He went 47th in the 06 draft but if you did it all over again, only Aldridge, Roy, Gay, Brewer and Rondo would be taken ahead of him.

MIlsap overcomes his limitations with tremendous energy and a knack for being around the ball. He doesn't usually out jump his opponents but finds himself in the right spot at the right time. Especially on the offensive glass, he seems to know where the ball is going instead of having to fight for the ball. Not that he can't fight for the ball, which he also does very well. His activity on offense also translates to defense. Bigger players can shoot over him but he does force them to take jumpers instead of getting to the basket. One number that sticks out is the 2 steals a game. His hands are extremely active and he regularly deflects interior passes. When he plays with Brewer, AK and Knight, the Jazz have their best defensive unit capable of making stops.

Boozer himself was a second round pick so he knows a thing or two about making the most of your opportunities. They get their points in different ways, Boozer with a variety of pick and rolls, elbow jumpers and post moves while Milsap gets rewarded for his constant hustle with put backs and cuts to the basket. Milsap is developing a jump shot and is only getting better each year. As I have alluded to in previous posts, Boozer is really important for this offense to run smoothly. He gets his points against good defenders and has an uncanny connection with Williams. He commands double teams which Milsap has yet to see and is also a better interior passer. Boozer is an all star, an Olympic team member and when he comes back it will make big difference but you have to wonder if he is going to stay here next year.

The team next year is going to look quite different with all of the free agents on the team. With his previous history and Miami being a lot nicer than Salt Lake, I wouldn't feel safe until Boozer signs on the dotted line. Boozer is opting out and is probably looking for Elton Brand money - 5 years 80 million so having Milsap is good insurance. Would you rather commit 15+ million for five years to Boozer or sign Milsap for 5-6 years at 6-8 million a year and have money left over for someone else? Even with Boozer, this team is missing a player to be championship level so I don't know if it would be wise to throw big money to a guy who isn't taking you to the finals.

Williams is the franchise now and paying Boozer 15 million a year will only hurt this team in the long run. I would rather pay Milsap 50% of Boozers money and get 80% of his production. It would be great if they didn't lose Boozer for nothing but bad contracts ruin franchises and the Jazz already have AK's bad contract. The Jazz are usually pretty frugal so I can't imagine them breaking the bank for Boozer. In the end, it will be good for Milsap and good for the Jazz.

Celtics Jazz game notes

2008-12-17T09:20:00.000-08:00

I went to the Boston vs. Utah game the other night and although the game was moderately close the whole night, the Celtics were clearly on a different level than the Jazz. Rondo and Perkins played excellent games and it was obvious that Rondo was quicker than anyone else on the floor. I'm not sure if it was his ankle or not, but Williams looked like he was standing still when he was trying to guard Rondo. He could get into the lane anytime that he wanted and didn't have to take a jump shot all night. You have to play off of Rondo and make him a jump shooter to take him out of his game but that is easier said that done. Rondo has all the tools to be a Devin Harris type point guard with better defense if he learned to hit the jumper. He is still young but NBA players stop developing after a while and this is already his 4th year so I wonder if he will ever learn to shoot well.

Looking at the box score, it looks like the big 3 had decent nights but the game told a different story. Ray Allen's shot was definitely off and he was passing up open jumpers most of the night. Paul Pierce struggled but he takes enough shots that he scores double figures. I liked how the Jazz put AK on him in the 4th which frustrated him. The hidden story was Garnett. He was 8-13 for 19pts, 10 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals, 2 blocks - a very efficient line but he looked unstoppable. He did whatever he wanted and virtually scored whenever he wanted. He never forced a shot, always looked to pass out of double teams and if he shot more, he could have easily scored 30. His game was effortless yet intense and you can tell that he lets his teammates shine when its possible. He is averaging only 13 shots a game and only 16pts, 9.6 boards - all career lows since his rookie year but his impact on the team might be at its peak. I watch a lot of Celtic games since I live in Boston and he is a player where the numbers do not tell the whole story. He could easily get 25, 12 and 5 if he forced his game. The Celtics win because he doesn't.

Paul Milsap
Milsap had a career night the other night. Most of his points came on cuts to the basket, I bet that he was assisted on half his points but he hit some jumpers that I didn't know that he had in his arsenal. He hit a fade away 20 footer that had the fans in Boston thinking that Karl Malone came out of retirement. He has a great touch around the basket and he is efficient, only taking shots that come to him in the offense. Other than some silly fouls, he plays tough defense and gets steals and blocks that Boozer doesn't even try for. When Boozer comes back, I don't know who you take off the floor between Boozer, Okur and Milsap at the end of games. Okur is money at the end of the game but he makes a bettert matador the way he plays defense. Boozer never comes up with big plays on defense and Milsap plays hard but is undersized. You have to have 2 way players at the end of games to make stops in close games and Milsap is the only one of the three that can do that.

The MWC Bowling league

2008-12-13T18:29:00.000-08:00

I have never understood why bowl games were such a big deal when there are 30+ bowl games. That means that over 60 of the FBS schools get "rewarded" with a bowl game. The other thing is that bowl game names change every few years when the sponsoring company's stock tanks. You don't know if a bowl game is important because it isn't the same bowl game anymore.

The bowl season is about to begin and the MWC has 5 of their 9 teams playing in the college post season. Just like the regular season, these bowl games have more meaning for the MWC than they have in the past. It's like the team that has a great regular season and then flames out in the playoffs. Those teams are remembered as either overrated or chokers - both labels that the MWC don't want hanging on them till next year. Having a winning record in bowl games will go a long way in establishing themselves as a premiere conference.

MWC bowl games

New Mexico Bowl
At Albuquerque
Payout: $750,000
Colorado State (6-6) vs. Fresno State (7-5), 2:30 p.m. (ESPN)

This is one lame bowl game. Does anyone care who wins this one? Fresno State was a major disappointment and you wonder what would have happened if they had beaten Wisconsin earlier in the year. Colorado State isn't exactly a world beater but it did have to finish well to get into this bowl game. It is nice to see them get out of the MWC basement as they used to be a football power. This is a toss up but maybe the fact that it is being played in MWC territory will help declare a victor.

Las Vegas Bowl
Payout: $1 million
BYU (10-2) vs. Arizona (7-5), 8 p.m. (ESPN)

Back to the Las Vegas Bowl again. BYU can't be very excited to be going back to sin city when they had designs on the BCS. In the end, this isn't a bad place for BYU to land. It is practically a home game for BYU with so many fans going down from Utah. They play a weak Arizona team that has already lost to New Mexico earlier this year which means more victory fodder for BYU. They will get credit for beating another PAC-10 squad and go 3-0 for the year against BCS conference teams. I expect them to squeeze out a close victory which is better than getting embarrassed by a good team. There is always next year.

Poinsettia Bowl
At San Diego
Payout: $750,000
Boise State (12-0) vs. TCU (10-2), 8 p.m. (ESPN)

This is the best bowl matchup outside of the title game and will mean a lot in establishing the Mountain West as the best non-BCS conference. TCU with its speedy defense vs. Boise State putting up crazy points makes it even more interesting. I'm surprised that Boise State took this bowl game. The payout is relatively meager and there are large risks with playing TCU. Boise State is undefeated and ranked in the top 10 but they can't shake the feeling that it is all due to playing in a weak conference. TCU has the defense to shut Boise State's offense down and if they look bad here then they will be exposed as the cream puff beaters that they are. If the win, well they were expected to win because they are undefeated. A loss would also prove that Boise State wouldn't have gone undefeated if they played in the MWC, let alone in a bigger conference. TCU might end up being ranked in the final top 10. I've been betting against Boise State all season and I will bet against them again with TCU stomping them like the stomped BYU.

Armed Forces Bowl
At Fort Worth, Texas
Payout: $750,000
Houston (7-5) vs. Air Force (8-4), Noon (ESPN)

This is a rematch of a close regular season game that Air Force won in Houston. Well the game isn't in Houston but it is in Texas and I imagine it will be favoring the Lone Star representative. Houston has a good offense and really has only one bad loss. They have good wins against Tulsa and East Carolina and other then their slip up to Marshall, their losses come from Air Force, Colorado State, Ok State and Rice. This one will probably be close but Air Force has been consistent in beating the teams that they are supposed to beat and I expect more of the same.

Sugar Bowl
At New Orleans
Payout: $17 million
Utah (12-0) vs. Alabama (12-1), 8 p.m. (FOX)

This is another great game for the MWC. Alabama was the number one team till the last week of the season so this isn't the Pitt team that they trashed in 2005. This is the second best team in the SEC, a top 5 team and was one game away from the national championship. They have a ton of history and a big name coach in Nick Saban to boot. No one in the national media thinks that Utah is legitimate and Alabama will have all of the pressure on them to win. The knock on non-BCS teams is that they play weak schedules but if they beat Alabama which went undefeated in the SEC regular season, it would strongly propose that that Utah could have done the same in a major conference. That will also boost both BYU and TCU as their losses have come from Utah.

Look closely at Alabama's schedule and you will see that it wasn't as tough as you would suspect coming from an SEC team. They have played 3 ranked teams other than Florida. They are Georgia - a former number one that really flamed out, LSU - showed its true colors by the end of the season falling out of the polls and Clemson which finished 7-5. Their pretty boy quarterback John Parker Wilson manages games but doesn't win them. All of their games against good schools were close and he only threw 9 TDs all season. Alabama really doesn't have the firepower to blow people out and it wouldn't be surprising if Utah won this game close. Utah has managed to win its close games and this shouldn't be any different.

So I expect a 4-1 post season, with the Utah and Colorado State games being toss ups. No one remembers the regular season but bowl memories are quite long so hopefully it will turn out well for the non-BCS folks.

Good win against Portland for the Jazz

2008-12-12T08:23:00.000-08:00

Last night's win against Portland was the best win for the Jazz all season. They haven't played many tough games so far and Portland has been playing well of late. The Jazz really dominated this game for 4 quarters and it was never even that close in the second half. Their two wins against Portland are their only quality wins this season. The last couple home games haven't inspired confidence and fans are not used to having 3 home losses so early in the season.

The most impressive thing was how they ramped up their defense when Portland would make mini runs. Multiple times when the lead was cut to 8 or 10 the Jazz would respond with stops. They were much more active than usual and in the second half used some strong double teams forcing bad passes. What was also different was some strong double teams in the post which is unusal for Sloan. They also didn't let Portland get in the lane and get to the free throw line. TV announcers always talk about the Jazz's no lay up policy - or better put - just hack anyone that gets by you defense. I can't stand watching Mehmet Okur not trying to block a shot but just hack to stop a guy from getting a lay up. If you just played good defense, other teams wouldn't hit 70% of their lay ups in traffic as they hit 70% of their free throws. The Jazz haven't been hacking as much but it might have to do with Harpring and Boozer being injured as they are the some of the worst foul mongers.

Another nice wrinkle was having AK play Roy during the fourth quarter. Roy went crazy in the 3d and it looked like he was ready to take over the game. AK guarded him the rest of the way and really shut him down. He didn't have many touches and his 7 points came on a 3 where Kirilenko rotated off, a lay up where Kirilenko lost him and a meaningless lay up in the final minute. For some reason, Sloan has lost confidence in AK and has been playing him less and less minutes and not having him finish games. If you want AK to be a useless player by the end of the season, keep playing him 22 minutes a game and have him sit at the end of games. His handling of Andre will go down as his biggest mistake and possibly the reason why this current group never wins a championship.

I'm not worried about Williams as it will take some time for him to be at full strength. He looked good passing the ball last night with some great dishes after penetration but he still looks ordinary with this finishes. He gets a ton of his lay ups blocked and he had another bad shooting night. When he goes into the lane, I hope that that he passes because it is embarrassing how many time his shot gets thrown back at this face. I'm sure this will get better as he gets more explosive.

Milsap and Okur really have been playing excellent of late. You have Boozer go down and the new stars show up. I love Milsap's energy and hustle and he has developed some nice moves around the basket. He definitely is more than just a bruiser down and shows a nice touch around the basket. Of course he doesn't have the offensive skill of Boozer but if Boozer played with half the heart that Milsap plays with on defense then the Jazz would be set. Milsap still gets overmatched by bigger guys. He had a hard time with Aldridge last night but he gets blocks and steals that Boozer doesn't even try for.

As impressed as I am with Milsap's play, this team is really different with Boozer playing. Let's say that Milsap starts all season and averages 15 and 10. That would be impressive but Milsap gets his points in completely different ways than Boozer does. Boozer creates his own shot and commands a double team in the post giving other players open shots. When the Jazz need a crucial score, they can go to Boozer for a mid range jumper or go pick and roll. Milsap doesn't have the same automatic scoring. Automatic scoring is a premium in this league. Guys like Boozer get 15-10 on off nights. Scoring in the NBA is largely dependant getting double teams and forcing bad match ups. Boozer creates mismatches every night where as Milsap doesn't. That doesn't mean that Milsap integral to the team's success, in fact he might be the team's MVP so far this season. We will see what happens when he comes up for contract because if Boozer leaves, it would definitely soften the blow if Milsap is here to take his spot. Right now, they have the best of both worlds and Milsap coming off the bench for 25+ minutes will mean success for the Jazz.

It makes me sick every time Harpring comes in the game and the announcer states the obligatory "oh he is the toughest guy in the NBA." "He is more of a football player, he comes from a football family." " He is so tough, just a great guy to have on your bench." As you might have guessed, I really dislike Matt Harpring. He had has day as the star of the team 5 or so years ago and he did a nice job but those days are long past and so are his knees. For some reason, Sloan never gets mad at him for jacking up a shot every time he touches the ball. He plays for 8 minutes and takes 4 shots. He can't defend anyone and had 3 fouls during his limited duty. He is an awful passer and I'm surprised that there haven't been more injuries on the Jazz from him hitting people during practice. He is definitely the crazy white guy on the court that is running around like a mad man breathing really hard, can't control his momentum and knocks you in the nose with an elbow. Sloan has to stop playing this guy. If you are going to give 8 minutes to someone, why not give them to CJ miles or Morris Almond? Why not give them to Kirilenko who is getting less than 20 minutes a game? I know it is only 8 minutes but this team is deep and you have young guys that are developing and need time out there. Announcer should recognize that he is just a skillless brute and a huge liability on defense.

Quarter year report

2008-12-05T11:58:00.000-08:00

It is only early December but 25% of the season is already over for the Jazz. After 20 games we have learned some things that we didn't know before the season started and some things are still up in the air.

What we have learned:
CJ Miles is an NBA rotation player.
While he hasn't put up amazing numbers, you couldn't have expected much more from a 21 yr old that hasn't played much. 20 games, 19 starts, 22 minutes a game, 10.7 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 2.1 apg and two 20+ point games. It is strange watching the Jazz with some many guys that can catch an alley oop. There are tons of players that show flashes of brilliance for one play or one quarter but what is more impressive is his confidence. He is staying in the Sloan offense and takes that shots that present themselves. Miles looks to pass to the right player and he is confident enough to pass up a shot. I wish he played with a little bit more energy, like Morris Almond, but Almond is a desperate man playing for a contract so there is a different level of urgency. I can see CJ taking all of Harpring's minutes as instant offense off the bench. He has the potential to be a solid starter if he learns to do something other than score. You have to love how effortless that lefty jump shot looks.

Kosta Koufos, back up center of the future.
The Jazz haven't had a big man that can block shots since Ostertag and nobody wants to go back to the days of Ostertag. He probably lost more assists for Stockton than actually scoring off his passes. I'm not projecting Koufos to be a starer in the league anytime soon but he has done some nice things in limited playing time. He plays with a lot of energy. He moves pretty well for a 7 footer and shows a decent jumper. He doesn't have rocks for hands. That's it, that all someone has to do prove he is better than Collins. I don't see why Sloan wouldn't play him 10 minutes a game to get him some experience and hopefully block a couple of shots. As I am writing this, I am stunned by how stubborn coach Sloan is. The fact that Collins is still on this team and up till last year was getting 10+ mintues a game is amazing. It is 4 on 5 when he is on the floor. I would much prefer Koufos or Fesenko taking all of his minutes.

Sloan's system is more important than players
The Jazz have had a ton of injuries and different players getting minutes every night but the Jazz continue to get their wins and even without Williams or Boozer, this would be a .500 team. It shows the strength of an offensive system that enhances the abilities of the players. Really talented teams can win running and gunning but as the Olympics this past summer showed, a good team offensive can compete with an ultra-talented team. Half of Brewer's points are lay ups off of back cuts and dives to the basket that are system driven. Harpring did a lot of the same things but took more jumpers than slashing to the basket. Miles will eventually learn the same things. Shandon Anderson and Bryon Russell used to do the same things 10 years ago. Jerry Sloan has his faults but having an offensive system that works is what keeps him employed as an NBA head coach. Sloan would do wonders with a young talented team that needs discipline.

Still waiting for answers
Morris Almond's future
He didn't get his contract extended but has been getting some playing time these last couple of games and even played most of the fourth quarter the other night. Almond has been playing well with the limited minutes that he gets and it sounds like he works hard in practice. He plays with good energy and is a natural offensive player. The problem is that Brewer and Miles are in front of him. Brewer is a better athlete and defender. Miles has more potential as an all around player. I see Almond becoming an Eddie House type gunner in a few years. I hope they deal him and get a 1st round pick in return.

AK fully loaded or shooting blanks?
AK has played pretty well as the sixth man and his numbers have inched back towards his production from a couple of years ago. Overall, everyone is very happy with what he has provided off the bench and how he has handled the perceived demotion. There are a couple of things that make me wonder if the joy will last throughout the season. AK needs touches to be involved in the offense and for that, he needs minutes. His minutes are already tailing off a little as they did as the season progressed last year. When the team is at full strength, his minutes might get cut even more. I think it has to do with Sloan being harder on him than other players on the team. It puzzles me how much Sloan complains about his play when AK does more of the little things that don't show up in the box score than anyone else. He leads the team in deflections and hustle plays. In the end, it will depend on Sloan's ability to adapt and let AK play his game. If he can't do it and limits his minutes, AK will be unhappy and his production will tail off. At some point AK needs to be in Golden State playing for Don Nelson and with his taller twin brother Andres Biedrins. Also, Deron Williams doesn't like passing to AK. Just watch, he hates to pass him the ball.

Team Defense
So I mentioned in the season preview that the biggest issue with the Jazz is their lack of good team defense and that still holds true. The Jazz have get a lot of steals but there is a huge difference between stealing the ball and playing good defense. If you watch the team down the stretch of a close game, the Jazz might force the occasional turnover but they don't get regular stops. You don't see the defense tighten up and force tough shots. Steals means jumping in passing lanes. Stops means good team defense. This I think, falls on the coach. Good team defense is system oriented and Sloan's unwillingness to experiment with more zone defenses, double teams and different switching schemes is what keeps the Jazz from being better.

Just a playoff team or contender
The Jazz are definitely a playoff team but there are few title contenders. The definite contenders so far are Boston, LA and the Cleveland. The possible contenders are Houston, New Orleans, San Antonio and Utah. That's it. Portland is still too young and Denver will be a nice regular season team but without enough talent to win it all. The Jazz defense and road record will tell you if they are better than last year.

College Football: Good wins, bad wins, good losses, bad losses.

2008-11-30T03:58:00.000-08:00

The college football regular season ended yesterday with some big upsets and some real confusion on the top of the BCS picture. Although I would like to write about the relative merits of each of top 5 team and why they belong or don't belong in the title game, ESPN and CNNSI will do that for me x 10 for the rest of the week. There are still the SEC and Big 12 title games to be played but we will have to wait for them to add to the confusion. The biggest problem in polling is that there is no standard for what wins and losses are worth. What is the difference in the value of a win against a Top 10 team vs a bottom 40 team? Between a win against a weak opponent vs a loss to the number one team? Between a loss to a really bad team vs a loss to a good team? Why does a loss at the beginning of the season mean less than a loss at the end of the season? Computer numbers try to do this but then you see crazy things like a 5-7 Virginia team being ranked ahead of a 10-2 Tulsa team last week. At some point wins are wins and losses are losses and no human would rank a 5-7 team over a 10-2 team.

I stated in a previous post that the BYU has no incentive to play tough games and I think that holds true for all schools. The difference between a good win vs a easy win is not great enough to risk a possible loss. The penalty for losing a tough game is enormous, virtual elimination from BCS consideration and millions of dollars lost in payouts, exposure and recruiting. Why risk it? Alabama is the only undefeated among the top 5 and it is most likely due to playing the weakest schedule. Its best wins are against Georgia and LSU, which don't look so good now. Compare that with Texas that had to play Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech on consecutive weeks, there is no question as to who played the tougher schedule. Even if Alabama beats Florida it would have played only 2 teams in the top 25 at the time of bowl season. If you were the head coach, which schedule would you pick if boosters are demanding a championship?

There are going to be a lot of Boise State fans out there that want a BCS bid but nothing on their schedule justifies it. Utah and Boise State is another good example of why teams should schedule bad teams. The difference between them in the polls is just 3 spots but Utah played a much tougher schedule. Boise State's best win was vs. Oregon at Oregon and then the rest of the schedule were pretty much automatic Ws. So what did Utah get for beating BYU and TCU this year? three measly spots (and a BCS bid.) If Utah had the choice to switch those teams and play Nevada and Hawaii instead, you get a much easier schedule and still a higher ranking than Boise State.

Despite the confusion, I am still against non-BCS power teams playing each other during the regular season. While Utah and Boise State playing a non-conference game would clarify the who is best argument, it just eliminates non-BCS teams from rankings and media attention. How else will anyone know about Boise State unless it is undefeated? Do you think anyone at ESPN would care about a one loss Bronco team? The non-BCS are the uncool kids that the cool kids don't want anything to do with. The only way to make them pay attention is to be good enough to beat them and not beat up on each other. BYU and Boise State will start playing in a couple of years and I think it will just eliminate the loser from the national spotlight. Sure it makes for entertaining football but that isn't looking at the big picture. Anyway, how much credit is BYU going to get for beating a team that no one thinks is really that good. They will say that BYU got a win vs an overrated team and that Boise State was exposed as the weak team that they are. The rosier alternative would be not playing each other and playing terrible teams, winning and having more teams that go undefeated for the season.

MWC fans would like to add Boise state to the mix to add credibility to the conference but I don't see the benefits. This year all four non-BCS powers are in the top 25 but what would have happened if Boise State was in the MWC? It would have been very difficult for all of them to still be there as it would tack another tough game on each other their schedules, and 3 on to Boise State's. The Bronco's might be 9-3 this year and not ranked at all. Other issues are that that Boise State has not had historically had strong basketball program and its non-revenue sports also aren't as competitive as the MWC's. Finally, Academically the MWC aren't all Harvard's but are at a different level than Boise State. If I were to have a say, I would have TCU move to the Sun Belt and Utah move to the MAC so that everyone can go dominate their own little conferences and be players in BCS race. Lets petition to have BYU change their contract with Boise State to Bowling Green.

This is why people want a playoff but these same questions will have to be answered to determine who will get in to the playoff. College Basketball doesn't have national champion controversy but there is a lot of controversy about who gets invited to the tournament. In basketball it isn't that big of a deal because the confusion is over the final spots between 64 teams. The last team invited rarely makes any real noise during March Madness. The largest a college football tourney could be is only 16 teams. It wouldn't be crazy to see the number one team lose to the 16th ranked team so getting the right teams would be very important. Even acknowledging the problems, it might be better to have controversy surrounding who gets in to be the champion, and not who the champion is.

Disgruntled Players

2008-11-28T11:19:00.000-08:00

Perhaps it is because I've always been somewhat of a head case, I'm loathe to criticize disgruntled players like the average fan. Players are seen as overpaid egomaniacs that cry as soon as they don't get their way but I try not to see them that way. I see them as people that are trying to find happiness just like everyone else. Sure, making 20 million dollars a year can warp anybody's perspective but I don't think an exorbitant salary gives fans and media a free pass at unbridled critisim. We as fans say that if we were making that kind of money, we would go out there and give it our all every night and never complain. What I say is that fans should get off the internet at work and do their job well before we talk about others. What it really comes down to is that NBA players are human and some humans work hard every night and some need extra motivation to give it their all.

Stephon Marbury is probably one of the top five guards in terms of overall talent and athletic ability. He has speed, size, and leaping ability that few point guards have. He even looks chiseled even though he doesn't seem the type to spend endless hours in the gym. A 20 million dollar contract and a new coach later, his career is now more known for the trouble he is causing off the court than on the court. If you haven't been following, it appears that coach Dantoni asked him to play the other night and Marbury refused or channeling his inner Bartleby, that he would prefer not to. Reactions have ranged from Dantoni's utter disbelief to teammate Quentin Richardson saying he doesn't support Marbury to fans thinking this is more of his selfish antics. The one thing I don't read is support. Granted, he is not the most likable guy but I think he is doing the only thing he knows to maintain his dignity.

The Knicks at the start of the season were clearly going a different direction and Marbury was not going with them. Marbury played sparingly in the preseason and has not had a regular season minute - despite having career numbers of nearly 20 points and 8 assists. The Knicks brought in Chris Duhon who has played decently but isn't a NBA level starting point guard. They gave Nate Robinson all of the back up minutes and the message was very clear - Marbury wasn't wanted on the team and they were looking to get rid of him.

So if you were Stephon Marbury, how would you feel about being told that lesser players were going to get your minutes. That your hometown Knicks feel that you are so destructive of a presence they don't even want you to practice with the team or play during garbage time. This is often talked about in terms of a messy divorce and that is exactly what it is, a very messy divorce. Their love has turned into hate and there is so much hate that one partner is acting illogically and spitefully to advance it own way forward. I'm talking about the Knicks of course. The divorce was a long time in the making with Marbury the current fall guy for Isiah Thomas' reckless antics. Marbury's only choice was to accept their plans and sit on the bench and use his leverage, a 20 million dollar contract that the Knicks are obligated to pay but didn't want to pay. What would you do in a divorce, just let the other side humiliate you and then take your money too?

Where was Quentin Richardson at the start of the season when Marbury wasn't playing? I didn't hear him sticking up for Marbury saying that he should get playing time because it would be best for the team. Why is best for the team now and wasn't best for the team then? The Knicks didn't trade a point guard. Jamal Crawford isn't a saint either. He is someone you hate playing with. He is the guy on the playground that thinks he is the best player on the court and shoots every time he touches the ball. He is sitting in the corner yelling for the ball and you pass him the ball to shut him up. Then he does some crazy dribble move and takes a fall away jumper with 2 guys on him and makes it. Now he thinks he can take any shot he wants except he misses the next six shots.

So you are still living in the same house as your ex wife and she makes some deals that put her in a situation where she needs your help. She comes to you and begs you for help and even says that maybe that you can work things out for the next year or so. At this point, Marbury has been beyond insulted by the Knicks. This isn't some fight between two friends, this is now war between two enemies and reconciliation is not possible. Why would Marbury put himself out there and help his former partner when she went and told the rest of the world that he was useless. That players half as talented were better than him. That he is the cause of the team's problems. That he is being selfish. That they were better off without him, all in front of his friends and family. Crawling back and playing for the Knicks would look desperate and there is no way that if I was in that situation would now go back and get abused. Divorces happend for a reason and the reasons in this one are clearer than most. Marbury should stick to his guns and force the Knicks into doing something that helps Marbury and not just themselves.

Why didn't Dantoni and Walsh think of needing Marbury before they traded Crawford? I doubt that they just thought of moving Crawford. They were looking for a buyer since the beginning of the season and had been showcasing him to increase his value. They did a good job with that. Very smart to also showcase Randolph when no one wanted him before the season started. Marbury isn't exactly a character guy but the Knicks have been unfaithful to their fans and players for many years now and Marbury should hold out for every dollar that he is owed and make the Knicks pay for every mistake they have made.

The Derrick Rose Bulls

2008-11-25T07:20:00.000-08:00

The Jazz lost a tough game last night to the Bulls on a last second shot by Larry Hughes but it felt like the Bulls were quicker all night. The score was only 101-100 despite the whole game being fast break after fast break. At first the Jazz tried to match them at the running game and they did a pretty decent job but the Bulls were just slightly more athletic. Watching the entertaining first half, I was reminded of how different this Jazz team is from the ones of the past. Brewer is a great finisher and that alley-oop that he caught was the first one like that from a Jazz player since David Benoit. Miles and Price can both dunk the ball and Milsap runs the break really well too. This team is not lacking for speed and leaping ability but it isn't the style of play that they can maintain all game. They still play best using their break as a secondary weapon and relying on their half court offense to build their leads. Other teams, like the Bulls can run with the Jazz and can out sprint them in a track meet. No team, except for the Spurs, can out execute them in the half court.

Derrick Rose was really impressive last night. He is as tall as Deron Williams but looks a bit quicker and with better hops. There were some plays last night where defenders underestimated his speed and he just blew right by them. What was very nice to see was his mid range jumper which most youngsters don't like to take. We'll see if he will turn out to be a point guard but he could be a great combo guard. He looks like a very strong rookie of the year candidate.

The Bulls are a good example of a talented team that is not well assembled. Almost every position has someone that could be near all star caliber but they don't play well as a team. The Bulls signed Deng to a huge long term deal and he comes off the bench yesterday to score 2 points. Tyrus Thomas is immensely athletic and he comes off the bench to score 2 points. Andreas Nocioni would be a fantastic sixth man on another team. Ben Gordon can score but he is an undersized 2 guard that doesn't deserve a huge contract. I think Gordon should have taken the offer from last summer because I don't think he is going to see that kind of money again. There are a lot of scorers in this league and most are more versatile than he is. Is he much better than Catino Mobley? He could be a nice compliment to Rose if Rose learns to play more of natural point but I doubt he will be in Chicago long enough to find out. If someone gives him 10 million a year, they are going to be regretting it for the life of the contract. I bet the Bulls wish they didn't give Deng so much money right now either.

The Jazz lost but I am still optimistic about their play. CJ Miles is making regular contributions and is doing it in an efficient manner. Okur has had 2 good shooting games in a row and is looking like he is in end of last season form. Overall I think the team is in good shape. A starting five of D. Williams, Boozer, Okur, Brewer and an improved CJ Miles and Kirilenko, Milsap, Price and Korver off the bench is very formidable. The Jazz have a lot of players who need minutes and I wonder if it would benefit them to trade Boozer by the deadline so that they don't lose him for free when he opts out of the contract. Korver and Okur will want to stay in Utah but I even if Boozer publicilly said that he was staying in Utah I wouldn't believe him. Packaging him with Almond might net the Jazz a defensive presence that they sorely need. With all of the steps that the Jazz are taking with their young guys, it is still all on the offensive end. The Jazz need their 2d best player to make a commitment to the defensive end or I can' t see this team being much better than contenders and not title holders.

NBA notes Thanksgiving week

2008-11-24T09:50:00.000-08:00

Happy Thanksgiving week! The NBA season is already almost a month old and this past weekend the Knicks made a splash by moving two huge contracts. Kudos to the Knicks for trading two guys that had almost no value at the beginning of the season.

If you watch Jamal Crawford play, you are amazed at some of the shots he makes and more amazed by how wild the rest of the misses are. He is an undisciplined scorer with no conscious that would be best coming off the bench for a good team for 25 minutes. He shoots a low percentage and doesn't pass the ball well either. Between Marbury and Crawford, it looks like Crawford was the better teammate but that isn't really a ringing endorsement. He will fit into Don Nelson's style of play well, just like he fit into Dantoni's style well because of the lack of emphasis on defense, or shot selection, or anything other jacking up crazy shots.

No one has ever doubted Al Harrington's talent. He can score, handle, rebound and shoot so he shouldn't have a problem on the Knicks. His biggest problem is that he thinks he is the best player on the team and he should be the focus of the offense. That is probably the biggest problem among talented NBA players, the lack of acceptance of their place in the pecking order. On a bad team, Harrington could average 20 points a game but his team would lose 50 games. On a good team Harrington is the third option, rebounds and defends the other teams best player. He's been in the league long enough to know where his place is and if he doesn't, then you don't want him on your team of he destroys the team's chemistry.

The Zach Randolph deal was just unloading a large contract for two guys that have no future with the Knicks. Tim Thomas is one of my least favorite players. He plays when he wants to but he usually doesn't, unless it is contract year and then he plays well. Classic guy who is running to the bank to cash his paycheck and never looks back. Catino Mobley is an undersized shooting guard that definitely can score but is overmatched by taller guards. Again, he is a good back up playing too many minutes as a starter. I'm not sure how Randolph fits with Kaman as they both really dominate the ball but the Clipper's season was over before it began. As long as they don't give away players to the Lakers, who cares what they do.

The Knicks are basically throwing away this year and next year so that they can have the CHANCE to get Lebron James. Two whole seasons thrown in the trash just for the opportunity to give a guy a max contract. Lebron James is Lebron James but does that make any sense? I guess you could say that this season was going to be a lottery year and that next year was hopeless as well but how can you do that to your fans? How can you expect fans to care about your team for the next two years if the management had said that they aren't going to care. If you have season tickets this year can you get a full refund? I would be really upset having to watch a starting lineup of Chris Duhon, Wilson Chandler, Quentin Richardson, David lee and Catino Mobley. Is that exciting? One of the most expensive tickets in the league and this the team they are going to put out for the next two years. Even worse is that they gave their number one pick to Utah a while ago that is protected this next year, but is unprotected the following year. That means that if they stay bad for two years like they plan to, the Jazz are going to own their 2010 lottery pick. Hope it ends up being number one.

There are a lot of free agents going to be available in 2010 but there a couple of issues that I have an issue with this forward thinking. When was the last time that a free agent turned the fortunes of a team around? Trades can turn change things for a team but I can't remember the last time that a major free agent signing changed the future of a franchise. Most free agent signings are too long and too high priced and end up backfiring on the team. I'll have to look up recent free agent signings and how many of them justify their contract. Actually, the Jazz signed Carlos Boozer and Okur the same summer, then got Williams and two years later really reaped the benefits. Those were reasonable signings for guys that were competitively priced. That rarely happens in the free agent market.

Role players learning their roles

2008-11-23T13:39:00.000-08:00

In a previous post, I mentioned that championship teams have role players that know their roles. Everybody has to be comfortable with the contributions that they are making. They have to come in and be energetic and defer to the stars when the stars are in. A malcontent can disrupt even the most talented of teams. Gordon Giracek was only a bit player last year but I couldn't think of a worse role player. He thought too much of himself. He demanded the ball and shot whenever he touched it. He wanted minutes when he didn't deserve them. He even thought he was a good defender which pointed towards his inflated ego. Statistically, Korver hasn't been much of an upgrade but Korver knows his role on this team and that is is much more important than talent. Oh, and he is a better shooter too.

I'm just going to forget the San Antonio loss even happened. It seems like Utah hasn't won there since Adrian Dantley was on this team and when you have George Hill and Rober Mason turning in video game like performances, you just chalk it up as one of those crazy losses.

The Suns, the Bucks and the Memphis games were good examples of how the team is developing. Two years ago with Boozer and Williams out, this team would never have had a chance to get a win. Just not enough offense. Now, the bench guys know how to run Sloan's offense. CJ Miles with 2 back to back 20 point games was impressive, but more impressive was that it wasn't on forced shots. He did it when the shots were there for him to take. Same with Brewer last night, It wasn't a case of Brewer being hot and just taking crazy shots that go in. Anyone can have a hot night and take nutty shots that fall but different guys are playing well every night within the concept of the team. One night it is Milsap, another it is Miles.

I've never been a big CJ Miles fan as he looks like he is running half speed most of the time but his play of late has been phenomenal. I'm hoping that all of Harpring's minutes go to him and that CJ learns to play a little tougher defense. Brewer's numbers are not much different than last year but you can see a huge difference in his confidence. Now he comes around screens looking to shoot and as awkward as his shot looks, its falling. I don't cringe when he pulls up for a 15 foot jumper. I just hope that it doesn't mean he stops going to basket because that is still where he makes his money.

This little stretch of injuries is going to help the Jazz tremendously by the end of the year. Williams and Boozer will be consistent and Okur is going to do what he does. Milsap looks like his offensive game has improved with some nifty little post moves. His defense is what really sets him apart and I bet he averages 2 blocks a game if he got more minutes. Kirilenko is playing better than last year but I'm still waiting to see if he can improve his defensive numbers. Part of the problem is minutes. He just isn't getting enough. He is the most versatile player on the team and deserves to play 35+ minutes, especially when the key players are hurt. It makes me crazy to watch Sloan stick with his rotation and limit him to 30-31 minutes. Winning without their stars is going to pay dividends in the long run.

10-2 Disappointing year for BYU

2008-11-23T12:38:00.000-08:00

Expectations were so high this year you wonder if in the end that it worked against BYU. A high preseason ranking, dreams of a perfect season and secret aspirations for a second national title might have been too much pressure for even the most talented team to bear. Last night's Utah vs BYU game was close until the fourth quarter and then the pressure got to Max Hall. He uncharacteristically threw five interceptions, practically his tally for the entire season. Can you blame it all on Hall? I think some of the blame falls on the coaches. The differences in the outcomes for the two different teams are as disparate as their philosophies in self-promotion.

I'm sure that Bronco Mendenhall's slogan "quest for perfection" was conceived with the best of intentions. Every school in their heart of hearts is hoping that they go undefeated and have a chance at the national championship. It is a part of sports to aim for the best, to strive for something that is realistically out of reach. The fans and media sure did buy into the idea that BYU had the potential to go undefeated but football isn't golf. It isn't an individual pursuit with a stagnant competitor. It is an undulating team sport with dynamic opponents that you can't predict. Utah finished strongly last year and privately they felt that they could win the MWC. Some even mentioned that both teams could meet undefeated but BYU was the team that won most of the attention. Utah quietly went about their business. Even with BYU's loss to TCU, they could have salvaged the season against their hated rivals. The problem is that BYU didn't plan for an opponent that was stronger, faster and in the end, more perfect than they were.

The polls don't matter at this point for Utah as they have won the automatic qualifier for the non-BCS. Boise State also won in a close game so it was good for the MWC that Utah won or Boise State would have won the bid. You have to wonder about a conference where a team can go undefeated in 04, 06 and so far in 08. Even as dominant as USC has been over the last five years, with some serious NFL talent, they manage to slip up to a conference rival most seasons. Some will say that it proves that Boise State is a great team but I think it says a lot more about the quality of their schedule and the weakness of the conference. I had written that Boise State would have posted the same record as BYU if they had played BYU's schedule. Well, I think BYU goes undefeated if they play Boise State's schedule. TCU too. Same with another 20 teams in other conferences. You can't blame Boise State for their conference and they did beat their lone ranked foe on the road in Oregon, but I don't feel their team is cheated out of a BCS spot, they simply didn't deserve it. What more could they have done? Nothing really but the same could be asked for Utah. What more could Utah have done to have a chance at the national title? Nothing, but no one feels bad that they won't even be considered.

So it looks like BYU is going to the Las Vegas Bowl to play some awful Pac-10 team. It would be nice to have another chance at a decent school in a bowl game but I'm afraid that they would lose, thus going 0-3 vs good schools. Its better that they play a mediocre team like Arizona so that they can eek out a victory and preserve some of their dignity. There is always next year. Hopefully they have learned their lesson and will start the year humble instead of having it force fed to them by better teams.

Should BYU fans be rooting for Utah?

2008-11-18T21:36:00.000-08:00

This weekend's contest between BYU and Utah is probably the most anticipated game in the history of this rivalry so hopefully it lives up to expectations. Most games with this much hype turn out to be blowouts. There is a lot more on the line than bragging rights between family members. Major media outlets had been talking about this game even before the season began. In fact, why isn't this game covered on ESPN! Talk about a wasted opportunity to showcase its talent. The most important game in the history of the conference and only 2000 dish network subscribers will see the game on TV. Whatever the contract dispute, it shows some shortsightedness that needs to be reprimanded. Why not sign a one year deal just so that this game gets on TV? The problem with the Mtn is that it only reaches subscribers, which means you are a die hard MWC football fan already. The people you are trying to reach are general college football fans who are interested in a good game but wouldn't normally turn on a BYU game. How can you ever expect to recruit nationally if no one has even seen you play?

Final BCS scenarios.
So the non-BCS is looking like a 3 horse race with the finish line this weekend. Utah obviously has the clearest path. It controls its own destiny with computer numbers that Boise State can't match and a win preserves their lead in the Harris/Coaches polls. Utah might even leapfrog USC with an impressive win vs. BYU. Also, the Ok-Texas Tech game will determine if they jump a 2 loss Okalahoma. I doubt Texas Tech falls below Utah from a loss to a top 5 Oklahoma team.

Boise State is almost guaranteed the spot if Utah falls this weekend. They still have a semi-tough game against Nevada on the road. All they can do is win out and hope that Utah loses. Nevada played them well last year and more importantly, can a freshman quarterback really go undefeated? Going undefeated in even the worst conference is difficult. All it takes is one bad game. This is that bad game.

Ball State falling behind BYU last week was their virtual elimination from a BCS bowl. Even though Ball State plays a strong Central Michigan team helping their SOS, BYU's computer numbers will jump even more with a game against a #7 Utah, thus preserving their current lead if both teams win.

BYU needs to beat Utah and Boise State needs to lose one of the their last two games. It would be hard to rank a Utah team higher than a BYU team that just beat them and has the same number of losses. Boise State would probably fall 10 spots if they lose to any WAC opponent so that would place BYU around 12 in the polls, high enough to qualify for the automatic bid. They looked like they were finished a couple of week ago but all of the pieces might magically fall into place for them to get to their goal.

Long term outlook of non BCS teams
So looking past the immediate ramifications of a win or loss for either school, what would a win or loss mean for the long term. Part of that question is answered by another question. Setting all allegiances aside, which team would best represent the non-BCS in a bowl game?. In other words, who would have a chance at winning against a team like Oklahoma, Texas, or USC?

Boise State getting the bid is the least attractive option for the non-BCS. It has played the weakest schedule of the 3 schools and in one of the weakest conferences. It would be like Hawaii all over again but at least Hawaii had a Heisman Candidate in Colt Brennan that made the team interesting. A BCS bowl loss would only prove to detractors that non-BCS teams play bad teams and don't really belong there in first place. This might justify the eventual removal or stiffer requirements for automatic qualification for non-BCS teams. Of the three schools, it has the most modest chance of sustaining itself long term. The program is a young program with a lot of success that is dependent on their current coaching staff. It hasn't had the time to endure conference changes, coaches leaving, player scandals and the like that can tear a program down. The non-BCS doesn't need two hit wonders. What it needs are marquee teams that represent the group well. With all that being said, 2 BCS bowls in three years would be very impressive.

BYU getting the bid has its advantages and disadvantages. Getting a one loss team in would mean that the non-BCS had gained tremendous respect over the last few years. Nobody would ever have predicted that a one loss team would even qualify. A BYU win over a one loss team such as USC or Alabama in a bowl game would be a tremendous argument against the one loss handicap that the current non-BCS teams receive. It would justify the MWC's high rankings throughout the year and further the view the notion that it iis better than some of the BCS conferences. Sustaining that for two to three more years would provide legitimate credentials to gain entry into the BCS party. BYU also travels well and would bring its own fans to a game in any destination, especially Arizona. It also has the highest chance of sustainability as it is the best known program, the one with the most history and will be ranked in the top 15 next year in the preseason with many skill positions returning starters. The big down side is that not having an undefeated team is just not that exciting. An undefeated team makes it historic, David vs Goliath, a must watch college football game with a possibility of having an outside claim at the national championship. There is a sense of the unknown creating intrigue. A one loss team will be..well...boring for everyone outside of Utah.

I think that Utah getting the bid would create the most drama. It would have the best wins resume and it has some decent history on its side. Two BCS games with two different coaches shows sustainability. It would prove all of the things that a win by BYU provides but as an undefeated team. It could end up as high as 3d in the polls. If the national title game is close and Utah wins in a blowout, it could even get a few votes for #1 in the final AP poll. Finally, I think it is the best team all around, offense and defense that would give a good game to a BCS opponent. BYU also has had a horrific bowl history. Even last year's Las Vegas Bowl win was pretty pathetic considering UCLA wasn't even ranked.

Still, being a BYU fan you don't necessarily care for what is best for the conference, more what is best for your school so I can only hope BYU wins in a good game.
Prediction: Utah 28-BYU-21.

Home team vs the Road team. Which team is the real Jazz?

2008-11-17T23:53:00.000-08:00

Two good opponenets, two competitive games, two different outcomes. The difference? Two different venues. The loss to the Lebron Jameses wasn't surprising or embarrassing. It was the last game of a 5 game road trip and the 2d half of a back to back so it was more of a scheduling loss but they had a lot of energy for 3 quarters. The game was close throughout until the Cavs went on a run in the fourth. The Jazz didn't have their full squad and the lack of poise in key situations shows on the road in tight games. 1-4 on the road trip with all four losses being winnable games. The home team always makes a run in the NBA and I'm not too worried because this is where a good point guard makes the difference. Not that it made much of a difference last year with their poor road record but last year was last year. This is Williams' team now and in those pressure moments on the road in a close game when the crowd is going crazy, he has the composure to slow the game down and find the right people.

My brothers and I had a rim that went up and down in our backyard and we would do crazy jams on it for hours. Lebron James looks like he is playing on an eight foot rim in his backyard all of the time. He gets up so high and dunks it so hard that you wonder if he is genetically engineered to play sports. This whole Kobe vs Lebron arguement ends this year as he officially takes the throne as the best player. Kobe has more refined skills but the sheer difference in physical strength, speed and size is too great to overcome. You don't even need to see his averages of 30-8-8 on a mediocre team to see his superiority. Anyone who watches him for even one quarter knows it is effortless. He is the big brother that says "enough" and bullies his way to the hoop. Kobe looks like a skinny KG out of high school compared to Lebron. Does he work out or just naturally look like that? He would be the greatest tight end of all time if he chose to play in the NFL. The combination of his quickness and size, you could go over the middle and he would be faster and bigger then anyone in the secondary. You could just lob it over the top and tell him to go jump for it with his 40+ inch vertical. I think most basketball players would make great wide outs in the NFL. Karl Malone might have been a fantatic tight end with his hands. He could catch anything that was within 10 feet of him and he would hurt people with his razor elbows.

Last night's game against the Suns went about the same for three quarters as the Cavs game except at home they have more reserve. They plug into their crowds energy and go on a 12 - 0 rub at a critical point in the game to pull out the win. The final score wasn't close but the game was close. Amare is unstoppable. A beast. He could average 14 points a game on dunks. He is another pure athlete almost in the Lebron class. Now if he only developed some post up moves to go with the dunks. They should do an experiment where they take 6-9+ guys with hops, long arms and coordination in the NBA and make them red zone wide outs in the NFL. Can you imagine Amare on a fade route? He would be Randy Moss but SIX inches taller and a higher vertical leap! Most of the cornerbacks are 5-11 to 6-3 and would be sniffing his armpits on touchdown grabs.

The whole team had a nice game last night. The second unit again with Knight, Milsap, Kirilenko, Korver broke this game wide open. The +/- numbers bear it out with that group being about +15. This group has been consistently extending leads and playing better than the first unit early in the season.

CJ had his first 20 point night of the year and shot very well. You could see this coming as the last couple of games he shot it better and he looks more comfortable in the offense. I expect him to have his ups and downs but I can see him putting in 8-10 points a game by the end of the year. Boozer was solid again. He has a tough assignment almost every night with the league having so many good power forwards. You wonder why he moves so well laterally on offense and can't on defense. Actually, I used to be the same way when I played as a youngster.

AK getting to the line is the essential to his offense. He was 8-8 from the line and averages more free throws than anyone else on the team. You can see what a boost the team gets when he blocks a shot. It is sad to see Shaq at this stage of his career. I remember three years ago watching a game where Yao blocked his shot straight up. It wasn't on a double team or from a help defender. That was when I knew that he wasn't the same the Shaq anymore. The old Shaq never had his shot blocked. If he had the ball tipped he would come down the next five possessions and just dunk on the fool. Now Shaq gets blocked three times in one night with one rebound. Its time for him to devlop his law enforcemnt and rap carreer. I'm exposing my younger brothers here but I admit they used to own one of his rap CDs. I'm sure they would like to bury that in their past.

What happened to Koufos last night and why did Collins play for 12 minutes and 55 seconds? His line was 0 pts, 0-2 from the line, 0 assists, 0 blocks, 0 rebounds and 2 fouls. He drives me crazy. Worst player in the NBA. Why does Jerry Sloan still play him minutes when you have young guys that could benefit from the experience? Harpring is the same story. He played 11:49 and that is almost 12 minutes that Miles, Brewer, AK, or even Morris Almond could have used. I saw some article in the SLTribune saying that the Jazz could have used his defense against Lebron James. What is the media's fascination with this guy. Announcers love to talk about how tough he is but no one mentions that he isn't productive anymore.

BYU's first big win! College Football Round up

2008-11-15T20:53:00.000-08:00

BYU 38 Air Force 24!! Whoo hoo! From my last post readers might have thought that I was a Utes fan but in the interest of full disclosure, I admit that I have BYU leanings. This is the first victory against a winning program all season and although Air Force isn't a national power, they have had a good season. Their two losses had been to Utah in a close game and to Navy in a rivalry game lost on special teams mistakes. They haven't played the toughest schedule in the world but you get the sense their unorthodox approach would give many good teams fits. In the end they are a small program that doesn't have the size and speed to compete with the bigger schools but tends to overachieve.

Utah disposed of San Diego State and while it isn't quite the undefeated heavyweight fight that fans had hoped for, two top 15 teams playing for the Mountain West Championship isn't bad. As I stated in my last post, BYU needs this win to legitimize their ranking and season. Their schedule allowed them to lose to TCU, have a couple weeks to mope around and then gain some momentum going into the Utah game. I expect a close game as the talent level on both sides are about equal. Utah's offense has been up and down all season and so has BYU's defense. Whichever of the two shows up on Saturday will determine the winner. Max Hall has had four good games in a row and I don't expect him to have a problem with Utah's defense. I'll make a prediction later in the week.

Utah already has a solid resume. Their win over Oregon State is looking better and better each week. The win over TCU showed they can win a good defensive battle. They've already beaten Air Force and although Michigan had their worst season in history, a win in the Big House has historical significance for a program looking for national recognition. A win over BYU would mean an undefeated season, a solid conference championship and three wins over top 25 schools. In fact, you could say that this team would be more deserving of a BCS bid than the 2004 team. The only difference is the level of star power. No Heisman candidate Alex Smith and no hot shot coach Urban Meyer this year.

College Football Notes.
ACC
The ACC revolving door keeps spinning and spinning. By my count, they have had 8 different teams ranked during the course of the year. Every week, there are three new teams ranked somewhere in the bottom half of the top 25 and the very next week they lose. This week North Carolina(16), Florida State(19) and Wake Forest(24) all lost. These three will drop out and three new teams will show up next week and promptly lose. Look for BC, Maryland and Miami to take their places. Does having having 10 teams in a conference between 5-5 and 7-3 mean that the whole conference is good or that the whole conference is bad?

The Decline of Notre Dame
Notre Dame's star is gets dimmer and dimmer as they get further away from their last national championship. I know that they beat a pretty good Navy team this week, but the fact that Notre Dame fans are so ecstatic about beating a midshipmen team that they had previously beaten 40+ games in a row shows that this is not an elite program anymore. It is difficult for me to understand how a school that recruits nationally as well as they do can go through this long of a rebuilding process.

Big 12 up, SEC down.
The conference supremacy race has been between the SEC and the BIG 12 all season but we are seeing some separation down the strech. The SEC's true colors are showing as a top heavy conference with its share of weak teams. Florida has crushed teams all year long and is the favorite to represent the SEC in the BCS championship. They still have to beat Florida State and Alabama, but they certainly have the means to do it.
If you really look at Alabama's schedule, they only have one notable win vs. Georgia and an overtime victory vs. LSU. The rest of it is pretty weak and it is reflected in the computer numbers. You get the feeling that someone will expose this team and Florida is the team to do it.
LSU does not have a good win this year. They have lost all of their big games and nearly losing to Troy proves they are a middling squad who never deserved to be in the national title picture. Anyone who has watched them struggle with their offense knew they weren't going to be very consistent.
Georgia is a disappointment as the season's preseason #1. Their marquee win is over LSU. If they play a decent team, the games are close so look for Georgia Tech to give them a good game.
Auburn and Tennessee's early season rankings proved to be creations of the east coast media machine. Everyone jumped on the Vandy bandwagon but then tires went flat. In essence, the SEC is a two team race while the BIG 12 has five excellent teams that can compete with anyone in the nation.

Conference Rankings
1. Big 12 - no contest. 5 teams ranked in the top 15. All of the games between top teams have been close, competitive contests. Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma have true championship potential. None of the top teams have bad losses, only losses to good teams.

2. SEC - distant second. Urban Meyer might be looking at his second national championship.

3. Big Ten - Penn State and Ohio State might not be title contenders but are very good teams. Respectable middle of the pack with Michigan State, Northwestern and Iowa distinguishes the Big Ten from the MWC. On the other hand, the bottom has suffered a lot of bad losses to non-BCS squads.

4. MWC - Solid top 4 teams but terrible bottom 3 teams. Best year in the history of the conference. Bowl victories will mean more than ever. Please sign a contract with ESPN. What is the VS channel? Don't they show a lot of wrestling?

5. ACC- A lot of parity in the league with any team being able to defeat another team on a given week. This would be a tough conference to go through undefeated.

6. PAC 10 - You wonder how good Oregon and Oregon State are but if Oregon State beats Arizona and then Oregon, they are going to the Rose Bowl. That will mean 2 BCS bids as USC will get an at large birth. They were humiliated in non conference play this year but you have to like that they didn't schedule cupcakes like the rest of the big conferences.

7. Big Least - Pollsters feel obligated to rank someone so they just pick whichever team has the best record that week. Did you even know that Cincinnati had a football team? Who knew that they were good last year too? Hopefully the BCS drops this league for the MWC in a couple of years.

Should BYU even be ranked in the top 25?

2008-11-14T23:45:00.000-08:00

The knock against non BCS teams is that they play weak schedules and that they are ranked too high. Boise State and Ball State are undefeated but no one believes they would be undefeated in a BCS conference. They might be 5-5 in the SEC or the Big 12. Boise State would have trouble going undefeated in the Mountain West but it isn't their fault that they are in the WAC. Fairly or unfairly, Utah, BYU and TCU haven't had the same criticism levied against them because of the relative strength of the MWC this year. While I do feel that winning the MWC means something, I'm not sure if BYU's schedule has proven that they are a top 20 team.

BYU is ranked 14th in the coaches poll, 17th in the BCS but their ranking largely lies in being ranked highly in the preseason from last year's success. BYU fans will boast that they have a very healthy 9-1 record. They are also one of 11 teams in division 1A football with one loss or less. If they win the next two games they will be conference co-champions of the fourth best conference. Their only loss came to an 18th ranked TCU team with a very good defense. All of this is impressive except it disguses their awful schedule. Computer numbers have BYU's strength of schedule as low as 107(Sagarin ratings) which isn't much different than Boise State(115) and Ball State(118.) When the schedule was made, BYU didn't know that Washington was going to the worst team in college football. Same for UCLA being worse than last year. Here is BYU's schedule game by game.

1. W - Northern Iowa at home. Win fodder against an AA team. Every D1A football team other than Michigan beats this team. Can't count this win.

2. W - at Washington(0-9). Close win in the last second against a team that hasn't won a game all year. A win is a win. Washington's closest loss was 35-28 to Stanford.

3. W - UCLA(3-6) at home. The shutout isn't looking so hot right now as UCLA's best win is against 5-5 Stanford. One of those 5 wins was against Washington.

4. W - Wyoming(4-7) at home. Another meaningless shutout. Best win is against a Tennessee team with a lame duck coach. Still a nice win for the MWC!

5. W - at Utah State(2-8). Best win is against Hawaii. Boise State also crushed this team. Rivalry games count a little bit but does Michigan get credit for beating Western Michigan or Central Michigan or Northsoutheastern Michigan?

6. W - New Mexico(4-7) at home. Best win vs. Arizona. Probably the most impressive win for the MWC this year. New Mexico isn't a bad team but they are still 4-7.

7. L - at TCU(9-2). BYU gets blown out and TCU clearly has superior athletes. TCU's best win? Again, Stanford at 5-5 . Their best game is holding Oklahoma to 35 points while losing 35-10 in a game that was over by halftime. TCU might be overrated also.

8. W - UNLV(5-6) at home. BYU wins on a last second touchdown drive. This is BYU's best win to date. Let me repeat. THIS is BYU's best win to date. UNLV had a nice win against an underperforming Arizona State team.

9. W - at Colorado State(4-6.) Another last minute win. This was an important game 10 years ago. Colorado State's best win is UNLV.

10. W - San Diego State(1-9) at home. This was an important game 15 years ago. Have to stop living in the past. Only win is against Idaho. Good thing the MWC has the WAC to beat up on.

Combined record of opponents - 32-60 winning percentage of .347. No wins against a winning team. One blowout loss against a good team. I think Boise State and Ball State would have the same record if they played this schedule. In fact, I bet the top 40 teams would be 9-1 or better if they played this schedule. Does that mean that BYU is a bad team? No, just that they haven't proven anything this year. All of BYU's wins should count as one big win. Ok, perhaps 2 wins. They are like a 2 - 1 team. BYU has three real games left - Air Force today, Utah and then a bowl game. For them to stay ranked at the end of the year, they need to beat Utah. A win at Air Force and then a loss in Utah will only prove that BYU can beat up on mediocre teams but can't hang with the top programs. A 5-1 record after their bowl game would justify their current ranking and not perpetuate the idea that non-BCS teams are ranked too high.

BYU doesn't try to schedule four tough non-conference games because they don't need it to get national recognition. They usually schedule one or two tough non-conference games and two or three cream puffs. BYU is the one team in the non BCS that has the clout to get home at home series against good schools. Most smaller programs have to schedule 2 road games for every one home game against a name brand program. What incentive does a school like Ohio State have to play against Boise State? If they win, they were supposed to win being the BCS school. If they lose, then they suffer the embarrassment of losing to a non-BCS school. BYU doesn't even want to play tough games. If BYU didn't have to play TCU this year, say that they had played SMU and won, they would have a perfect record and probably be ranked in the top 5. If they had scheduled 4 tough non-conference games, they might have gone 2-2 and not be ranked at all. Same team, just different schedules. Which schedule would you choose if you were the athletic director? My gripe is that BYU is the one small conference team that can schedule good teams but they don't, and the teams that want to really can't.

The Mighty Charlotte Bobcats

2008-11-14T16:40:00.000-08:00

The Upside of Injuries.
Ugly teams, uglier game. Ugh. The Jazz were missing half their team but they still should have had enough to beat Charlotte's sorry group. The Jazz lost another tight game in the final 2 minutes. We are going to have to reserve judgement on the Jazz for a couple of months as the team is still transitioning. All of these injuries might have a silver lining for a team that is used to being the model of stability in the NBA. Deron Williams wont be at full strength for at least a month and that gives Ronnie Price time to develop into a point guard. We are finding out how good Brevin Knight is. Harpring being injured has given CJ Miles a little bit more playing time. Even Okur leaving for personal matters has given Kosta Koufos a chance to show what he can do. Better that the Jazz experiment now and find out if their guys can play or if they will need somebody else by the trading deadline. Oh, and Collins being injured means that the team can keep him on the bench for the rest of the year.

Harpring was back for the game so that he can continue to run around like a crazy chicken. I love Harpring's energy but at this point he needs to retire. If they keep him, they can use him as "the enforcer." It would be like hockey where they keep a thuggish brute on the team to come in to beat up on the other teams best player. They can bring him in to pull a Robert Horry and hip check star players into the stands and then get thrown out. What else could he do for the team that would be more valuable?

Kosta Koufos got some minutes tonight and really played well for a rookie. He didn't exactly endear himself to coach Sloan by taking the first two shots of the game. Other than that, he was active, blocked shots and rebounded well enough to warrant some more time. He didn't look like a super mega stiff, just a regular stiff which is pretty good. He reminds me of a taller Kris Humphries. Now only if he learns not to shoot every time he touches the ball.

Ronnie Price had his first good game of the year. He was confident and shot well. CJ Miles didn't have good numbers but he did little things well. He doesn't take wild shots and knows how the offense flows. I can see him getting more of minutes through the year. I was happy to see Williams sitting out today, even if meant the difference between a win and a loss. A healthy Williams makes a difference in the last two games. The Jazz lost tonight's game in the last 2 minutes and that is when Williams is at his best. Williams is the one player on the team that can create his own shot, which is crucial when the offense breaks down. Having Williams play too early and risking injuring his ankle to get a couple of wins is shortsighted. I would keep him out for 2 months if his health depended on it.
Did you see that Boozer dunk at the end of the game?

Michael Jordan and Isiah Thomas, great players, terrible front office personnel.
The road trip facing the NBA minor league ( The Eastern Conference) continued last night against the Charlotte Bobcats. Jordan has only been in charge of this team since the summer of 06 and so you can't blame everything on him, but this is a badly assembled team. Jordan isn't the GM, Rod Higgins is, but Jordan is the owner that has the final say on decisions. 3 drafts and so far the first 2 look drafts look like giant busts.

2006, 3d overall pick - Adam Morrison. Great college player but everyone questioned where he was going to fit in the NBA. For a shooter he isn't that great a shooter, he doesn't rebound and he doesn't pass so he is basically useless. He probably is the biggest bust of the '06 draft. The draft overall wasn't deep but they missed out on Brandon Roy(6), Rudy Gay(8), Ronnie Brewer(14), Rajon Rondo(21), Farmar(26). Contrast that with Portland who had three picks in the same draft and ended up with Lamarcus Aldridge, Brandon Roy and Sergio Rodriguez. Of course, Morrison had a good night against the Jazz while I was writing this.

2007, 8th overall pick- Brandan Wright traded for Jason Richardson. 22d overall- Jared Dudley. Wright is young and athletic if he got some playing time in Golden State he might prove that he can play. I used to like Jason Richardson when he was an exciting dunker. Then he fell in love with the three pointer and now he is an inefficient scorer that has a huge contract. Why would you want to pay this guy 12 million dollars to jack up 3 pointers and not do much else? He is the second best player on a bad team, the third on a good team or the best on this team.
Jared Dudley is a hard working back up that will stick in the league somewhere and not a bad pick for late in the first round.

2008, 9th overall pick - DJ Agustin. 20th overall Alexis Ajinca. DJ had a lot of success at Texas and its too early to tell if he was a good pick. The problem is that they have Raymond Felton, the 5th pick from the Deron Williams/Chris Paul draft, who is still developing as a player. Basically they are giving up on Felton, waiting another 2-3 years for Augustin to develop and letting Felton walk at the end of the year. Point guards other than Paul and Williams take time to develop and it isn't fair to compare Felton to those two. Felton is a talented player that will end up being a starter somewhere else.
I don't know anything about Alexis Ajinca but anyone over 7 feet tall has a 90% chance to being drafted in the first round and a 1% chance of being good.

Signings
Why are all contracts five or six years? Even bad players get six year deals. How many players actually stay on their team for six years? Other than stable teams like the Jazz, players worry about a trade as soon as the ink is dry on their contract. There is nothing that handicaps a team more than bad contracts. Isiah's Knicks are a good example. Actually it started with Scott Layden but Isiah decided he could make it worse. If you have a bad draft, you have another lottery pick the next year. If you sign a dud, you have to pay him for the next six years and he goes against your salary cap thus limiting your free agent signings.

Gerald Wallace - 6 years, about 60 million in 2007. Wallace had been underrated for years until he signed this big contract. Now he is over payed. Would be a great player coming off the bench on a playoff team.

Matt Carroll - 6 years, 27 million in 2007. Why are you going to pay an undrafted 3 point specialist 5 million a year? Is the third member of the overpaid white trio along with Brian Cardinal and Brian Scalabrine. They fulfill the secret NBA clause that forces teams to have a scrubby white guy that the fans can get excited about. The Jazz have a reverse clause that limits them to eight or less black players on the team without paying a fine.

Emeka Okafor - 6 years, about 70 million in 2008. Centers are hard to come by Okafor is an intelligent, hard working guy that plays good defense so I can understand this signing. He was the first pick in Bobcat history and a solid citizen but he is going to be a millstone around the neck of this team. He has back problems and even if he averages 15 and 10 with 3 blocks for six years he still wouldn't justify his contract. The Jazz could use a player like him with a better contract.

Another Winnable Loss on the Road

2008-11-12T19:31:00.000-08:00

The Jazz are 1-2 on this road trip and and while they haven't played very well in any of the games, bad teams gives you a chance to win games and all three of these games were winnable games against bad teams. Philadelphia was the "in" pick this year with the Elton Brand signing but they don't look like the team that closed out last year so well. The Jazz looked like they were going to lose to Philadelphia in the third quarter until the second unit came in and saved them. The Jazz are developing confidence in sending in the bench in key moments of the game, sometimes with none of the starters on the floor. As long as Brewer keeps going to the basket, it is really hard to stop him and his slumps wont last long. It is nice to see players other than Boozer and Williams winning games for the Jazz. Brewer took over last night's game and Milsap won one of the Clipper games. Kirilenko again did a nice job off the bench and the Jazz should have the ball run through him in the high post more often.
I don't see the point of rushing Williams back. By the time the playoffs come around, no one is going to remember this road trip. Why risk injuring his ankle again before it is fully healed for a couple of meaningless early season games? I'm not worried about his weak numbers. In a couple of weeks he will be back where he needs to be and back to his normal self. You can see just from a couple of plays the great connection that he has with Boozer. Boozer knows exactly when to make his cut to the basket on the pic and roll. Williams knows exactly when to send the bounce pass. The amazing thing about Boozer is he doesn't pick up a lot of charges. He is excellent at taking the pass and then changing direction around another defender in front of him and getting an easy lay up. There isn't anyone in the NBA that is better at it than Boozer.
The Washington game was just awful, awful, awful. They looked tired. There was no hustle and they made rookie JaVale McGee look like he drinking Comcast high speed with power boost. He was literally everywhere blocking shots and grabbing rebounds. Does anyone other than Paul Milsap get his shot blocked more often than Carlos Boozer? Boozer has a hard time with taller players with long arms and tonight he was blocked at least three times by McGee and Thomas. Kirilenko looked like the AK of two years ago that stood around and took a Valium before games. Is there a reason that he doesn't even jump for rebounds unless the ball is heading straight to him? There was a time when AK looked had McGee's energy with more skill. I said in a previous post that his numbers are near his old numbers except in a couple of categories...blocks, which is down a good block and a half per game and personal fouls. Kirilenko was in foul trouble all the time before because he was so active. If you are going to get blocks, steals and rebounds you will pick up the occasional over the back or foul on a shooter. He doesn't even try to block half the shots he used to go for a couple of years ago. I wonder if he is just less athletic now that he is getting older.
CJ Miles finally had a nice night. During the course of a game, he has that one play that makes you want to believe that he can be really good. You fall in love with how smooth his jumper looks. He has better shot selection this year. I think its because he knows that he has regular minutes and he doesn't have to come in and jack shots to prove that he can play.
Kosta Koufos didn't look as stiff as most first round white stiffs. He shoots jumpers like a basketball player and he walk around like he has cement blocks on his feet. I already declare that he is better than Collins and take all six of his minutes per game. My hopes aren't high that he will ever be more than a career back up.
Korver hasn't had a big game yet. He hasn't played badly but he really hasn't shot the ball that well. I think that fans are just happy that it is Korver coming around screens and not Girecek ready to catch and then be called for travelling.
NBA notes
Washington was 0-5 until getting their first win against the Jazz tonight and that says a lot about this team. Washington has three legitimate stars if Gilbert Arenas plays, but as good as Arenas is, he is not the type of guy that makes his team better. He is the player that you hate playing with because he shoots every time he touches the ball. You have to give him the ball because he is your best player. Problem is that without him, Jamison and Butler just don't have enough to beat most good teams. I'm increasingly convinced that great teams have stars that are two way players. If you look last year's finals teams, Boston and LA are good examples of stars playing good defense. KG's defense carried this team. Paul Pierce's defense on Kobe was one of the biggest reasons they beat LA. Kobe playing tough D sets the tone for the rest of his team and lets them know that they can't slack off and just play offense. Butler is athletic enough to be a great defender but Jamison and Arenas just aren't defensive minded guys. That is what is going to keep this team from being better even when Arenas comes back.
I like Elton Brand. He is a very solid PF who plays hard every night and also plays very good defense. Surprisingly for a guy who isn't a leaper, he blocks a ton of shots. If I were to choose between Carlos Boozer at 10+ million for one year or Brand at 5 yrs 80 million, I would take Boozer but only due to the bloated contract. Brand is the better overall player and is a good citizen but paying Brand like a 1 when he is best suited as a 2 will mean salary cap problems. When I mean 1, I mean a franchise player. 2 meaning the second star on the team. Can you imagine a championship team with Brand as your best player? I can understand what Philadelphia did by overpaying for him with a nice season last year. They probably felt that getting someone like Brand would make them a title contender. They should be able to compete but Brand is a 2, Igualdola is a 3 and so is Miller. Thaddeus Young looks like he is going to be pretty good but are they going to have the money to pay him? Iguadola just signed a new deal, Dalembert is making 11 million a year and Andre Miller is also making 10 million. If they plan on not resigning Miller this next year, Philadelphia will see that Miller was the reason for last year's success.
Next game for the Jazz is against Charlotte and the best chance for a win.

The Road Woes Begin

2008-11-10T16:34:00.001-08:00

Turnovers
Was there much expectation of a win in NYC? With the Knicks playing reasonably well and the Jazz on the road, they didn't have much of a chance but it was a poor effort for a first game on a road trip. There were too many turnovers yesterday which is reminiscent of last year's games. The Jazz have never been particularly good in the turnover department, but the numbers are actually a little deceiving. The Jazz use an offense involving a lot of cutting and passing and it leads to more assists. They were 2d to the Suns last year in assists per game. They were in the middle of the pack in turnovers per game. Their assist to turnover ratio as a team ranked fifth last year. It makes sense as more assists means more passes. More passes would naturally mean more turnovers. More assists also means a higher shooting percentage, which the Jazz are always near the top. Of note, the teams with better A/T ratios were all teams with solid offensive systems lead by efficient point guards. New Orleans, Phoenix, Detriot and the surprisingly efficient Raptors run by Jose Calderon. In reality, the Jazz could always take care of the ball better and Andre Kirilenko could also throw less passes through three defenders but the Jazz should be praised for their overall ability to take care of the ball.

Addition by Subtraction
Take away 30 million in contracts from one of the worst teams in the NBA and what do you get? A winning team. Dantoni is either crazy or a genius but his sitting of Marbury and Curry is working miracles so far. The Knicks always had talent but never seemed to be able to work well together on the court. This is probably more of a testament to Dantoni's coaching ability and his commitment to a system than proof for Marbury's detractors. It also speaks to the Larry Brown's inability to adapt to his players and Isiah Thomas' complete coaching ineptitude. The team's talent is in offense. Eddy Curry, Zach Randolph, Marbury, Richardson, Crawford, Robinson are offensive players not known for their defense. What Dantoni does is he stops trying to jam square pegs in round holes and just cuts the holes into squares. Genius. What I don't agree with is sitting Marbury. He would run an uptempo team very well and even if you didn't plan to keep him, you could showcase him for 2 months and then trade him after he regains his value. Now the Knicks are going to have to eat his contract, not that they have problem with eating contracts. Duhon is not a starting point guard in this league. Its like the Charlie Ward days all over again. You might get excited if he plays well for one or two games but the next game is going to be a dud. The malady of franchise point guards that lose favor with their coach, lose their confidence and then lose all value should be named Stevie Franchise syndrome. I can't think of 2 players as talented that have diminished so quickly without a physical ailment or substance abuse.
If this Wilson Chandler thing works out, then Dantoni needs to called Einstein, or maybe Michelangelo for his Italian roots and ushering in the Knick renaissance. David Lee is a good, solid, energy PF who does all the dirty work that a team needs. Wilson Chandler is a shorter, less talented version of David Lee. I don't think the Knicks should overpay for David Lee but not playing him isn't going to decrease his market value or help the team.

College Football Notes Follow up

2008-11-09T16:46:00.000-08:00

The polls came out today and the AP poll clearly shows its east coast media bias by placing Penn State 7th and Utah 8th. I can't explain it any other way except that nobody watches Utah on television so they don't know how good they are and Penn State is on TV every week. If you objectively compare their schedules, it would be hard for anyone to claim that Penn State has had the better year.
Same Opponents
Penn State and Utah have both beaten Oregon State and Michigan. Penn State crushed both teams and Utah barely won both games but wins are wins at this point in the season. The Michigan game was also on the road for Utah. Slight edge Penn State
Conference Schedules
The Big Ten is really down this year and Penn State's wins are over an Illini team that just lost to Western Michigan, an OK Purdue team, Wisconson which is the biggest disappointment in the BCS and Ohio State is their signature win, but when was the last time that Ohio State has beaten anyone good? They seem to win the ones they are supposed to win but lose to anyone that has any talent. Penn State even manages to avoid having to play Minnesota and Northwestern, the fourth and fifth best teams in the conference.
On the other hand the MWC is having its best year on record with even Wyoming this week beating Tennesee in Knoxville. Utah has beaten Colorado State, UNLV, New Mexico, and Wyoming which are average teams but not much worse than Penn State's Big Ten schedule. They have a win over a good Air Force squad and their signature win is over TCU this last week.
Edge - Draw
Both teams non conference schedule other than the games mentioned are pretty much cupcakes. Syracuse might be the worst Division IA football program. Did anyone even know that Temple had a football team? Edge - Even
What is nonsensical about all of this is that things are pretty even up till now and then you have to factor in that Penn State has LOST!. They LOST one game and it wasn't even to a good opponent but to an average Iowa team. If Utah lost to even a good team like Air Force, there is no way they would be sniffing the top 10 right now. Penn State loses to a non ranked opponent and they drop only four spots in the rankings? If Utah beats BYU and still ends up being ranked below Penn State, they should just throw the AP polls out for good. At least the AP polls are not used in the BCS rankings. Huge Edge Utah

College Fooball Notes

2008-11-08T21:22:00.001-08:00

This has been an amazing college football season for non-BCS fans. There are 2 teams in the top 10, both with legitimate chances of being undefeated and playing in a BCS bowl. BYU, TCU and Ball State will be in the top 20 and Air Force will probably be ranked 25th this week. 4 ranked teams in one poll for the MWC would be a milestone that proves to a lot of people that the MWC has really improved. I think a lot of objective people would vote the Mountain West at least the fourth best conference, and maybe even the third.

TCU
TCU will probably fall to about 18-20 after losing to a mentally tough Utah team. I think that they were at a disadvantage having not played any close games recently. All of their games have been blowouts (even the loss against OK and the win vs BYU) and there is a different mentality needed with a game that is close in the fourth quarter. Utah has played close games all season and won and that type of training was vital with pressure situations in the fourth quarter. TCU is probably the better, more talented team but Utah outplayed them in this one game elimination for a spot in the BCS.

UTAH
With Penn State losing today, Utah moves up one spot to the 7th spot and maybe even higher for beating a good team in TCU. With the way the schedule works, Alabama, Texas, and USC look like they will win out their seasons and so will only move up. The loser of the OK-Texas Tech game will drop below Utah. Florida has a mildly tough game left in Florida State, but they should win that. Utah will probably still be ranked 7th and BYU ranked 12th or so when they play in two weeks. This is assuming that BYU beats Air Force on the road, which might not happen. I haven't looked it up, but I am assuming that this is the highest that both teams will be ranked while playing each other, which will make this rivalry game even more exciting. Too bad nobody will see it except the four people who subscribe tho the MTN.

BCS scenarios
I expect Utah to beat BYU, but do they have any chance to get into the Championship game? What happens if Oklahoma beats Texas Tech but then loses to Ok State. Oklahoma would be eliminated with 2 losses. Texas wins the Big 12 south division and plays in the BIG 12 championship game. Losing to Missouri would make them a 2 loss team. If Alabama beats Florida to win the SEC championship game, then Florida would also have 2 losses. That would leave only USC to leap frog and comparing the resumes and conferences of the two schools, Utah would have as good or better of an argument than USC. Utah would boast wins over BYU, TCU, Air Force and Oregon State, winning the MWC which is stronger than the Pac 10 this year and an undefeated record. USC has wins over Ohio State, Oregon and Cal, but lost to Oregon State and the MWC has owned the PAC 10 this year. I'm not saying that Utah is better than USC but that their body of work over the course of the year would be more deserving than USC. There are a lot of big IF's in this little scenario but it is amazing that a non-BCS school has a plausible chance to play in the championship game this late in the year.

BYU
BYU is in an interesting position as it looked like they were done after the TCU loss and somehow the computers have resurrected them in the BCS polls. The jumped from 20 to 15 with a sorry win over Colorado State and we will see where they are this week. Perhaps at 13-14 with Georgia nearly losing, OK state now with 2 losses and TCU with 2 losses. If BYU beats Air Force, then like I mentioned before BYU plays Utah ranked 12th or so and Utah 7th. They would most likely end up in the top 12 in the BCS polls but would they leap frog an undefeated Boise State team? Probably not and while theoretically BYU would be the second non BCS qualifier, there is no way that a BCS bowl would pick BYU over Ohio State, Georgia, or Missouri. Too bad that not being chosen is going to mean the Las Vegas Bowl. Why can't BYU end up in a bowl game vs Michigan State, LSU or North Carolina and prove that they can hang with the BCS? The Mountain West undervalues itself by binding their conference winners to play fourth place teams in the PAC-10.

Playoff vs Current System
With Obama mentioning an eight team playoff, the buzz about a new system is gaining strength again. What teams this year would get into an eight team playoff? Would it be conference winners or would it be by polls? As bad as the BCS system is, I don't see any how an eight team playoff would be any better for getting non-BCS in the mix. Would Utah even make it to an eight team playoff this year? I actually think that a guaranteed spot for non-BCS teams for a BCS bowl is about as equitable as it needs to be. The Big 12 and SEC actually get cheated out of a spot in a bowl game by having their conference championship games. A small conference like the Big East with only eight mediocre teams benefits the most as you have a higher chance of winning the conference championship (1/8 is better than 1/12.) I think the fact that Boise State has a legitimate shot at a BCS bowl coming from the WAC, when if they were in any other conference they wouldn't be conference champs, is very generous.

What does thunder have to do with Oklahoma City?

2008-11-07T21:03:00.000-08:00

Do you know anyone that has been to Oklahoma city, wants to go to Oklahoma City or will ever go to Oklahoma City? Few cities with major sports franchises inspire less reason to visit than Oklahoma City. Other than the OK City bombing, does anyone know anything about this city? I'm not even a typical northeasterner that has never been to the Midwest and I still had barely heard of it. I've lived in the Midwest for six years and I was surprised to find out that it has about 500,00 people, which is quite comparable to Boston and much larger than Salt Lake. Sacramento and Green Bay are two other cities with a sports team where I wouldn't even be curious to stop for gas.
Switching cities, especially from Seattle which has a good basketball history and television market to a completely new place seems ill conceived. It isn't that basketball can't survive in smaller markets because it can - as proven by the Jazz and Kings - but moving doesn't cure all of your ills. Teams in smaller markets have to be smarter. They have less leeway to have lean years as your revenue sources aren't as large. You have less room to make a bad signing because of smaller television contracts and lower ticket prices. I know that there were a lot of reasons for this latest move but if Seattle was consistently in the playoffs, Ok City would never have happened. How many years does a team get before it has to leave down again because it isn't winning, which really means poor management. You can't blame the city and the fans but you have to blame the owner and the GM for making poor moves. Ask Memphis when people are going to be sick of losing and it is going to become the Shanghai Sharks of the global NBA?

The Jazz got a pretty easy victory tonight with the whole team contributing. Ok just doesn't have anyone consistent on a night to night basis. Durant is talented and in 2 more years he will be good. I'm not sure what his career will look like as he was predicted to be a future Hall of Famer but early returns don't look as promising. I am thinking more of a 3-4 time all star that leads his team in scoring but doesn't do much else, like a Jerry Stackhouse. Jeff Green looks like he can become a good third option in a couple of years. This team could use some veteran big men to do the dirty work inside and a solid team first point guard like Brevin Knight to get the ball to the young guys. Playing Earl Watson, a career backup, starters minutes isn't going to help improve anyone.
Knight is doing an amazing job running this team right now. Price isn't playing badly but you wonder what is going to happen when Williams comes back. Nobody played badly tonight and everyone contributed. I don't think I give Boozer enough credit for putting up the solid numbers that he does. He doesn't shoot 20 times a game to get his points and he looks for the ball when the team needs to score. He gets his points so easilly, like he hardly works for it. Kirilenko is playing very well and the 2 things that show that he is playing like the old AK are his rebounds and free throws. It means that he is spending more time near the basket instead of camping outside. He had only had three games with double digit rebounds and only 3 double doubles last year, terrible for a guy that is 6-9 and has had years of averaging over 8 a game. Tonight he marked his 2d of each in the young season. Of note, he and Peja Stojakovic are tied for most unintelligible post game interview. I wonder if an American playing overseas has ever done a post game interview in the native language of that country? Sometimes I see soccer players giving interviews in multiple languages and it would be nice to see an American doing that for once. At least in bad broken Spanish with an American accent.
No reason to get too excited about this 5-0 start, beatin up on bad teams at home is a Jazz specialty. Now the Jazz get some tougher games on this next five game road trip. For some reason the Jazz always play poorly against the Knicks and I can see a close loss but it is probably their best bet for a win. If they took 2 out of 5 by beating Charlotte and Washington it would be a successful road trip. The Washington and Cleveland games are back ends of back to backs so it wouldn't surprise me they didn't play well in either game. The team has been together long enough that is should start to win against the bad teams on the road.
Looking at 82games.com, there was a revised +/- list for all players this last season and there are a couple of surprises for the Jazz. I like the +/- rating because there so many things that you can't measure through ordinary stats. Things like tipped passes that lead to an eventual shot clock violation, shots altered instead of blocked or a hustle play that demoralizes the other team are not counted on paper. I think you can capture some of that in a +/- rating and I like how they broke it down into offense and defense. Leading the offense was Steve Nash and with his passing ability that makes sense, even more sense then a big time scorer. For the Jazz, AK came out on top. The team did seem to play its best when he was on the floor. I thought for sure that Williams or Boozer would have the best offensive numbers but in general I think that anybody that watches a lot of Jazz games can see appreciate what AK can do.

Utah vs. Portland

2008-11-05T23:59:00.000-08:00

Portland game notes
It was good to see the Jazz rally from a fourth quarter deficit to win the game, even without Deron Williams. Four games down and Brevin Knight is already stealing minutes from Ronnie Price. The second unit will run much better than last year. The Knight trade was one of those bottom of the transaction wire type deals that most people don't notice. Championship teams have role players who know their role. Fans are enamored with Price's athleticism but a good back up PG is someone who plays within himself. Price hasn't been playing badly but he often tries to do too much. You get the feeling that he doesn't know how to slow himself down just yet. Price has a place in the NBA but it isn't for more than 15 minutes a game or his weaknesses get exposed. Knight ran the team well when they needed a run to come back in the game. The offense was well balanced tonight and Memo had his first good shooting game.
AK turned the ball over but at least he was active. You can tell because he went to the line a lot. He is most effective when he is around the basket and draws fouls. So far his numbers for the first four games are very similar to his averages from 3 years ago when he was playing well so the sixth man role has been working out well but I wonder if his touches are going to go down when Williams comes back and more of the offense runs through him.
Williams will make the teams offense run much more efficiently. Their shooting percentages have been lower than usual and they have been playing at a slower pace than last year and number wise have been giving up less points but I'm not sure that means better defense.

The Iverson/Billups deal
I'm not sure what motivated the deal other than the fact that both teams needed to shake things up. It was a lateral move for both clubs but if I were to pick a winner, It would be Denver. Denver has a nice lineup except that they were playing Anthony Carter starter's minutes at the point when he really isn't a starter. Billups is a solid point guard. He does most things well without being spectacular at anything. On a good team he is your third best player like he was on Detroit. His problem is that he signed a big long term deal and he is not as young as it seems. He developed so late in his career that he has only been a star in the league for five years but he is already turning 32 this year and point guards have a habit of slowing down at this age unless you are John Stockton.
Denver is a talented team that doesn't fit well together. It is a classic situation where the whole is worth less than the sum of its parts. Iverson was just another expensive piece that didn't fit well and it is smart to start selling parts because this team is not going anywhere but the bottom of the playoff race. The team seems directionless. In the summer they give away Camby for free and now they get a veteran point guard that has already seen his best years. Why not trade Iverson for youngsters, picks and expiring contracts to build for the future? If you trying to make a run with this team, why not keep Camby?
Detroit now has three guys that like to shoot first in Iverson, Stuckey and Hamilton. Hamilton can score but almost gives you nothing else. Stuckey can score but I doubt he can come in to be the primary point guard. Iverson is a pretty good passer but he hasn't succeeded at the PG spot in the past and he isn't going to now. Detroit is at the same place that the Suns, Dallas and Spurs are, teams that have had their window close and now are good veteran teams that will win fifty games and look good losing in the second round of the playoffs. Dumars gets credit for being a good GM but if he had picked Bosh, Wade or Melo instead of Darko, this team could have been repeat champs. He was given a slam dunk and he missed it and the one miss probably cost the Pistons one or maybe more championships. Sometimes you look back at the draft and your team was picking 20th and you end up with a dud and wished that they got the second round steal that everyone missed. The problem with that is that you didn't have much of chance to get an impact player with the 20th pick, but missing out on a superstar with the 2d pick sets your team back 10 years. One is buying a lottery ticket and then losing, the other is winning the lottery and then losing the ticket.

NBA notes
San Antonio almost went to 0-4 but needed a heroic effort from Parker to get a win against the Twovles. Duncan and Parker took 62 shots between the two of them and scored 85 points but still needed double OT to win. SA is not this bad but the rest of the team looks like they are ready to retire. Matt Bonner getting major minutes is a bad sign. When they get Ginobili back they are still a 50 win team but you still need role players to win in the playoffs.

Boston looked good winning in Houston the other night. Yao has problems with guys that body him. He loses his balance quickly and Perkins did a great job of pushing him the whole night. Boston with its defense can win with KG only averaging 15 points a game.

It is early but Durant has not looked good. I thought he would start the season shooting better and rebounding better like he finished last year but he is not doing much on a bad team. I wonder if there is just too much pressure for him to produce as he is the star on a young team in a new city.

Go Hawks! When was the last time that the Hawks were 3-0? They just beat New Orleans on the road and have wins against two potential playoff teams, Orlando and Philadelphia. They will definitely have a long losing streak mid season but perhaps if they have enough of a cushion it wont hurt kill their playoff chances.

Road Warriors

2008-11-04T07:28:00.000-08:00

The Jazz get their first road victory of the season against a Clipper team that is going absolutely nowhere. The Clippers go from 47 wins and taking the Suns to seven games in the Western Conference Semis in 05-06 to this team with a completely new roster and is already 0-4. The franchise seemed liked it was going the right direction with Elton Brand but even with the addition of Baron Davis and Camby, this team isn't going anywhere near the playoffs. Davis is a guy that gets the money he is making because he does things as a point guard that no one else can do but he isn't a great leader, he gets injured all the time and if you were going to rebuild, might as well have passed on Davis for a better free agent next year or the year afterwards. Even with a full squad, the team looks like one that is going to get beaten up by the rest of the West. Thornton is going to be a nice player. Kaman at times can look like a top 5 center but he sure is a black hole. At least he plays hard. Camby needs to be on a contending team at this point to make an impact. I still think a team like the Jazz would be perfect but he is making 10 million and salary doesn't fit.
Obviously Milsap isn't going to go crazy like he did the other night every night but he is an underrated scorer. I feel like the Jazz under utilize him only giving him 20 minutes a game but its is hard to find minutes at the PF spot. Boozer needs minutes as he is so efficient down low and watching Kirilenko play more around the basket when Boozer is out lets him score more around the basket and not force him to fling wild jumpers. Kirilenko again played well but you can see that he does all of his damage on most nights with his ability to get easy shots near the basket. He can still rebound when he needs to but he can't be floating waiting for kick outs to do that. You wonder about the future of the team as Boozer is going to be a free agent this next year and then the team is going to lose Boozer for nothing. You have to think that if you can package Boozer and Almond in a deal for a center that the team would end up coming out ok from this situation. AK could go back and play the PF with Milsap playing more minutes making them both more effective. I'm not sure what is going to happen with Memo this summer but it would be nice to be able to resign him at less then what he is making now.
I like Ronnie Price but by mid season Knight might end up taking all of his minutes. He is just more efficient as a point guard, doesn't take wild shots and doesn't hold the ball till the end of the shot clock. Price is going to have improve his shooting but think pass more which you can tell is not his first inclination. Knight is a natural point guard and knows his limitations as as shooter which makes him the perfect fit for a Jerry Sloan offense.

Mountain West and the BCS

2008-11-02T19:13:00.000-08:00

Occasionally I will post about something other than the NBA and this weekend after seeing Texas Tech beat Texas, I wanted to write about college football and the polling system. I actually like the polls, I've always liked the polls. I've liked waiting for the new polls to come out to see who was going to move up and move down and the new teams each week getting ranked. The lack of science behind it, along with the bias of voting on teams that coaches and writers know well and don't know well make it fun to see what other people are thinking. It's like reading an interesting opinion piece from another part of the country except that opinion then turns into fact. Some of the fun of the selection committee for the NCAA basketball tourney is that they have to make decisions, human decisions to determine what teams get in and are left out and it is not purely determined by wins and losses. Cinderella, after all is a love story and computers have never fallen in love.
The top three in the polls I don't have any issue with - BCS conference teams with undefeated records - SEC, BIG TEN and BIG12 but then you have a whole bunch of one loss teams before you get to Utah. Now if there was an undefeated team in the Big East, ACC or PAC 10 where would they rank at this point in the season? I imagine somewhere between 4 and 7 but not as low as UTAH. Does that make sense when the MWC is probably at worst the fourth best conference this year? Why does USC get so much respect even though it plays in a very bad PAC 10 this year? Why is OK state ranked as high as it is? Both TCU(Oklahoma and BYU) and OK ST(Missouri and Texas) played 2 top 10 teams and both went 1-1 but OK state is ranked even higher than a undefeated Utah team. Perhaps it is because the toughest part of the MWC schedule has yet to come, with Utah and TCU playing this week and BYU and Utah playing later on but if Utah goes undefeated in the MWC, it shouldn't be ranked lower than any one loss program this year. I'm not saying that should hold true every year but when your conference plays out of conference BCS teams and wins like the MWC has, has three teams in the top 20 and you go undefeated and you are not even mentioned in the championship talk, then there is a problem with the system. If TCU, BYU and Utah all end up with one loss in conference play, it would be nice if one of them were rewarded with a BCS bowl for playing in a tougher conference. If not, then why not be the best school in a bad conference like Boise State and just win out?
As much as people would like to believe that the poll reflects only the current year, that has never really been the case. It is a composite of the past five to ten years with the added benefit of history if your school has a good football pedigree. You saw it this year at how quickly schools like Alabama and Penn State jumped into the polls just for starting the season 4 and 0 against terrible non conference opponents. It is like pollsters want to rank these guys and as soon as any small reason to justify it comes up, they get ranked. Notre Dame wins 2 or 3 games in a row and people are talking about ranking them. Good example this year is Florida State. A one loss Florida State team that beats up on bad teams gets ranked ahead of BYU last week and then this week they get exposed and lose but somehow still manage to hang on in the polls. That is history taking care of its own. Boise State is a beneficiary of its recent success. Coaches and the media see it as a credible program and even though it has only beaten a mediocre Oregon team and plays in a very weak conference, it is ranked as high as it is due to its five year record. That win against Oklahoma is still paying dividends for them almost three years later. I suspect that if it was San Jose State that was undefeated with the same wins, they would be ranked closer to where Ball State is ranked.
In reality there are only about 20 schools that can be in the championship game and none of them are in the non BCS. BYU was perhaps the notable exception due to the confluence of a couple of factors. One, due to having 2 good seasons in a row, the school was ranked well in the preseason. Two, the Mountain West turned out to be a lot better than the ACC, BIG EAST and the PAC 10 which legitimizes their regular season. Three, and maybe most importantly, it has a national following and has won a national championship which puts history on their side - meaning that pollsters don't see it as an affront to college football to have them play in a big game. The bottom line is that schools without a legacy of football greatness playing well is embarrassing for the college football elite, like a down season of sorts and the powers that be are not ready to relinquish what they feel they have earned. Even though 2 non-BCS teams can qualify for BCS bowls, and this year two will definitely qualify, there will never be more than one due to lost revenue and pressure from BCS conferences to protect their own teams.
The MWC might end up shooting itself in the foot by Utah beating TCU this week and then losing to BYU in the final week. BYU, TCU and Utah in that order will be ranked in the top 20 but behind Boise State. What if BYU beats a 6th ranked Utah team on the final weekend and jump from 13 to 9? Will a one loss team make it to a BCS bowl? In theory, all three MWC teams could qualify for the BCS and so could Boise State. Sadly the second and third places prizes are the disgusting Las Vegas Bowl and even worse the Poinsettia Bowl. Can't the MWC get some decent deals?

Jazz 2-0!

2008-11-02T13:52:00.000-08:00

The Jazz are 2-0 so far and haven't looked great but wins are wins, especially in the early going where anything can happen and the Jazz have had a history of starting slowly. Boozer has been the primary offensive focus and he has been aggressive and effective with 2 strong double doubles. Usually taller players give him a hard time but he is just two quick for anyone on the Clips to guard him and nobody on Denver plays defense except Camby and now he is on the Clips. I've always thought someone like Camby would be a perfect fit for the Jazz and seeing as how cheaply he went for in the off season, I wonder if the Jazz could have worked something out. He would be their answer to the Hornets Tyson Chandler, a big guy that could block shots, grab boards and occasionally take some shots. Camby can dominate a game defensively and he would be really effective going against a team like the Lakers.
AK - AK looked good so far in the two games but I wish he would get more than 9 shots a game. He needs to be more aggressive and have his teammates convey to him that it is ok to be more aggressive. He is a guy that needs touches for him to feel like he is being effective and last season he took 7 measly shots a game and by the end of the season was only playing 25 minutes a game. I like having him play the end of the first and thirds and all of the second and fourth, he should end up with 32 minutes a game and if he would take at least 10-11 shots I think all of his numbers would be up without shooting a worse percentage, getting more blocks, steals and rebounds.
Team Minutes - Brewer is so good around the basket and just from the couple of shots he took, his J looks improved, or at least his confidence in it is improved. They need to find him more minutes, not just the 1st and 3d quarters. He is too good of a scorer without the ball for him not to get 30 minutes a game. Same goes with Milsap when he is not in foul trouble. Both are energetic, play active defense and don't need plays called for them. It seems like every time Milsap gets extended minutes he puts up great numbers and his per minute averages of blocks and steals are also excellent for a team that needs interior defense. The problem is that Korver needs minutes too and now that you gave CJ all this money he needs minutes too. Good thing that Collins and Harpring are injured or Sloan would put them into the game. Those guys get minutes because they know the system and play hard defense, not necessarily good defense but hard defense. Brewer and Milsap have been here long enough to know the system and play hard enough that they should take their minutes this season. Milsap might have to play more back up center to get his minutes.
I don't think it benefits the Jazz long term to be playing more than 10 players a night. There are a young team that needs to time to develop and giving minutes to guys that are well past their primes is not thinking long term. Collins should never see another minute on this team, let alone in the league. Harpring should should sign on to a NFL team that needs a linebacker. Fesenko or Koufos should get all of Collins minutes this season.
Morris Almond - I'm not sure what to think about Almond and not reupping his contract. He looks like he has enough talent to stay in the league because he shoots well and there is always a place for a shooter. Almond will probably be a specialist, a three point shooter who gets 10-15 minutes a game to space the floor. The Jazz in the past always needed a guy like that but now they have Korver and Korver is bigger and probably the better shooter anyway. Oh, and he is white and that earns points with the Jazz since they are historically the whitest team in the NBA. Looking back at the 2007 draft, the only player that was drafted after Almond that I wished they would have picked would be Marc Gasol. I remember watching the draft that year and thinking that Gasol was a steal at that low and with good NBA genes, why he wasn't more highly regarded. This year on the Grizzlies, he is easily going to get 10-10 and starters minutes.
Back to Almond, the Jazz basically are going to have to package him or lose him for nothing. I suspect they trade him for rights to a future late one or early two.
Price and Knight. Knight was always a perfect guy for the Jazz system. He doesn't like to shoot and can pass well, how many other point guards are like that? That is why a guy like Jacque Vaughn stuck around here so long and a guy like Carlos Arroyo was booted out of here despite having a lot more talent. Ronnie Price is a fun player to watch but he has to understand his role on this team. He has lots of guys who can score and so he shouldn't be going 2-8. If he is going to have a bad shooting night he needs to be 0-4 with 6 assists. If he wants to stick on this team, he is going to learn to discipline himself and also needs to shoot the 3 at a higher percentage.

Opening night notes

2008-10-31T01:18:00.000-07:00

The season is three days old and already lots of things to talk about
The Rockets are good. When did a Rocket team score 112 points and Mcgrady only take 10 shots? Artest might be the best player on a team that won 50+ games without him. Mcgrady doesn't have to be ON every night, he can just score when he needs to, grab rebounds, get assists but doesn't have to dominate for the Rockets to win if Artest carries some of the scoring burden. Yao is pretty much automatic at about 25 and 10 every night as long as he is healthy. He is like the Asian kid that used to sit next to you in math class. Not flashy and doesn't look good but always got the highest grade on the test. The Rockets can score, defend, have great one on one defenders, rebound exceptionally and have role players that play their role. No one on this team needs to exceed their capablities in order for them to win. Now if Mcgrady can find a donor to get him some heart, this team might be championship caliber.

The Lakers are good. Last year was the first year that the team had any kind of success and they went all the way to the finals. This year they have the swagger of a returning champion, or at least the favorite to be the champion and they know it. Bynum wasn't amazing last night but he didn't need to be for them to win. What's great about this team is that they are deep enough that no one guy needs to be consistent. Kobe is very consistent but then Odom has always disappeared every second game or so. Gasol can be shut down and Bynum is too young to be consistent, but all Kobe needs is one of them to have a good game for the Lakers to win. Jordan Farmar keeps getting better and is going to take a lot of minutes from Fisher this year, which is good because I've always hated that robotic shooting motion and the put your head down he's going left again drives of his. This is another team that has stars but also great role players. Just of note, I'm not a big Bynum fan but now with that contract he just signed, he just joined the hall of fame for all of the other overpriced big men that get rewarded for playing well in a handful of games. He's better than Calvin Booth, Jim Macilvaine, Jon Koncac, and Erik Dampier but will he be better than Big Country Reeves who was 16 and 8 in his prime. If you don't believe me look it up.

I was watching a replay of Hakeem Olajawon's first game in the NBA today on NBA tv and he was impressive but even more impressive was Ralph Sampson. He was in his second year I think at the time and this guy was 7'4" but moved liked someone 6'8". He was grabbing rebounds high in the air, not flat footed like most 7 footers that lack mobility. There was a possession where he blocked a shot and then Hakeem blocked the next one that lead to a fast break, talk about tough interior defense. Too bad he only shined for a couple of years or that duo might have gone down as the best of all time.

It was a bold move by Dantoni to sit Curry and Marbury the other night. Luckily his strategy worked and the Knicks won but we will see what happens if they go on a losing streak. I can understand Curry not playing because you get the same thing with more efficiency with Randolph. They basically cancel each other out so why have two of them. Knick fans have been waiting 2 years to see David Lee gets starters minutes. What was Isiah thinking? He is the only guy on the team that hustles and he was only playing 20 minutes a game. He can easily average a Charles Oakley style 15 and 10 on pure hustle. He is a perfect compliment to a guy like Randolph because he doesn't need to dominate the ball and he creates his own possessions. I've already said that I'm not a Duhon fan and I think 20 minutes of Marbury can give you more than 20 minutes of Duhon. I like Nate Robinson off the bench but if he is your starting point guard then your team is in trouble. He doesn't like to pass and has too many match up problems defensively to be on the floor for the whole game. We'll see what will happen but its nice for Knick fans to have something to cheer for even if it is only for one game.

Ok, before everyone goes crazy over this Kevin Love kid, I have to remind everyone that it was just one game against a very bad team. I don't know if there is any precedent for a goofy 6'10 white guy that can't jump and doesn't move well to be very good in this league. I'm sick of people talking about this guy's outlet passes, that is all I have heard about since he started last year at UCLA. How many outlet passes can you make in a game, 2, 3? The only guy I can think of that has the same size and movement is Mehmet Okur but he isn't a good comparison.

Predictions for the New Year

2008-10-28T19:05:00.000-07:00

So some random picks and predictions

ROY - Greg Oden. I would pick Beasley if he was on a team without a star like Durant last year. He could jack up 20 shots a game and get his numbers but he wont get as many touches with Wade fully healed and Marion looking to prove himself. Oden wont see many touches either but that actually helps him. He can concentrate on rebounds and good defense. If he averages 12 points on put backs, 10 boards and 2 blocks, he will win the ROY. Others in the mix - Beasley, OJ Mayo. Surprises: Chris Douglas-Roberts and Joey Dorsey. Busts: Both Lopez Twins. The Collins twins are about the retire so these guys can take their place.

MVP - Lebron James. Voters like surprises and winning teams. The MVP doesn't usually go to the best player but usually the best player on a contending team or a player that is playing a level above his previous level on a winning team, but not the best player in the league. Lebron James can play exactly the same as last year and win the MVP simply because Mo Williams is on the team now and they will finish near the top of the East. I don't expect him to put up better numbers than last year's phenomenal 30-7-7 but the team will win more games. Kobe won his MVP and so voters are looking for a someone new. Chris Paul became the new blood last year and is a lock for the MVP if his team wins the West, even if he Deron Williams has a better year. Look for Yao Ming as the dark horse to win the MVP as his Rockets will win their division and be near the top of the West. The Media would love to give it to Yao - he is a great guy and he would fit international image of the NBA that everybody wants to promote.

Random notes
I'm not sold on the Hornets. The Hornets are the Jazz of last year. They were the surprise regular season team that played well in the playoffs. No one had any expectations for them so any success was a bonus. They add Posey and people are declaring them the next NBA champs. I like Chris Paul. He reminds me of KJ. KJ was great but he couldn't take a team to the finals by himself, he needed Barkley. West and Chandler are nice players but aren't superstars. Stojakovic played well last year but he is well past his prime. Morris Peterson isn't a starter but would be nice to come off the bench for instant offense. Posey is the proverbial final piece for a championship team but I think that the Hornets overpaid for a player only useful when well, you just need that last player. Championship teams nowadays need three stars and the Hornest don't have the star power, or the role players to make them a legit championship team. Speaking of comparisons, Deron Williams reminds me a little of Tim Hardaway. Both are deceptively quick with ridiculous crossovers, good jumpers and could lay off the Mcdonalds. I think the Hornets take a step back this year. Losing Pargo will hurt them off the bench.

The Knicks, the Knicks. My hometown Knicks are a mess even before the season starts. We'll see if Dantoni is really as good as people think he is. Chris Duhon the starting point guard? He barely started at Duke. There is a clear distinction between starting point guards and back up point guards in this league. Sometimes teams get away with playing back ups as starters if the rest of their team is great, such as the Jordan Bulls or the Shaq/Kobe Lakers (Fisher is not a real starter as both Golden State and Utah found out) but the Knicks don't have the personnel to disguise Duhon. They have so much dead weight on that team - Curry, Marbury...this isn't a one year rebuilding project, it is more like a three year plan. Nobody remembers how bad Scott Layden was because Isiah Thomas is by far the worst GM in the history of sports.

Best at each position
PG
1. Chris Paul - Steals and already being the #1 guy on his team gives him the edge over Williams.
2. Deron Williams - Becomes Utah's clear leader, needs to take more 3's and play better D.
3. Baron Davis - Too injury prone to be higher, too much talent to be much lower.
4. Steven Nash - You know what you will get with him and has the best jump shot in the league.
5. Jose Calderon - Efficient, will do a great job running a very good surprise Raptors team.

SG
1. Kobe Bryant - Lost a little respect in the Finals when he couldn't take over at will. Also wasn't the best player on the floor at the Olympics most of the time. That honor went to either Wade or James
2. Tracy Mcgrady - Will shine with less pressure on him to perform.
3.Manu Ginobili - A little risky with the injury but had his best year last year and is pretty much unstoppable when he is on.
4. Allen Iverson - Up in years but has always been an underrated passer. Can still score better than most.
5. Kevin Martin - One dimensional scorer is very efficient at that one dimension, needs to develop his passing though to be able to carry a team. At this point is a younger, better version of Michael Redd.

SF
1. Lebron James - Best talent in the game. His physique makes Kobe look like he is still in high school.
2. Carmelo Anthony - Scores so easily, inside, outside, can get 30 on just about anybody without really trying. Doesn't do too much more. Looks like he is happy getting his numbers.
3. Paul Pierce - Showed what he can do in the clutch. Not speedy but gets to the basket when he wants to.
4. Kevin Durant - Will put up big numbers again but needs to average close to 10 boards like he is supposed to. Can't be a one dimensional scorer.
5. Josh Smith - Amazing athlete but little refined skill. Still, he does it all. He is the black Andre Kirilenko. Would love to have this guy running around as my fourth best player on my team.

PF
1. Amare Stoudemire - With Nash passing to him can score almost at will. I love that he doesn't lay the ball up if he can dunk it.
2. Tim Duncan - On the decline but few have proven that they are all around better just yet
3. Kevin Garnett - His decline in numbers meant little for wins.
4. Chris Bosh - Best USA big man this year, has the talent to be at the top next year
5. Dirk Nowitzki - Can take over a game, has proven he can be the man and more versatile than Boozer who would be next on the list.

C
1. Yao Ming - Great shooter and has go to moves to score. No other center has go to moves to score.
2. Dwight Howard - Should be better than Ming soon but needs to work on some moves other than the two hand flush. Looked lost at the Olympics.
3. Andrew Bogut - Getting better each year and who else is going to score for the Bucks?
4. Mehmet Okur - Sadly, even though he plays no defense, he makes this list as he can score better than most and is a underrated rebounder.
5. Greg Oden - Will eventually move up but as a rookie I would like to see him stay healthy and average 12-10- and 2 blocks. He wont be the superstar that most people predict but he will contribute to a winning team.

Western Conference notes on the new season

2008-10-24T18:34:00.001-07:00

The upcoming season is just a couple days away and I wanted to write about some of the stories to follow for the upcoming year.

Andrew Bynum and the Lakers - When was the last time that a young "project" center became the player that people thought he would be? Think about all of the big men projects drafted in the last couple of years in the first round of the draft and if you did the draft over again, would you take that player? Just off the top of my head Jermaine O'neal comes to mind who Portland drafted and gave up on and Al Jefferson looks like he might be a star. Lakers fans and the media are so high on Bynum you thought he was 20 and 10 last year before he was injured but looking at his numbers he was 13-10, which is very good for a young player but where is that headed? Watching him move, he moves pretty well for a big man but he doesn't have the scoring ability of Jefferson and he doesn't have the dexterity of O'neal, nor the tenacity. You wonder about his heart, but he is young and certainly you can 't give up on a guy that is that big and young. The problem is that fans are expecting him to put up Kareem numbers and they should be happy if he puts up 12-10 this year and not mess up the front court balance.

The Rockets - First off I don't see Artest being a problem on this team whatsoever. The team was good without him and it isn't depending on him to be the main guy or even the second guy. How did Houston get this guy for almost nothing? It seems like Houston every year makes a move that fills a major hole in the team. Artest brings them amazing toughness, a toughness that Yao and Mcgrady never will have. I don't think that you can learn it as an adult. It is something that you are raised with and Artest definitely has it. Battier, Artest and even Mcgrady when he wants to be are very good defenders on the perimeter. Yao is a liability in the middle but otherwise the team rebounds well, with Scola, Yao, Landry and Hayes all very good rebounders. Scola is crafty - can you use the word crafty for someone that isn't white or approaching 40? - I really like him a lot, he scores when he needs to and does all of the things that a team needs without the numbers. He is just a really smart player and a great compliment to Yao. You have to love Landry off the bench, he provides tremendous energy and should take almost all of Hayes' minutes. I even like Luther Head as a three point specialist. The question has always been Alston, but he looked very good the second half of last year. Look for Yao to garner some MVP talk this next year with a winning team.

The decline of the Suns, Mavericks and the Spurs - The three teams that have dominated the league the last couple of years are on the decline with aging players and not having done enough to revamp with youngsters. They are still playoff teams but not championship contenders. The Suns with the Shaq move have gained on a television personality more than a basketball player. Steve Nash will be good but his best years are well behind him and he wont be one of the top 5 point guards anymore. Jason Kidd might not even be a top 10 point guard by the end of the season. Dirk peaked the year before his MVP season. The Suns and the Mavericks are good enough to win 50 games but winning 50 games only fools fans into thinking that your team has a chance in the playoffs when it really would be better to retool and go young. As for the Spurs, they are a little bit more complicated as Parker is still young and Ginobili had his best year last year but Duncan is showing signs of age. I think that he is a the point where he isn't going to be the dominant low post player he once was. He is heading for the 18-9 type numbers this year and while the team plays great defense, that is the first thing that goes with age. His block numbers are down, his free throw numbers are down, both signs of losing movement. The supporting cast is even worse with Finley, Thomas, and Bowen all over 35 and they didn't have good years last year so you can't expect much this upcoming year.

Greg Oden - My philosophy on big men is that very few are great and then there are some servicible centers and then the rest are awful. Are there any just good centers? Guys that are good but not stars. Yao and Howard are the superstars but who do you have after that? Tyson Chandler, Andrew Bogut, Eddie Curry, Mehmet Okur, Kaman, Biedrens, big Z are all OK players but none of them are more then the third best player on their teams. I think Oden might be different. I don't think that Oden is going to be the best player on a team but I think me could be in a couple of years the second best player on the team. Maybe like Alonzo Mourning, a star but not a superstar. In a couple years 18 and 12 with good defense but not someone you can build your team around. The thing is that Portland has so much talent he could be the fourth best player on Portland in a couple of years.

Utah Jazz 08-09 season preview

2008-10-21T20:07:00.000-07:00

This will be my first post in what I hope to make a regular blog about the the Utah Jazz, the NBA and I reserve the right to get crazy and throw in a piece or two about life outside the basketball world. Today I will start with my season preview for the upcoming 08-09 season for the Jazz.

This is an exciting year for the Jazz as 06-07 was a breakthrough playoff year and last year was the more realistic growth year. Teams tend to build on the previous year's success until a team peaks and then falls apart. Of course there are teams that just come out of nowhere - the 98-99 Knicks come to mind - but history tends to favor the team that gets past a new obstacle every year till they reach their goal or just don't have enough to get any further. Most teams fall in the latter category - the turn of the century Kings, the Utah Jazz of the 90's, Seattle of the 90's and countless other teams that get better every year but can't get past the last hurdle to make them world champs, not that being conference champions isn't great, or that winning a division isn't great but nowadays the only thing that seems to matter is if you take your team and win the title and while I don't agree with that being the only measure of success, I don't make the rules.

There are a lot of reasons to feel positive about this Jazz team. Last year they lost to the Lakers but weren't overwhelmed by them. You got the feeling that after playing them that the Jazz felt like they just needed to get their act together and that they could beat this team. The Lakers are still the team to beat in the West and the Jazz are probably the second best team in the West as they bring back a lot of experience. The same guys playing together for three to four years now builds unity and understanding that a team needs to get far in the playoffs.

1. Williams the unquestioned leader of the team - With his new contract this past year, his playoff performance in the last 2 years, playing with the Olympic team, having the trust of coach Sloan and his continued improvement each year, this will be the year that he becomes a true superstar and the "man" on the team. You could say that he has always been the man but his first year he was got limited minutes, two years ago he was the new kid on the big stage and last year Carlos Boozer really overshadowed him, especially with the great start that he got last year. As Boozer faded in the playoffs and Williams continued to play his best with pressure, he became the guy that the fans knew they could rely on in big moments, a lot like they knew that the team could turn to Stockton and that Malone was going to disappear in the fourth quarter. Expect even more from Williams this year. 20 and 12 and better defense playing nearly 40 minutes a game. Every good team needs to know its hierarchy to keep people in their roles. Williams is the clear leader.

2.Kirilenko as the sixth man. I'm surprised that they didn't go with this last year. AK plays his best when he feels that he is needed and plays his worst someone else can do his job. As the sixth man, he will be the best player on the floor with the second unit. AK has had problems playing with the first unit for a lot of reasons. Boozer is better down low and so is Okur so that leaves AK spotting up outside which isn't his game. I think you might see Shawn Marion drop in stats too if Beasley gets his minutes near the basket and Marion ends up floating on the outside. I always got the perception that Williams doesn't trust AK, that he doesn't like passing to him. There are lots of instances that I notice that AK is open on a fast break and Williams will purposely not pass to him and look for Boozer who is trailing the play. Williams trusts Boozer. He trusts Okur shooting 3s. He trusts Brewer on a cut. He even trust Hapring coming around a cut but needs to start to trust that Kirilenko isn't going to lauch a wild 3 and that he will make a good decision.
On the second unit, he would be the best passer, the second best rebounder, the best scorer, the best defender and so will make him want to be active. AK does well when people have confidence in him. He needs to play PF more and be near the basket blocking shots on defense and getting put backs on offense. I'm expecting him to be back to near his old numbers of 14 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 blocks and 1.5 steals.

3.Shut down defender. The Jazz need both an interior defender and a perimeter defender but if I were to pick between the two, I would say that they need a shut down wing defender more than the other. They have been destroyed by guys who put it on the floor and get the rim without any problems and it is usually the opponent's shooting guard. Lots of big games against the Jazz for opposing SGs. Bryant, Mcgrady, and Ginobili for example during the past couple of playoff series have basically ran around their defender and get to the basket only to get fouled again and again. Ray Allen and Michael Redd have had 50 pt games against the Jazz. I've always thought a guy like a Ron Artest - while not perfect for the Jazz - would do amazing things for their biggest hole on defense. Brewer is quick and gets steals and is young but I'm not sure if he is ever going to be a shut down defender. You have to have a certain mentality, an attitude that very few people have in the league, but most championship teams have one guy that can guard the other team's best player on the outside. The Spurs happen to have both in Duncan and Bowen.
KG this year really showed how much a team defensive attitude means to winning. Just looking at Boozer and KG's offensive stats, there wasn't that much difference, in fact, Boozer is probably the better scorer of the two and at this point the better rebounder but what they add to they team is incomparable. Boozer almost plays no defense. I would like to see how opposing PF's do against Boozer. He might give the Jazz 20-10 but he might give up 18-10 every night. Okur tries sometimes but then the other half the time is very happy to play matador and just watch the other guy score. I think playing AK more at the PF would be worse for scoring but better for team defense and overall wins in the playoffs. Milsap should find some more minutes as he plays very good defense for an undersized guy. In the end, the thing that keeps the Jazz from moving on in the playoffs is lack of defensive toughness. Can they get a stop when they need one in the closing minutes? I have confidence that they can get a score when they need to but when it comes down to stopping someone like Kobe or Ginobili, I can hear the referee's whistle blowing already.

4. Brewer getting better. I understand why the Jazz resigned CJ Miles as they feel like he has talent and don't want him to go to another team and blossom, similar to Mo Williams, but I don't know where he is going to get minutes on this team. Even if he plays well, I can't see more than 15-20 minutes a game and those minutes can easily be distributed between Korver, Harpring, AK and Brewer. The biggest issue is that Brewer is going to need more minutes this year. He is guy that needs no plays run for him, is moving all the time and scores off of put backs and back cuts and is the team's best finisher on the break. Look for him to play 30 or more minutes a game as his defense improves. He will need to be out there to guard opposing SGs. I can see him easily averaging a very efficient 15 ppg, 2 steals, 3 rebounds, 3 assists without a single play being called for him. Korver demands time as the best shooter on this team and even with Harpring phasing out due to injury and age, AK will play starters minutes and CJ is going to be on the short end unless he becomes a shut down defender, which I don't see in the near future. I think they should showcase him for a couple of weeks and trade him, along with Almond for future picks.

5. The center spot. Okur played well at the end of the year and I don't mind Okur jacking up threes at the end of the game as he has proven to be clutch but the Jazz will never make it to the finals with both Okur and Boozer being strictly offensive minded. I don't see either Fesenko or Koufos contributing more than 5-10 minutes a game this year and Collins is probably the worst player in the NBA and I'm not quite sure how he still finds work. Even if they had picked up an old guy like Theo Ratliff, it would have vastly improved the defense up the middle.

The Jazz don't have a lot of competition in their division just yet and so I expect them to win a third straight division crown but I wouldn't be surprised if they ended up the fourth seed behind the Lakers, Hornets and Rockets or Spurs. On the other hand I can also see them winning the West and getting the first seed in a tight race. The best playoff scenario would be getting to the Western Conference finals again and meeting a team that they could beat like the Hornets or the Rockets, which in this deep conference is very possible. I'm not sure if the Jazz could beat the Spurs in a seven game series. The Lakers would be a better match up but Kobe going to the line gives them an edge. Prediction 55-27 First in division, second in conference. Loss to the Lakers in the Western Conference finals.